The EV Eagle picks out five value bets from Saturday's football action across Europe.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results:
Ethan Galbraith – Over 0.5 Fouls vs Wrexham – 1.25pt - WON @ 8/11
Julian Brandt – Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Gladbach – 1pt - WON @ 31/20
Lucas Beltrán – Over 1.5 Shots vs Mallorca – 1pt - WON @ 20/23
Samu Costa Over 2.5 Fouls Won vs Valencia - 0.75 pts - LOST
Leeds vs Crystal Palace
Tip 1: Maxence Lacroix – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5pt
Best odds of 5/6 at bet365.
Maxence Lacroix averages strong tackling numbers, with 4, 4, 1, 2, and 3 tackles across his last five matches, consistently hitting over 1.5 in four of them. This defensive output supports the 63.37% AI probability for over 1.5 tackles, especially against attacking threats that demand his involvement.
Everton vs Arsenal
Tip 2: Declan Rice – Over 0.5 Fouls - 0.5pt
Best odds of 8/11 at Coral.
Declan Rice maintains 0.8 fouls per game overall, recording 1, 0, 0, 1, and 2 fouls in his last five outings. Facing Everton's intense home style, Rice's midfield role will likely see heightened physicality, boosting the 68.47% AI chance for over 0.5 fouls.
Tottenham vs Liverpool
Tip 3: Curtis Jones – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds available around evens.
Curtis Jones has committed just 3 fouls over five recent games, but has shone since his first-team return. Tottenham's aggressive pressing creates ideal conditions for fouls, aligning with the 63.3% AI probability despite modest recent stats.
Midnite
Juventus vs Roma
Tip 4: Andrea Cambiaso – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 at 10Bet.
Andrea Cambiaso tallied only 6 tackles total in his last five matches, but against Roma's disciplined setup, the 58.83% AI projection favors over 1.5 tackles given his full-back duties and favorable 11/10 odds.
Leipzig vs Leverkusen
Tip 5: Alex Grimaldo – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt
Best odds of 11/10 at bet365.
Alex Grimaldo rarely fouls in the Bundesliga, yet faces Baumgartner, who draws 1.1 fouls per game this season and 7 in his last five. This matchup drives the high 66.33% AI probability for over 0.5 fouls, yielding 39.29% EV.
