How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Friday's World Cup Tips:

Tajon Buchanan - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 0.75pts @ 11/8 - LOST
Christian Pulisic - To Score/Assist - 1pt @ 13/10 - WON
Folarin Balogun - Anytime Goalscorer - 0.75pts @ 9/4 - WON

2025/26 Season P+L: +21pts. Meaning if you backed every EV Eagle tip at best odds with a £10 stake, you'd be £210 in profit.

Brazil vs Morocco

Tip 1: Lucas Paqueta - To Be Shown A Card - 1pt

Best odds of 3/1 at Skybet while publishing.

AI Probability 31% | Implied Probability 25% | EV 24%

Lucas Paquetá has been booked in three of his last seven appearances and looks a strong candidate in the cards market. The Brazilian midfielder has accumulated 12 yellow cards in 61 international appearances, highlighting his willingness to get involved physically when required. Morocco are expected to make this a fiercely contested encounter and their aggressive pressing style could frustrate Paquetá, who has occasionally been prone to needless fouls when emotions get the better of him. In what should be a competitive midfield battle, a booking is certainly within reach.

Lucas Paqueta
Brazil v Morocco [To Be Shown A Card]
33/10

Tip 2: Matheus Cunha - To Score Or Assist - 1pt

Best odds of 6/4 at Virgin Bet while publishing.

AI Probability 47% | Implied Probability 40% | EV 18%

Matheus Cunha has registered a goal contribution in two of his last three matches and enters the tournament looking to cement his place in Brazil's attack. While his senior international record currently stands at just one goal and two assists, his underlying talent is unquestionable, and he previously recorded four goal contributions in five Olympic appearances for Brazil. Surrounded by elite attacking talent in Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha, Cunha should find himself involved in plenty of dangerous situations and will be eager to make an early statement on football's biggest stage.

Santos Matheus Cunha
Brazil v Morocco [To Score Or Assist]
8/5

Qatar vs Switzerland

Tip 3: Dan Ndoye - To Score Or Assist - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

AI Probability 54% | Implied Probability 47% | EV 15%

Dan Ndoye has enjoyed an excellent run of form at international level, contributing three goals in his last four International Friendlies. He also had an impressive outing in the World Cup Qualification, scoring twice and adding three assists in five matches. While his club campaign with Nottingham Forest yielded just two league goals, he has often looked a different player in Swiss colours. Against a Qatar side that may struggle to contain Switzerland's attacking quality, Ndoye has every chance of adding another goal contribution to his growing tally.

Dan Ndoye
Qatar v Switzerland [To Score Or Assist]
10/11

Australia vs Turkey

Tip 4: Arda Guler - To Score Or Assist - 1pt

Best odds of 6/5 at Paddy Power while publishing.

AI Probability 50% | Implied Probability 45% | EV 10%

Arda Güler has registered a goal or assist in four of his last eight appearances for Turkey and arrives at the World Cup as one of the country's most important players. The 21-year-old enjoyed a breakthrough campaign with Real Madrid, contributing six goals and 14 assists across all competitions and offering regular reminders of why he is regarded as one of Europe's brightest young talents.

Blessed with exceptional vision, close control and creativity in the final third, Güler is Turkey's primary playmaker and the player most likely to unlock stubborn defences. With the freedom to influence attacks and set pieces, he looks well placed to make his mark on the biggest stage and could be one of the breakout stars of the tournament.

Arda Guler
Australia v Turkey [To Score Or Assist]
6/5

Tip 5: Bet Builder Treble - 0.5pt

  • Matheus Cunha - To Score Or Assist
  • Dan Ndoye - To Score Or Assist
  • Arda Guler - To Score Or Assist

Best odds of 10/1 at Paddy Power while publishing.