With the World Cup kicking off tomorrow we’ve taken a look at how the odds set by bookmakers correlate with the FIFA World rankings.
A team’s total number of points over a four-year period to calculate their world ranking are determined by adding the average number of points gained from matches in the past 12 months to the average number of points gained from matches older than 12 months (depreciates yearly).
The calculation of points from a single match depends on whether the match is won or drawn, the importance of the match and the strength of opposition.
That explains one outlier in the table, Russia, because as hosts they were exempt from qualifying into the tournament.
Salamovich Cherchesov’s men have only played three competitive matches, in the Confederations Cup, since Euro 2016 and are the lowest ranked team at 70th. They are, however, twelfth in the market at 66/1 and have a good chance of making out of Group A.
Further up the market, Spain are seen as one of the favourites to win the World Cup despite only being ranked 10th while England and Denmark are 20/1 and 125/1 respectively, despite being joint 12th in the rankings.
Portugal, after winning Euro 2016, are ranked fourth in the world but are seen as quite some way behind the front runners with odds of 27/1. It’s a similar story for Poland and Switzerland in that despite being ranked eighth and sixth respectively they are 80/1 and 150/1 to upset the apple cart by going all the way.
