How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Sunday's Results:

Dominik Szoboszlai Over 1.5 Shots vs Man United - 1pt - WON (23/20)
Marcus Thuram - Anytime Goalscorer vs Parma - 1pt - WON (11/10)
Matti Peltola - Over 0.5 Shots vs New York City - 1pt - WON (9/5)
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli - To Score/Assist vs Real Oviedo - 1pt - WON (23/20)
Matias Fernandez - Anytime Goalscorer vs Le Havre - 1pt - LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +25.32pts

Nico O'Reilly - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Everton (1pt)

Best odds of 59/50 with BetMGM.

Nico O’Reilly looks a solid Over 0.5 Shots on Target play after landing this in seven of his nine appearances for City.

City should dominate territory against Everton, giving O’Reilly licence to advance from the left and arrive in shooting positions.

With Pep Guardiola’s side expected to play on the front foot, one shot on target looks a very realistic line for a player regularly involved in their final-third play.

Donyell Malen - Anytime Goalscorer vs Fiorentina (1pt)

Best odds of 23/20 with BetVictor.

Donyell Malen appeals in the Anytime Goalscorer market after scoring in two of his last three matches, keeping his sharp Roma form rolling.

He is expected to operate centrally, supported by creative players around him, which should keep him close to Roma’s highest-value chances.

Against a Fiorentina side that have been vulnerable for much of the campaign, Malen’s current scoring touch makes him a clear anytime scorer candidate.

4.5
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James Garner - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Manchester City (0.75pts)

Best odds of 5/2 with Coral/Ladbrokes.

James Garner is a viable Over 1.5 Fouls angle after landing the bet in two successive Everton appearances.

The matchup suits that trend, with Manchester City likely to dominate possession and force Everton into long spells without the ball.

Garner should be stationed in the heart of midfield, where City’s central creators look to operate, giving him enough defensive pressure points to clear this line.

Bernardo Silva - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Everton (1pt)

Best odds of 11/10 with bet365.

Bernardo Silva looks a strong Over 1.5 Tackles selection after landing the line in three consecutive appearances.

Even if City dominate possession, Everton’s direct counter-attacking approach should give Bernardo opportunities to press, recover and break up play in midfield.

Given his recent tackle output and likely central role, 2+ tackles looks a very achievable line.

Mario Hermoso - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Fiorentina (1pt)

Best odds of 23/20 with Coral/Ladbrokes when publishing.

Mario Hermoso looks a solid Over 1.5 Tackles pick after clearing this line in five of his last seven Roma appearances.

Fiorentina should carry enough attacking threat to keep Roma’s back line active, particularly in wide and half-space duels.

With Hermoso likely operating on the left side of defence, he should have enough defensive actions to make 2+ tackles achievable.