Oli Nixon reveals his standout bets for this weekend's Premier League action.
One final outing for this column before the festivities, and with plenty of rotation expected amongst Premier League squads with fixture pileups, suspensions and players away at AFCON, there’s some good value to be had in the player prop markets.
Tip 1: Matt Doherty to be fouled o0.5 times for Wolves v Brentford - 1pt
Best odds of 6/4 at Bet365 during publishing.
Wolves are one of the sides most affected by a loss of personnel this weekend, and as a result, Matt Doherty should be deputising at right wing-back as he did last time out. The Irishman has struggled for minutes this season, but has drawn 1.1 fouls per 90 across all competitions, including being felled twice against Arsenal last Saturday. This bet has cashed in three of his five league starts, and given the opposition he’ll be up against, the price on offer is very appealing.
Brentford’s physical frontline has been well documented in this column as Igor Thiago and Kevin Schade have committed 3.66 fouls per 90 between them, making them the Bees' two most prolific offenders. Across the West London club’s last 12 games, opposition right-backs have been brought down 14 times, with ten of those landing this bet, and so we can look forward to a combative clash between Doherty and Schade.
Tip 2: Nathan Collins o0.5 shots for Brentford v Wolves – 1 unit
Best odds of 5/4 at Betway while publishing.
Tip 3: Sepp van den Berg o0.5 shots for Brentford v Wolves – 1 unit
Best odds of 23/20 at Ladbrokes/Coral while publishing.
Having touched upon Rob Edwards’ selection headache in defence, it’s worth highlighting that perhaps his biggest issues lie at centre back where he is missing Emmanuel Agbadou to international duty and Yerson Mosquera to suspension. That means that Wanderers only have Toti Gomes and Santiago Bueno as fit centre backs and they’ll therefore be vulnerable from set pieces. As it is, even with their first-choice central pair, only two Premier League sides have given up more shots than Wolves from set pieces and so what was already a fragility now looks a glaring weakness in their absence.
In Brentford, the home side could scarcely have a tougher assignment when it comes to dead ball situations with many teams struggling with the Bees set play barrage this season. Keith Andrews’ side have taken the fifth most shots from such situations in the division and will be licking their lips at this weakened Wolves rearguard.
Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg have been key to the visitors aerial threat all season, averaging 0.59 and 0.63 shots per 90 respectively and with nine shots between them across Brentford’s last six league games, we can trust they’ll be throwing themselves at every long throw and corner.
Tip 4: Gabriel Gudmundsson to be fouled o1.5 times for Leeds v Crystal Palace – 1 unit
Best odds of 1/3 at Skybet during publishing.
Leeds left back Gabriel Gudmundsson has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water and has been a key part in their strong start to the season. The Swedish international has been particularly notable for the number of fouls he’s drawn, averaging 1.81 per 90 with at least two in each of his last four starts. Gudmundsson has been especially consistent at forcing late contact at Elland Road, where he’s landed this bet in six consecutive starts, and so he clearly enjoys playing in front of his own fans.
With Ismaila Sarr on duty for Senegal, Eddie Nketiah is the most likely opponent for Gudmundsson, and it’s safe to describe him as clumsy when it comes to defensive work. The forward looks desperate to impress every time he takes to the pitch for the Eagles and has
committed 2.05 fouls per 90 this season to follow up his average of 2.72 during the last campaign. With Gudmundsson so adept at inducing late challenges and Nketiah finding it so difficult to control his enthusiasm, this looks like a recipe for plenty of fouls down Palace’s right side.
Midnite
Tip 5: John McGinn o1.5 fouls committed for Aston Villa v Man Utd – 1 unit
Best odds of 1/4 at Sporting Index/SpreadEx
Our final AFCON enforced selection change comes at Man Utd, where the absence of Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui makes it likely that Patrick Dorgu will get a return to Ruben Amorim’s starting lineup. The Italian wing-back is one of the best players in Europe for winning free kicks, and with an average of 2.79 fouls drawn per 90 since arriving at Old Trafford, targeting his direct opponent for fouls feels a sensible angle of attack.
John McGinn seems the most likely Aston Villa midfielder to start on the right, as he has done in recent weeks, where Unai Emery’s side have been in such good form. The Scot is no stranger to a strong tackle, and this season is averaging 2.17 fouls per 90 in league action, with two or more fouls in four of his last six starts. McGinn also has an excellent record in head-to-heads between Villa and United, committing ten infringements across the last four meetings, and if he opposes Dorgu here, he’ll do well to avoid another couple.
