EV Eagle picks four best betting angles for Sunday's Premier League matches.
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TIP 1: Nico OReilly - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 15/13 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
O'Reilly heads into the new season as one of the most important names at the Etihad after a breakout campaign that saw him named Manchester City's Etihad Player of the Season and the Premier League's Young Player of the Year. Across 53 appearances in all competitions last term, he produced six goals and eight assists, with his purple patch from Gameweek 26 onwards seeing him rack up four goals, 20 shots inside the box, 11 attempts on target and seven big chances across his final ten matches of the season.
That form has carried into the new campaign, too, with O'Reilly clearing this particular leg in three of his last four Premier League appearances. His attacking involvement makes him particularly appealing given his FPL classification as a defender, while his advanced role continues to give him plenty of opportunities to contribute at both ends of the pitch.
TIP 2: Emiliano Buendia - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt
Best odds of 23/20 at Virgin Bet while publishing.
Buendia arrives at the Amex on the back of a superb summer. He was named Man of the Match in Aston Villa's Europa League final win over SC Freiburg, and pre-season form has followed the same pattern, with two goals and three assists in the warm-up matches.
His underlying shot data supports the leg too. Buendia averaged just over a shot on target every three appearances in the Premier League last season, and his set-piece ability, evidenced by his free-kick against Bournemouth in pre-season, gives him an additional route to hitting the target beyond open play.
Buendia Shots on Target Count in last 5 competitive club games: 0,1,2,0,2
Against a Brighton side who have shown defensive fragility in recent seasons, and with Buendia expected to play a central attacking role behind Tammy Abraham, this looks a reasonable price for a player in decent form heading into the campaign.
TIP 3: Dominik Szoboszlai - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 at bet365 while publishing.
Szoboszlai heads into Andoni Iraola's first game in charge as one of Liverpool's senior leaders, having been named as one of three vice-captains to Virgil van Dijk following his new long-term contract. Last season he made 29 tackles across his Premier League appearances, and his reputation as a relentless, box-to-box presence who covers ground in both directions is exactly what Iraola will be looking to build his midfield around.
With Liverpool having lost some of their defensive steel following the summer's departures, Szoboszlai is set to play a more central role than the makeshift right-back duties he was often asked to fill last season, meaning more time spent in the areas of the pitch where tackles occur. Newcastle's directness and physicality at St James' Park should also ensure plenty of defensive actions are required from Liverpool's midfield in a game likely to be played at a high tempo from the first whistle.
His recent numbers offer further encouragement, too. Szoboszlai has recorded 3, 1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1 and 0 tackles across his last 10 Premier League appearances, clearing the relevant line in six of those 10 matches, including a five-tackle haul in one of his most recent outings. With his role expected to be more central and Newcastle likely to provide plenty of defensive work, he looks well placed to add to that tally.
TIP 4: Liverpool Win - 1pt
Best available odds of 10/11 at BresBet while publishing.
Liverpool travel to Newcastle for Iraola's competitive bow at the helm, and despite the upheaval of a summer that saw Mohamed Salah depart, the additions of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak give Liverpool's attack real quality to call upon. Iraola's intense, high-press style, which Szoboszlai has already praised as bringing back the intensity Liverpool have been missing, should suit a Newcastle side who can be exposed in transition when pressed high.
Newcastle have their own concerns heading into the new campaign, and while St James' Park is rarely an easy place to visit, Liverpool's squad depth and the quality of their front line give them the edge in what should be a competitive season opener. At odds of 10/11, backing the away win offers reasonable value given the disruption both sides are still working through this early in the campaign.
