West Ham vs Sunderland

Reinildo Mandava o1.5 fouls committed vs West Ham

1.5pts

Now that he’s back from AFCON duty, Reinildo Mandava is straight back into the Sunderland line-up and with an average of 1.54 fouls committed per 90 since arriving in England, this price looks a great opportunity to get his offences on side. The left back has landed two or more infringements in six of his last nine league starts and whilst he only made one in the reverse fixture, he has a great match-up here to force him into multiple fouls.

Reinildo’s opponent should be Jarrod Bowen who has drawn 1.45 fouls per 90 this season and as West Ham’s talisman, he should see plenty of the ball in one-on-one duels with our man. Not only that, Reinildo will also have to cope with the over-lapping runs of Kyle Walker-Peters who has been felled 1.7 times per 90 and so everywhere he looks there will be opposition who will need no encouragement to go down.

Burnley vs Tottenham

O23.5 total shots in Burnley v Tottenham

1pt

With Burnley eight points adrift of safety, something has to change in their approach to games and it looks as if Scott Parker has chosen to attack their home games in an attempt to put up a fight for survival. The Clarets have averaged 13.5 shots per game in their last six matches at Turf Moor and this more open approach has led to total shot counts of 28, 37, 35 and 31 in their last four games as hosts.

Thomas Frank appears to be in the last chance saloon with Spurs fans and there’s no way that his timid tactical approach will cut it away at Burnley if he wants to save his job. Tottenham’s games on their travels have averaged just 22.18 shots this season, however, their most recent trip to Bournemouth hinted at a more attacking set-up and led to 27 efforts in total, 16 of which came from the visitors. The opening day meeting between these sides saw 30 attempts at goal and with both managers under pressure to produce a result, this could be similarly end-to-end.

Man City vs Wolves

Yerson Mosquera o0.5 shots for v Man City

0.5pts

Admittedly, backing a centre back from the side propping up the division away at Man City could be considered a bold approach. However, Yerson Mosquera’s forays into the attacking third in recent weeks cannot be ignored and with him taking five shots in his last four league starts, I’m happy to get behind hm at the price. Since Rob Edwards’ arrival at Molineux, we’ve seen their central defenders combine for 13 shots and two goals in ten league games and so I expect him to prioritise this as a means of attack at the Etihad.

Targeting set plays against Man City might not be the worst approach as Pep Guardiola’s men have been significantly weakened by injuries to central defensive pair Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol and replacements Max Alleyne and Abdukodir Khusanov are far from dominant aerially. City have conceded shots to centre backs in four of their last five matches and I fancy Mosquera to continue that trend.

Arsenal vs Man Utd

Kobbie Mainoo o0.5 shots v Arsenal

1pt

It took Kobbie Mainoo just one start under Michael Carrick in last week’s Manchester derby to prove Ruben Amorim’s criticism of his performances wrong as he put on a stellar display to help the Red Devils hammer their bitter rivals. He looked like a man on a mission and took an early effort from a long way out to show his intentions. The youngster has barely featured this season but is still averaging over a shot per 90 and looks motivated for a late charge to impress Thomas Tuchel with the World Cup on the horizon.

The atmosphere at the Emirates is slightly less buoyant, despite their seven-point lead at the top of the Premier League table. Consecutive drab 0-0 draws with little attacking intent from the Gunners have upped the nervousness amongst fans and whilst they’re only conceding 5.73 shots per home game, the manner in which Liverpool dominated the second half in their last league game as hosts will be a concern. By contrast, United and Mainoo played with a renewed energy in Carrick’s first game and will be looking to shock the Champions-elect.