Macca's Betting Tips & Best Bets for Weekend's Football Action

Liverpool v Brighton

Milos Kerkez to Commit a Foul

Best bet of 4/5 available at Betway while publishing.

Kerkez should be kept busy defensively here as he lines up against Minteh, one of Brighton’s most direct and aggressive wide players. Minteh consistently forces full backs into challenges, which is reflected in the numbers: opposition left backs against Brighton are averaging 1.2 fouls per game, with several hitting two or more.

Kerkez comes into this in a strong, foul-committing form. He has made 5 fouls across his last 3 matches and is averaging 1.07 fouls per 90 minutes this season. Minteh himself has been fouled in five consecutive games, highlighting how often he draws contact in wide areas.

With Kerkez likely spending long periods isolated against a high tempo dribbler, and Liverpool struggling recently, I’m surprised we’re getting this for just 1 foul.

Georginio Rutter Over 1.5 Tackles

Best odds of 5/4 available at bet365 while publishing.

Rutter’s raw average of 1.55 tackles per game slightly undersells his true output due to his minutes often being managed. When he plays extended minutes, his tackle numbers rise sharply. Last time out, he completed the full 90 minutes, made 2+ tackles, and landed this bet comfortably.

The key angle here is Bet365’s Super Sub rule. When you factor in tackles from the replacement player if Rutter is substituted, his effective tackle average increases to 2.2 per game across his last 20 appearances. On that basis, this line has landed in 14 of those 20 matches.

He’s also shown he can hit this number against elite opposition, registering 3 tackles against Manchester City. At odds of 2.25, this looks like a clear case of the market lagging behind his true tackle involvement when minutes and Super Sub are properly accounted for.

Portsmouth v Blackburn

Sean McLoughlin Over 0.5 Shots

Best odds of 23/20 available at Ladbrokes while publishing.

McLoughlin is consistently getting into shooting positions, and the numbers back it up. He’s had 15 shots across his last 13 games, landing this line in 10 of them. Based on that data alone, prices closer to 1.50 are fully justified, which is exactly where most of the market sits.

That makes 2.15 stand out as clear mispricing. Ladbrokes and Coral are well adrift of the rest here.

The matchup only strengthens the case. Portsmouth are allowing more shots than the league average, and come into this in poor form, with just one win in their last ten matches and seven defeats. Constant tactical changes and a lack of defensive cohesion have left them vulnerable, particularly in set-piece situations where McLoughlin is most likely to get his chance. This price looks far too big for a single shot.

West Ham v Aston Villa

Youri Tielemans Over 1.5 Shots

Best odds of 22/25 available at Bet365 while publishing.

Tielemans has been heavily involved in Villa’s attacking play and his recent numbers reflect that. He’s recorded 2 or more shots in all of his last six starts and is averaging exactly 2.0 shots per 90 minutes this season.

He’s expected to return to the starting XI here after being rested in midweek Europa League action. Brought on in the second half, Tielemans immediately made an impact by scoring underlining his importance to this Villa side. When deployed higher up the pitch as a central attacking midfielder, his shot output increases noticeably.

The matchup is also ideal. West Ham have struggled defensively all season, allowing 31% more shots than the league average. Central attacking midfielders in particular have enjoyed success against them, with CAMs registering shot counts of 6, 1, 4, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3 in recent fixtures.

With Villa likely to control large spells and Tielemans operating in advanced areas again, this line looks well in reach.

Bonus Bet

Tielemans to Have a Shot on Target from Outside the Box @ 4.0 (Bet365)

Tielemans regularly looks to shoot from range, and this market has landed in 4 of his last 7 appearances. At 4.0, it offers some nice value for those looking for a bigger price.