Macca picks out three strong value bets from Saturday's intense Premier League action.
Wolves v Chelsea
Tip 1: Mosquera over 0.5 shots - 1pt
Best odds of 6/4 at Sporting Index while publishing.
Mosquera looks well priced to record a shot here based on both recent trend and season long data. He’s covered this line in 5 of his last 6 games, registering 11 shots across that spell, which is a clear increase in his attacking involvement.
The standout performance in that run came against Manchester City, where he attempted 5 shots against one of the strongest defensive sides in the league. That should put to rest any concerns about this fixture being too tough on paper.
Chelsea have conceded at least one shot to an opposition centre-back in 8 of their last 10 matches, suggesting space and set piece opportunities continue to appear.
Zooming out to the full season Mosquera is averaging 1.01 shots per 90 so the underlying numbers comfortably support the line. Other bookmakers have this priced up at 1.33, obviously too short but just to highlight the market is struggling to agree on a price here.
Fulham v Everton
Tip 2: Bet Builder: James Tarkowski to win a foul + Raúl Jiménez to commit a foul - 1pt
Best odds of 0.54/1 at Skybet while publishing.
Fulham sit in the top half of the league for fouls committed, which immediately makes me look into the Everton player’s fouls won numbers and I’ve seen something very interesting.
Tarkowski has been extremely reliable for winning fouls recently. He’s landed this leg in 9 of his last 10 matches and is averaging 1.03 fouls won across his last 20 games. The recent trend is even stronger, with 18 fouls won in his last 8 appearances which is huge for a centre back.
The matchup makes it even more appealing. Tarkowski is likely to be directly involved in physical aerial and hold up battles with Raúl Jiménez, who commits a high number of fouls himself, averaging 1.5 fouls per game.
The numbers look good here for both players to win their legs considering we’re only going after the 0.5 lines but there’s a chance here that Jiménez fouls Tarkowski and we win both instantly.
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Tip 3: James Garner over 2.5 tackles - 1pt
Best odds of 3/4 at BetVictor while publishing.
James Garner over 4.5 tackles - 0.5u
Best odds of 17/4 at BetVictor while publishing.
Garner is posting excellent numbers for tackle markets. He’s averaging 3.15 tackles per game this season, but his recent output has stepped up significantly, with 42 tackles across his last 8 matches.
During that spell, he’s recorded 7 tackles against West Ham, 7 versus Brentford, 6 against Sunderland, 7 against Aston Villa and 6 against Brighton, failing to clear the 2.5 line just once. That makes the bigger line very interesting at the prices available.
We will possibly get good matchups too as Garner is likely to spend large spells up against Rowe and Chukwueze, who are dispossessed 1.9 and 1.7 times per game respectively. With Everton expected to defend for long periods, Garner will get chances to make tackles.
