Oli Nixon picked out three winners in his midweek Champions League column. Check out his best bets for the Premier League Gameweek 9 slate here.
This weekend is all about fouls as we have a plethora of regularly fouled players up against some nicely priced opponents to bring them down and with some of them fatigued from European action midweek, it should make the offences even more likely.
Jordan Henderson o0.5 fouls committed for Brentford v Liverpool – 10/11 – Bet365 – 1 unit
10/11 best price available at the time of publishing, 4/7 next best price that includes Super Sub feature.
Jordan Henderson will no doubt be looking forward to facing the side he captained to the Premier League title for the first time in 30 years in 2020 and hopefully that excitement spills over into at least one foul. That’s something that the central midfielder has managed in six of his eight appearances this season and if you include Bet365’s ‘Sub On, Play On’ offer, this bet would have landed in all of his games.
Henderson should have a busy evening up against Liverpool’s midfield regardless of who starts as across their 12 games in all competitions this season, opposition central midfielders have combined for 45 infringements with 11 separate players making at least two fouls. We only need the one offence from the Black Cats midfielder and his record coupled with the heavy foul drawing opposition make this a backable price.
Dan Burn o1.5 fouls committed for Newcastle v Fulham – 5/2 – Paddy Power – 1 unit
5/2 best price available with Paddy Power. 9/4 Sky Bet.
Since moving out to left back, Dan Burn has consistently been committing fouls with ten fouls in five games in this role, making at least two fouls in four of those. It’s safe to say that Burn’s physical attributes aren’t well suited to a position that leaves regularly exposed to one-on-one duels with paciest players on the pitch and his lack of agility and speed often mean he’s left with no choice but to bring his opponent down.
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Up against Burn will be Fulham winger Harry Wilson who is regularly felled and so far this season has drawn 1.72 fouls per 90. The Welsh international is excellent at drawing late contact and in a match-up with Burn that looks a complete mis-match, the likelihood of him being hauled to the ground only increases.
Tyrick Mitchell o0.5 fouls committed for Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 4/5 – Bet365 – 1 unit
4/5 best price with bet365 at the time of publishing. As short as 2/11 elsewhere.
Another player who we can look towards for drawing offences from his direct opponent every week is Arsenal winger Bukayo Saka who has been fouled 2.88 times per 90 this season. He’s another winger whose agile footwork and speed of turns makes him impossible to keep quiet and the fact that the last nine left backs to face Arsenal have committed 18 fouls between them further emphasises his threat.
Tyrick Mitchell has been quiet for fouls this season, only committing two in the Premier League across eight starts, however, he’s yet to face a winger as dangerous as Saka. In the last three meetings between these two players, the Eagles left back has committed a foul in two with Saka going off injured early in the other and so he’s clearly an opponent he finds difficult to handle.
Pedro Porro o1.5 fouls committed for Tottenham v Everton – 10/11 – Star Sports / PricedUp
Pedro Porro to be carded for Tottenham v Everton – 9/2 – Skybet/BetMGM – 0.5 Units
We can’t have a column focussed on fouls without considering the Premier League’s most fouled player in Jack Grealish! The Everton winger has drawn a massive 4.2 times per 90 since joining on loan from Man City and looks back to his best, terrorising full backs. When Grealish has started, the opposition right back has made at least two fouls in four of his league games and been booked in four of those too.
Pedro Porro has committed 1.49 fouls per 90 in domestic action this season and has been booked in four of his eleven starts across all competitions. He’s encouraged to get forward to support Spurs attacks whenever possible which will also lead to him being caught out on the counter and forced into some late challenges. With Grealish such a master at drawing contact, we can take any right back at evens for two fouls against him and the price for a Porro booking is just too big to refuse.
