Sunderland vs Newcastle

Leg 1 - Both Teams To Score (Yes)

Sunderland’s home games have been wide open this season. They’re averaging 2 goals per game at the Stadium of Light, scoring three against Bournemouth and two against Arsenal in their last two at home, but they also conceded twice in both of those matches. Newcastle should have no trouble getting on the scoresheet themselves. The Magpies have scored in all of their last four away games, including a four goal showing at Everton last time out. Defensively though, they remain vulnerable conceding nine goals across those same fixtures, with BTTS landing in every one.

Leg 2: Granit Xhaka to be Carded

The last meeting between these sides produced six cards in the FA Cup and the market is clearly expecting a similar type of game again, with every bookmaker pricing the total card line at over/under 5.5. Rather than getting involved in the totals, there looks to be more value in targeting a specific matchup.

Newcastle’s midfield has been a clear hotspot for drawing fouls this season, averaging 4.81 fouls won per 90 minutes. Xhaka is likely to operate at the heart of Sunderland’s midfield and will be tasked with breaking up play in a derby environment. He’s an emotional player who plays with his heart on his sleeve and already has four bookings to his name this season.

Leg 3: Bruno Guimarães to Have a Shot

Bruno Guimarães is averaging 1.79 shots per 90 this season and has registered at least one shot in seven of his last eight appearances. He was particularly active against Burnley, firing off five shots with three on target and getting himself on the scoresheet. I often like backing player shots after they’ve scored, as confidence and attacking intent tends to carry over into the following game. The matchup also helps, with Sunderland allowing 26.8% more shots than the league average and conceding an average of 15.3 shots per game. That should give Bruno more than enough opportunity to get an effort away.