Macca has produced 5.65pts of profit over his previous two bets bets columns. Check his Premier League GW10 plays here.
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
Tip 1: Bryan Mbeumo Over 2.5 Shots vs N Forest (1.5pts)
Best price of 13/10 available with Ladbrokes/Coral when publishing. As short as 8/15 elsewhere.
Mbeumo keeps delivering in the shots market, and the price still looks generous. He’s cleared 2.5 shots in 7 of his last 10 games, including back to back winners heading into this weekend.
The Brentford talisman remains their main outlet in attack and comes into this one full of confidence after netting three goals across his last two outings with a brace against Brighton and one against Liverpool.
Up next is Nottingham Forest, who are allowing 9.2% more shots than the league average, which only strengthens the case for another active performance from the Cameroon international.
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
Tip 2: Douglas Luiz Over 1.5 Fouls Won vs Man United (1.25pts)
11/8 best price available with bet365. As short as 8/11 elsewhere.
Douglas Luiz’s return to English football has seen him pick up right where he left off, drawing plenty of contact and fouls in midfield battles.
He’s averaging 2.70 fouls won per 90 minutes since joining Forest and has landed this line in five of his six appearances when factoring in Bet365’s super-sub promotion (four of six without it).
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Facing a Manchester United midfield likely to feature Bruno Fernandes, Casemiro, or Ugarte, all good contenders for committing foul, this looks a very nice above evens play for the Brazilian to be in the thick of things again.
Man City v Bournemouth
Tip 3: Eli Junior Kroupi Over 1.5 Shots vs Man City (1.25pts)
6/5 best price with bet365. As short as 1/3 elsewhere.
Kroupi has stepped up superbly in Evanilson’s absence, leading the Bournemouth line with real confidence.
He’s scored three goals in his two Premier League starts, one against Nottingham Forest and a brace versus Crystal Palace, clearing this shot line in both outings.
Even in limited minutes, he’s been lively, recording two shots in the EFL Cup against Brentford and three shots in just nine minutes off the bench against Leeds.
Manchester City aren’t quite the defensive juggernaut they once were, and with Bournemouth playing fearless football this season, Kroupi should get his chances again.
Sunderland v Everton
Tip 4: Jack Grealish Over 4.5 Fouls Won vs Sunderland (1pt)
4/1 best price with bet365.
We all know Grealish’s knack for drawing fouls, but the numbers this season underline just how good he is at it.
He’s averaging 4.02 fouls won per 90 minutes and has hit five or more in four of his last seven appearances, including an EFL Cup game where he won five despite playing only 31 minutes.
Bet365’s baseline of over 2.5 fouls at 1.72 looks far too low, and with the bookmaker still fine tuning their pricing on these markets that they've only just started offering, there’s real value in taking the higher line at 5.00 to exploit their mistakes early on.
