Newcastle v Man Utd prediction & betting tips brought to you by football expert Tom Love, including a 2.5pt tip.
Newcastle vs Man Utd
Will Man Utd bounce back after their 6-1 defeat?
- The last three meetings between these two at St James’ Park have ended with scorelines of 1-0, 0-2 and 1-0.
- Newcastle have won two of their last three home games against Manchester United.
- Allan Saint-Maximin has been fouled on average, 4 times per game, more than any other player in the premier league.
TIP: Newcastle +1 Asian Handicap
It’s been a wholly underwhelming start to the season from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Manchester United. An undeserved and controversial late winner at Brighton didn’t pull the wool over anyone’s eyes and home defeats to Crystal Palace and Spurs were embarrassing. There are murmurings of unrest at Old Trafford and you have a Paul Pogba who has openly admitted his desire to leave to Real Madrid, a worryingly out of form Harry Maguire and Marcus Rashford and are without Anthony Martial here due to suspension.
Newcastle have had a decent return of 7 points from their opening four games. A deserved defeat at home to Brighton and a fortunate point at Spurs weren’t brilliant performances but they were fully deserving of wins over West Ham and Burnley. They kept the majority of their squad together and have added attacking quality with Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson and that gives Toon fans greater hope of survival and rightly so.
Steve Bruce tends to follow his predecessor Rafa Benitez when it comes to his gameplan against the big boys. It’s usually 10 men behind the ball, concede possession and try hit their opponents on the break, it will be interesting if he gives that level of respect to this United side because on this seasons’ form they don’t deserve it.
Only West Brom have worse expected goals (xG) data than United this season and that’s even more shocking when you see they’ve had a few penalties too which is worth around 0.8 xG. They sorely lacked creativity and their shambolic defensive efforts mean that quotes as short as 4/6 for them to win here are way too short. With that in mind I’m keen to get the Magpies on side and the most sensible way in is to back them with a +1 start on the asian handicap.
This selection would only see us lose money if the visitors won by two or more goals. Newcastle have enough threats to pierce the United defence and without Martial, the Red Devils look light at the top of the pitch.
TIP: Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded
I’ll also dip into the card markets as one stat stood out to me when doing my research for this match. Newcastle’s mercurial winger Allan Saint-Maximin has been on fire so far this season and was rewarded with a bumper contract for his efforts, he will be keen to get at the United backline and Aaron Wan-Bissaka will have much easier days. The former Crystal Palace right-back is a very good one-on-one defender but he can overcommit and be rash in the challenge and odds of 7/2 on him to be carded could be worth a small play.
No one has received more fouls than ASM (an average of 4 per game) and he is likely to be directly up against AWB who has picked up cards against similar wingers such as Wilfred Zaha in the past. This season Ryan Fredericks (West Ham) has already been carded and many more right-backs will fall foul this season if the former Nice man keeps up his electric form.
