Bologna v Lazio – Sunday 19:45, BT Sport 2

Bologna ended a run of four straight defeats after drawing 1-1 at Genoa, but are now six points worse off than they were at this stage last year. In contrast, Lazio are 13 points better off as they continue their pursuit for European qualification following a 1-0 victory at home to Udinese, their third success in four unbeaten matches.

So far, five of the top eight have travelled to Bologna and all five have left with three points. Four of these defeats were to nil as the only goal they managed to score across the five games was in a 7-1 mauling from Napoli. They’ve conceded more than once on just a single other occasion at home this season (against fourth-placed Atalanta) but we fear for them here as Vasilis Torosidis is suspended meaning three of their regular back-four are unavailable. Most important of those is captain Daniele Gastaldello: they’ve lost 15 of the 23 games he’s missed since that start of last season, conceding 70% more often when he’s absent.

Lazio have lost at the San Siro twice and at Juventus but have remained unbeaten at all other venues. They generally taken the points when travelling to the divisions weaker sides, going W5-D1-L0 against sides between 10th-20th in the table, netting 15 times across these games. They’re in good form and in addition to Bologna’s defensive crisis we’ll back Lazio to cover the -1 handicap.

Lazio -1 Handicap - 1pt @ 23/10