Oli Nixon picks out four betting angles from the Premier League Game Week 24.
Wolves v Bournemouth
Tip 1: Yerson Mosquera o0.5 shots – 1.5 units
Best odds of evens at bet365 while publishing.
After he landed us a lovely winner last weekend with a massive five shots away at Man City, it would be rude not to back Yerson Mosquera for a shot again at a generous price. The Wolves central defender has been all action since Rob Edwards’ arrival and is averaging 1.14 shots per 90 for his new boss with 10 efforts across his last five league starts. He’s a big aerial threat from set pieces but also likes to bomb forward in open play where 43% of his shots have come from.
Key to this selection is that Bournemouth have the worst record of any Premier League team when it comes to defending dead ball situations, shipping goals from them. That weakness was exposed by Virgil van Dijk’s goal last time out and given that they’ve conceded 11 shots to opposition centre backs in their last four games, backing Mosquera looks even more attractive.
Aston Villa v Brentford
Tip 2: Pau Torres o1.5 tackles – 1 unit
Best odds of 13/8 at William Hill while publishing.
Pau Torres has been getting stuck in consistently this season, averaging 1.44 tackles per 90 and making 10 dispossessions across his last six league starts. The Spaniard landed this bet in the reverse fixture and also did so in his last home appearances against Everton. Centre back partner Ezri Konsa is often tasked with dealing with aerial duels, leaving Torres to mop up the second balls and commit plenty of tackles.
Throughout this season, tackles from central defenders against the Bees have consistently been strong. Opposition centre backs have made 34 dispossessions across the visitors last 12 games in all competitions with eight different players making at least two. The ball carrying ability of Kevin Schade, Igor Thiago and Mikkel Damsgaard presents a difficult challenge for opposing defenders and Torres has shown himself more than capable of winning the ball from them.
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Man City v Tottenham
Tip 3: Bernardo Silva o1.5 tackles for – 1 unit
Best odds of Evens at William Hill while publishing.
Another player who is not afraid to get stuck in is Man City veteran Bernardo Silva. The Spaniard has been deployed in a deeper central role this season which has seen him averaging 1.29 tackles per 90 as his terrier like pressing regularly wins the ball back for Pep Guardiola’s side. Silva has an excellent record in this fixture, landing this bet in five of his last six starts against Spurs and so something about the match-up clearly motivates him.
The real angle for this pick is that central midfielders put up some crazy tackle numbers against Thomas Frank’s side. Across Spurs’ last eight matches in all competitions, opposition players in the middle of the park have combined for a massive 49 tackles and with it evidently an area of the pitch where they force plenty, Silva has every chance of maintaining his tackling trend against them.
Sunderland v Burnley
Tip 4: Dan Ballard o1.5 tackles – 1 unit
Best odds of 5/4 at bet365 while publishing.
We finish with another approach which has proved profitable this season and that is tackles from central defenders against Burnley. In the Clarets last ten matches, opposition central defenders have been forced into making 42 tackles with all three of Tottenham’s back three landing this bet last time out. This is largely down to the threat of Armando Broja and Marcus Edwards who are dispossessed 4.4 times per 90 this season and both are expected to start on Monday evening.
With an average of 1.49 tackles per 90 this season, Dan Ballard looks the most likely Black Cats defender to engage Burnley’s attackers. He’s made 14 tackles across his last seven league starts, cashing this bet in four of those and with Burnley desperate for points, they should be set-up to attack which only increases the likelihood of the Northern Ireland international being called into action.
