Macca picked out two winners from three bets in his midweek column at odds of 1/1 and 12/5. Check out his best bets for GW11 here!
Tottenham vs Man United
Tip 1: Bruno Fernandes - 2+ Fouls Won vs Tottenham - 1.5pts
11/10 best price available with Sky Bet. As short as 8/13.
There’s always a bit of a derby feel when these two meet after the Europa League final, and history shows plenty of cards when they do. Both sides get stuck in and the cards line set around 5 tells its own story about how physical this could get.
Bruno Fernandes has been fouled exactly twice per game on average across his last 20 appearances in all competitions. He’s drawn more than one foul in 80% of his last ten and in every one of his last five matches. Despite that consistency you can still get 2.10 with Paddy Power and Sky, which looks strong value compared to Bet365’s shorter 1.61.
Everton vs Fulham
Tip 2: Kenny Tete - To Be Shown a Card vs Fulham - 1pt
10/3 best price with BetMGM/Virgin Bet. As short as 21/10 elsewhere.
Tete is set for a tough afternoon against Jack Grealish, who continues to draw fouls for fun this season, averaging 3.8 per 90. Bet365 have him priced at 2.20 to win 4 or more fouls, which says plenty about how often defenders struggle to deal with him.
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Four of the last eight right backs to face Grealish have been booked, and that trend could easily continue here. Hume saw yellow last week despite rarely committing fouls, while Tete is a much more aggressive defender, averaging 1.46 fouls per 90 minutes. With some firms still offering prices above 4.0, this looks like a strong value angle to get behind.
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
Tip 3: Mats Wieffer - 4+ Tackles vs Brighton - 1pt
31/20 best price with BetVictor. As short as 3/4 elsewhere.
Wieffer has been a tackling machine this season, averaging 5.15 tackles per 90 minutes. His recent match log shows totals of 5,3,3,0,7,5,6,6,9,4,4,5 consistently putting himself in positions to break up play and win possession back.
Over 3.5 tackles has landed in 60% of his last five starts, 80% of his last ten, and 67% across his last fifteen appearances. At odds of 2.45, there’s real value here for a player who’s proven time and again he can get stuck in. I can Imagine nearer kick off the odds are going to be a fair bit lower here.
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
Tip 4: Tyler Adams - 1+ Shot vs Aston Villa - 1.5pts
11/8 best price with bet365 when publishing.
Tyler Adams has registered at least one shot in seven of his ten appearances this season, including last week’s strike against Manchester City, a goal that should give him a confidence boost heading into this one. Aston Villa have looked shaky defensively so far and are conceding slightly above the league average in total shots per game.
Importantly, their shape has been leaving space for midfielders to get efforts away. In Villa’s last three league outings, opposition central midfielders have attempted nine shots combined, a strong trend that supports Adams’ line here. At prices north of evens, this looks like a solid bit of value.
