Infogol Premier League 20/21 Season Preview

Premier League Title

Liverpool cruised to a maiden Premier League title last season, though they ranked a distant second behind Manchester City in Infogol’s xG table.

This goes some way towards explaining why the team who were 18 points worse off than the league winners are the favourites to regain their title in 20/21.

On the face of it, that is fair, with City boasting fantastic underlying numbers last season (2.7 expected Goals For, 1.1 expected Goals Against per game). However, a lot of their dominance can be attributed to ‘stat-padding’ - basically hammering teams they were beating.

Compare that to Liverpool, who played within themselves and coasted to manageable wins, and the gap between the two begins to shrink somewhat.

% chance of winning the Premier League

We make Manchester City favourites to regain their crown, giving them a 47.8% chance, but, at this stage, the value lies with Jurgen Klopp’s men as we calculate that Liverpool have a 38.9% chance of retaining their title, so are value at the general 9/4 available

Back Liverpool to win the Premier League @ 9/4

Top Four Finish

Manchester United finished last season strongly to secure third, and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side picked up the most points (32) of any team after Bruno Fernandes arrived at the club (31st Jan, 14 games), going unbeaten in the league in that time.

Interestingly, their expected goal difference per game before and after Fernandes’ arrival is identical. They were operating at the level we would expect to see from a top-four side, so they should manage that again (74.6% chance of a top-four finish).

Chelsea ultimately finished fourth, and that was the least they deserved according to expected goals, sitting third in our xG table. Only a lack of clinical finishing (69 goals scored, 78.3 xGF) and a leaky defence (54 goals conceded, 45.9 xGA) meant the Blues were left to sweat.

% chance of top-four finish in 20/21 Premier League

The acquisitions of Timo Werner, Kai Havertz and Hakim Ziyech should help, but the key area they need to improve in is in goal.

However, they look good for another top-four finish (71.2% chance of doing so) and are value even at 1/2.

Back Chelsea to finish in the top four @ 1/2

Top Six Finish

Wolves impressed again last season, finishing the campaign fifth in our xG table for the second straight season. They have shown tremendous levels of consistency since arriving back in the top flight. 

The fact they finished seventh last season and missed out on European football could be a blessing as it means that Nuno’s small squad can be well-rested week in and week out.

% chance of top-six finish in 20/21 Premier League

Wolves have also kept their key players, and their coach, suggesting the chances of them replicating their excellent levels are very high, and they should go close to securing a top-six spot.

Infogol calculates that they have a 63.4% chance of finishing in the top six, so the insulting 5/2 available about them represent tremendous value.

Arsenal and Tottenham enjoyed good results towards the back end of the season, but their underlying numbers remained poor, suggesting the short prices about them finishing in the top six are undeserved.

Tottenham 10-game rolling xG average 19/20

Tottenham under Mourinho ranked 10th in our xG table, while Arsenal under Arteta ranked 13th. Both sides have posted a negative expected goal difference since their respective managerial appointments and they need to improve drastically.

Leicester’s decline in results and performance levels last season was well documented, and it ultimately led to them missing out on the top four, meaning Thursday night European football as opposed to Tuesday/Wednesday. They should tumble down the table this term.

Back Wolves to finish in the top six @ 5/2

Relegation

Both West Brom and Fulham are fancied to make a swift return to the Championship, with Fulham our favourites for the drop after they ranked only seventh on our Championship xG table.

Aston Villa improved markedly in defence after the enforced break, which ultimately saved them last season and could do so again this term. Dean Smith’s side had allowed a league-high 2.4 xGA per game pre-break, while post-break they allowed just 1.0 xGA per game. 

% chance of Relegation from Premier League 20/21

Newcastle have real cause for concern. Many pundits praised Steve Bruce for the job he did last season but, based on the underlying numbers, they were extremely fortunate to avoid being embroiled in a relegation battle, sitting rock bottom of our xG table.

Unless anything changes, you can expect their results this season to regress to a level that their performances deserve. While they have made some decent signings, it all depends on Bruce’s approach and we calculate that Newcastle have a 36.7% chance of going down. Backing them to be relegated at a general 9/4 is the value play.

Crystal Palace also have reason to be concerned as, although they coasted to a comfortable 14th, they sat 17th in our xG table, posting the second-worst attacking numbers (1.03 xGF per game).

Newly promoted Leeds won the Championship with similar authority and dominance as Wolves did in 17/18, and we are expecting them to survive - Marcelo Bielsa’s side are given just an 18.1% chance of going down.

Back Newcastle to get relegated @ 9/4

Top Scorer

Jamie Vardy was last season’s top scorer, netting 23 times for Leicester from chances equating to 19.3 xG, pipping 22-goal Danny Ings (16.8 xG) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (16.1 xG) to the golden boot.

Looking at this season’s top goalscorer betting, Mohamed Salah and Harry Kane head the market before Aubameyang, Agüero and Chelsea’s new signing Timo Werner.

19/20 Premier League xG/avg match leaders (>800 mins)

Agüero makes the most appeal at the prices, given he plays in the Premier League’s best-attacking team and averages almost 1 xG/avg match, but he never seems to be able to stay fit for a full season.

Kane (0.44 xG/avg match) and Aubameyang (0.45) are elite finishers but play in teams that aren’t very good at creating big chances.

At a slightly bigger price, Raheem Sterling makes appeal after his 20-goal season in 19/20. He is capable of some awful misses, but he continually gets on the end of good chances (0.68 xG/avg match), and that shouldn’t change this term.

He is an ever-present in the City team which is a plus, and he looks a good each-way play at 14/1.

Back Raheem Sterling to be top scorer @ 14/1