Oli Nixon's last two Best Bets articles have provided 3.8pts of profit, check out his Premier League tips for GW10 here.
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Tip 1: Kristoffer Ajer - Over 0.5 Shots vs Palace - 1pt
Best price of 11/8 available with 10Bet when publishing. 11/10 with 365. 21/20 with 888 and William Hill.
Brentford continue to be one of the biggest set piece threats in the Premier League with only five sides taking more shots from such situations. The bulk of those chances have come via the hands of Michael Kayode whose long throw is consistently producing chances for Bees defenders. Kristoffer Ajer has been a regular beneficiary, firing off 1.43 shots per 90 including two in both of his last two starts against Liverpool and West Ham.
Palace are conceding four shots from restarts per game this season and have allowed opposition centre backs to take seven shots across their last eight games in all competitions. The Eagles will rely upon Marc Guehi and Maxence Lacroix’s aerial prowess to keep Brentford’s dead-ball barrage at bay but with them likely to be occupied by Nathan Collins and Sepp Van den Berg, it may well leave Ajer free to profit once more.
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Tip 2: Marc Guehi - 1+ Fouls Won vs Brentford - 1pt
4/5 best price available with 365. As short as 4/9 elsewhere.
At the other end of the pitch at Selhurst Park, the aforementioned Marc Guehi will be kept busy marking one of the form players in the division in Igor Thiago. The England international has made a habit of drawing fouls in recent weeks, doing so 11 times in his last eight starts, with at least one in six of those games. Guehi’s lack of height often makes him a target for physical strikers to try and dominate aerially and the clumsy approach of these types of forwards is clearly resulting in him being fouled regularly.
Key to this bet is that stationed on the left side of the Eagles back three, Guehi will have to handle not only Thiago but Dango Ouattara too. Between them, that duo have committed 4.15 fouls per 90 this season as they are instructed to press aggressively by Keith Andrews. Across Brentford’s last nine games in all competitions, opposition centre backs have been felled on 18 occasions and so with Guehi’s record, this price looks an excellent opportunity.
Burnley vs Arsenal
Tip 3: Lesley Ugochukwu - 2+ Fouls Won vs Arsenal - 0.5pts
12/5 best price available with 365. As short as 11/10 elsewhere.
Another player who has demonstrated his ability to consistently draw late contact this season is Burnley central midfielder Lesley Ugochukwu who has been brought down an average of 1.87 times per 90. As a player who likes to carry the ball, he’s often forcing opposition defensive midfielders to haul him down and has been fouled at least twice in four of his last five starts.
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In the middle of the park up against Ugochukwu will be Arsenal duo Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi who have combined for 2.62 fouls per 90 between them this season. Across the Gunners’ last seven games in all competitions, opposition central midfielders have been fouled 16 times and so it’s clearly an area of the pitch where they make infringements. Burnley will see very little of the ball and will rely upon Ugochukwu’s ball carrying to get them up the pitch on the counter, making him a strong candidate for drawing cynical fouls
West Ham vs Newcastle
Tip 4: Malick Thiaw - 1+ Shots vs West Ham - 1pt
Best price of 17/20 available with Ladbrokes/Coral. 4/5 with 10Bet and bet365.
Despite centre back shots against West Ham being the obvious angle of approach every week, bookmakers are still pricing them nicely and so we can keep attacking them. The Hammers have shipped 50 shots from dead-ball situations this season which averages out at 5.78 per game, comfortably the worst record in the Premier League. They’ve also conceded nine goals from set plays in nine games and have allowed their opposing centre backs to take sixteen shots this season with five of them finding the back of the net.
With all this in mind, we need to find a Newcastle centre back to get on side and with a record of 1.19 shots per 90 in league action this season, Malick Thiaw looks the most likely candidate to profit from West Ham’s fragility. The German has taken eight shots across his last five starts and with a career record of 12 goals, he’s clearly capable of finding the back of the net. If he is to get on the scoresheet, it looks most likely to be with a header as 78% of his shots this season have come via his head and therefore we can boost his price by backing a headed goal as opposed to his anytime price.
Tip 5: Malick Thiaw - To Score a Header vs West Ham - 0.25pts
Best price of 20/1 with bet365. 18/1 available with BetMGM/Virgin Bet. 12/1 and lower the rest.
Sunderland vs Everton
Tip 6: Trai Hume - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed vs Everton - 0.5pts
14/5 best price with Star Sports/Priced Up. As short as 1/1 elsewhere when publishing.
We finish off with another staple angle and whilst it didn’t land for us last week, we can’t turn down odds of nearly 3/1 for Jack Grealish’s direct opponent to make two or more fouls. The winger is drawing 3.89 fouls per 90, being brought down more often than any other Premier League player. The last five right backs to face him have combined for 13 fouls between them with four of those making at least two infringements and so we can almost blindly back this price without even considering the player he’s up against.
That player this week is Sunderland’s tough tackling right back Trai Hume and whilst he’s been relatively quiet in terms of fouls this season, his record of over a foul committed per game last season shows he’s capable of mistiming a few challenges. What also catches the eye is that Hume is making 2.93 tackles per 90 across Sunderland’s last 30 games and a player who likes to tackle that much is bound to get suckered in by Grealish at least a couple of times.
