Italy v Sweden – Monday 19:45, Sky Sports

Italy are in danger of missing out on a first World Cup since 1958 following a 1-0 defeat in the first leg of this tie, but they can take encouragement from a recent home record that has seen them win five of six unbeaten games, whilst they’ve only conceded once in their last seven on home turf. They’ll be wary of a potentially damaging away goal here, and given Sweden have kept three clean sheets in their last four, we’re not exactly expecting a flurry of goals in this one.

Indeed, since 2010, second leg UEFA qualifiers for the World Cup or Euros have largely seen few goals, with under 2.5 goals landing in 11 of 16 and six seeing one goal or less. Italy have led 1-0 at half-time in four of their last six at home, and we can see them doing something similar here and then trying to stifle their opponents. That should provide some value in the half-time/full-time market given Janne Andersson’s side have trailed at the break in three of their last five on their travels. Furthermore, Sweden have failed to score during the opening-45 in all their 11 road trips since 2006 to teams we have ranked in the world’s top 10, trailing at both half-time and full-time in eight of these games.

Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 8/13
Italy/Italy Half-Time/Full-Time - 1pt @ 11/8

In fact, four of the seven most recent of these trips to top-10 sides saw Sweden lose without finding the net, with three of these games finishing 1-0. Three of Italy’s last four have finished 1-0 one way or the other, and in a game where we expect to see few chances we’re backing the hosts to take it to extra-time with a 1-0 correct score.

Italy 1-0 - 1pt @ 41/10