
Oli Nixon has provided us with his best bets for this weekend's Premier League action.
With two gameweeks to go until Christmas, I’m looking to add some extra funds to the kitty with four player-based angles in the Premier League this weekend.
Tip 1: Malo Gusto - 2+ Fouls Committed vs Everton - 1pt
Best odds of 11/8 with betway when publishing. As short as 4/7 elsewhere.
In an attempt to not exhaust the same angles, I left Jack Grealish’s opponent off the column last weekend and Nicolo Savona took all of 60 seconds to get booked and duly made two fouls in just 45 minutes of action and so I’m not about to make the same mistake again. Grealish has now been fouled 3.23 times per 90 this season and seen his opposing right back make two or more fouls seven times with bookings for them on six occasions.
Malo Gusto is the right back tasked with marking Grealish this weekend and whilst he’s only averaging 1.06 fouls per 90 across all competitions, four fouls and a red card against Forest show he’s more than capable. In truth, Gusto’s numbers are almost immaterial with Grealish’s fouled data being so strong but 13 cards across his 72 games at Chelsea adds further encouragement for us to take him on in this match-up.
Tip 2: Malo Gusto - To be Carded - 0.5pts
Best odds of 9/2 available with 10Bet when publishing. As short as 13/5 elsewhere.
Arsenal vs Wolverhampton
Tip 3: David Wolfe 1+ Foul Committed & BTTS/No - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 available with bet365 when publishing.
It’s not every week we get a price above 1/2 for Bukayo Saka’s opposing left back to make a single foul and so with David Wolfe available at this price, it looks a great opportunity. Saka is the fourth most fouled player in the Premier League, drawing 2.6 infringements per 90 and with left backs up against the Gunners making at least one foul in eight of their last nine games, this price stands out even more.
Wolfe has not been a prolific offender when it comes to fouls this season, however, as he has grown into Premier League life, he’s been drawing more attention from the officials. The Norwegian has committed four fouls in his last four starts and has struggled against direct wingers and he’s bound to mistime at least one challenge against an opponent as good at forcing late contact as Saka is.
Tip 4: Emmanuel Agbadou - Over 0.5 Shots vs Arsenal - 0.5pts
Best odds of 3/1 with 10Bet when publishing. As short as 11/10 elsewhere.
Emmanuel Agbadou landed this bet for us last weekend and at double the price on Saturday evening, it would be rude not to go again. The Wolves centre back has been the beneficiary of a renewed focus on set pieces since Rob Edwards’ arrival and this has seen him manage a shot in each of his last three starts. Every set piece is aimed at his six-foot-four-inch frame and with an average of 0.82 shots per 90 this season, he’s clearly capable of getting on the end of them.
Obviously there will be better matches to target Agbadou shots in than Arsenal away, however, I’m prepared to have a go at this based on the odds we’ve been offered and the fact that Wolves are likely to be limited to dead ball situations in attack. The Gunners are still missing first choice central defence duo Gabriel and William Saliba and with the likes of Jurrien Timber and Christian Norgaard deputising in their place in recent weeks, they understandably look a bit more vulnerable. Mikel Arteta’s men have conceded four shots to opposition centre backs in their last five games and with Abgabdou’s aerial prowess, he can add another to that tally.
Brentford vs Leeds
Tip 5: Jaka Bijol - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Brentford - 1.25pts
Best odds of 3/4 with Unibet when publishing. As short as 8/13 elsewhere.
Leeds centre back Jaka Bijol has found his way into the starting lineup in recent weeks and has wasted no time getting stuck in, averaging 1.95 tackles per 90. The Slovenian has dispossessed the opposition at least twice in four of his six appearances for the Yorkshire side and in each of his last three starts. His record of 1.31 tackles per game in Serie A last season also suggests he’s capable of maintaining this combative start to life at Elland Road.
Up against Brentford’s frontline who have drawn 4.23 tackles per 90 this season between them, Bijol should have plenty of opportunities to make two tackles. Across the Bees’ last nine games, opposition central defenders have made 29 tackles between them with ten of those making at least two and so this looks a good spot for Bijol to continue his tackling trend.













