Oli Nixon looks to continue his good form in this weekend's Premier League Best Bets column.
After three winners at 4/5, 11/8 and 14/5 last weekend, I’m looking to continue my good form (+6.86pts of profit in the last two weeks) in the last weekend of Premier League football before another international break.
Tip 1: Micky Van de Ven - 1+ Shots vs Man United - 1pt
Best price 21/20 with betway when publishing. As short as 8/15 elsewhere.
After his Lionel Messi-esque solo run and finish in midweek against Kobenhavn, how can anyone refuse odds against for Micky Van de Ven to have a solitary shot? The Dutchman has now scored two more goals than any other Spurs player this season and despite playing at centre back, he’s averaging 0.79 shots per 90 and has had at least one effort in six of his last eight starts.
Man Utd are an excellent side to target from set pieces as the Red Devils have conceded the fifth most shots from such situations at 4.2 per game. Across United’s last five games, opposition centre backs have been afforded ten attempts at goal and with Van de Ven full of confidence and in excellent form, he has to be backed for another shot.
Everton vs Fulham
Tip 2: Kenny Tete - 2+ Fouls vs Everton - 1pt
4/6 best price available with SpreadEx. As short as 3/10 elsewhere.
Trai Hume obliged for us on Monday evening by making three fouls and being carded which means that across this season, right backs against Everton have made at least two fouls on six occasions with five being booked. That is largely down to the Premier League’s most fouled player Jack Grealish who is drawing 3.66 fouls per 90 and with him set to start again, we can target Fulham right back Kenny Tete.
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Tete has recently returned from injury and has duly made three fouls in his last two starts. One of those games came against a similarly tricky winger in Anthony Gordon against whom he made two infringements and was also carded. He’s got an excellent record against Everton with two or more fouls in three of his last four, making his way into the referee’s notebook in two of those and he also landed both of these bets in each of the last two times he’s faced Grealish.
Tip 3: Kenny Tete - To Be Carded vs Everton - 0.5pts
3/1 best price and available with multiple bookmakers when publishing.
Sunderland vs Arsenal
Tip 4: Reinildo Mandava - 2+ Fouls vs Arsenal - 1pt
7/4 best price with Coral/Ladbrokes. As short as 8/13 elsewhere.
Another full back in for a tough 90 minutes is Sunderland defender Reinildo Mandava who since arriving in England has committed 1.26 fouls per 90. This bet would have cashed in each of the Mozambique international’s last three starts where he’s faced tricky wingers in the form of Iliman Ndiaye, Pedro Neto and Evan Guessand.
If that form is anything to go by, we can expect Reinildo to get stuck in once more up against Bukayo Saka who is drawing 2.43 fouls per 90 in league action this season. The last 12 left backs to face Arsenal have committed 24 fouls between them with eight of those managing at least two offences and Reinildo’s front footed approach should lead to a few more.
Man City vs Liverpool
Tip 5: Nico O'Reilly - 3+ Tackles vs Liverpool - 0.5pts
5/2 best price with Coral/Ladbrokes. As short as 23/20 elsewhere.
The biggest game of the weekend is undoubtedly at the Etihad where Man City entertain Liverpool in the battle of teams looking to chase down league leaders Arsenal. A key area which the Reds will look to exploit is the inexperience of full back Nico O’Reilly as he’ll have to defend one of their most dangerous attackers in Mo Salah. Left backs against the champions this season have been kept very busy with the last nine combining for a huge 29 tackles between them at an average of 3.2 per 90.
In O’Reilly, we have City’s most prolific tackler who is managing to dispossess opponents an average of 3.34 times per 90 across Premier League and Champions League action. He’s made at least three tackles in five of his last seven appearances including in a 29-minute cameo against Aston Villa and so we can be sure he’ll get stuck in. City’s left backs also made six tackles between them across the two head-to-heads last season and so everything is pointing towards a busy afternoon for the young O’Reilly.
