Norway vs Senegal Betting Tips: Best Bets, Odds & Bet Builder Tip

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Norway and Senegal meet at New York/New Jersey Stadium tonight in a key Group I fixture. Ståle Solbakken’s side made an explosive start to their campaign with a 4-1 win over Iraq, powered by an Erling Haaland brace, and they enter this match top of the group ahead of France on goal difference.

Senegal, meanwhile, are already under pressure after beginning their tournament with a 3-1 defeat to France. Pape Thiaw’s side still possess speed, physicality and counterattacking quality through players such as Sadio Mané and Ismaïla Sarr, but another defeat would leave their hopes of reaching the round of 32 in real danger.

Check out our best bets for the match, featuring Krépin Diatta to commit two or more fouls at 12/5, our 9/2 Bet Builder Tip and Julian Ryerson to commit two or more fouls at 13/10.

Norway vs Senegal Best Bet

Recommended Bet: Krépin Diatta to commit 2+ fouls
Best Odds: 12/5 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
Advised Stake: 1pt

Krépin Diatta to commit at least two fouls is one of our strongest betting angles for Norway vs Senegal, with the Senegal right-sided defender set for a difficult individual battle against Antonio Nusa.

Nusa has been fouled two or more times in eight of his previous 11 competitive starts for Norway. His direct dribbling, acceleration and willingness to attack defenders make him one of Norway’s most reliable foul-winners.

The wider match-up also supports the selection. Recent right-backs and right wing-backs facing Norway when Nusa has started on the left have committed foul totals of 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2 and 1. Every player in that sample committed at least one foul, while six of the 12 reached two or more.

Diatta is likely to be asked to defend aggressively against Nusa while also managing Norway’s supporting runs down that side. With Martin Ødegaard capable of switching play and Haaland occupying Senegal’s centre-backs, Norway should have opportunities to isolate Nusa against Diatta in one-v-one situations.

Senegal’s match state adds to the case. After losing their opener to France, they cannot afford another defeat and may need to defend with intensity before springing forward on the counterattack. That urgency can increase the chance of tactical fouls, particularly if Nusa is able to turn and carry Norway up the pitch.

At 12/5, the odds imply an approximate 29% chance of Diatta committing two or more fouls. Given Nusa’s recent foul-winning record and the historical output of right-sided defenders in this match-up, the price looks attractive enough to justify a 1pt stake, provided Diatta starts at right-back or right wing-back.

Who is favourite to win Norway vs Senegal?

Norway are favourites at 6/5, implying an approximate 45% chance of victory. The draw is priced at 13/5, while Senegal are 5/2 outsiders.

The market reflects Norway’s flying start to the tournament and the presence of Haaland, who scored twice against Iraq. Senegal should provide a much tougher physical and athletic test, but their opening defeat to France means they may need to take more risks than Norway.

Norway vs Senegal Bet Builder Tip

Our Bet Builder Tip for Norway vs Senegal is:

• Sadio Mané to win over 1.5 fouls
• Julian Ryerson to win over 0.5 fouls
• Julian Ryerson to commit over 1.5 fouls
• Sadio Mané to commit over 0.5 fouls

Leg 1: Sadio Mané to win over 1.5 fouls

Mané should operate from Senegal’s left side, where his direct match-up with Ryerson could become one of the most important tactical battles of the game. The Senegal forward has been fouled three or more times in six of his previous seven competitive starts, showing how often opponents are forced into contact when he receives possession in wide or transitional areas.

Norway are expected to spend spells on the front foot through Ødegaard and Haaland, but Senegal’s best route forward may come through quick counters into Mané. That should give him opportunities to isolate Ryerson and draw fouls when driving inside or attacking the space behind Norway’s right-back.

Leg 2: Julian Ryerson to win over 0.5 fouls

Ryerson is not just a defensive full-back in this match-up. He is likely to be involved in Norway’s build-up down the right and may push forward when Norway establish territory, which can bring him into direct contact with Mané.

The Norway defender has been fouled two or more times in four of his last six competitive starts for his country, including two matches where he won at least three fouls. With Mané expected to track him, press him and compete for loose balls on that flank, Ryerson only needs to draw one foul for this leg to land.

Leg 3: Julian Ryerson to commit over 1.5 fouls

This is the strongest statistical leg in the Bet Builder. Ryerson has committed at least two fouls in six of his previous seven competitive Norway starts, reaching three or more on two occasions.

His likely defensive assignment against Mané makes that record particularly relevant. Mané’s pace, strength and ability to change direction quickly can force defenders into repeated challenges, especially when Senegal break forward before Norway’s midfield has fully recovered.

Leg 4: Sadio Mané to commit over 0.5 fouls

Mané’s defensive work rate also supports the final leg. He has committed at least one foul in 26 of his 33 tournament appearances for Senegal, with two or more fouls in 16 of those matches.

That makes over 0.5 fouls committed a logical addition to the Bet Builder. If Ryerson advances from right-back and Norway try to overload that side, Mané may be required to track runners, press aggressively and make recovery challenges in his own half.

The four selections complement one another because they are all built around the same flank battle. Ryerson and Mané should be directly engaged both ways: Mané carrying Senegal forward and drawing contact, Ryerson defending aggressively, then Ryerson advancing for Norway and forcing Mané into defensive work.

At the time of writing, the Bet Builder pays a best price of 9/2 with bet365, implying an approximate 18% chance of all four legs landing. Given the strong foul-winning and foul-committing records on both sides of this individual match-up, that price looks worth considering, provided both players start in their expected roles.

Make sure to get the best odds on your Bet Builder with Oddschecker’s Bet Builder Comparison Tool.

Norway vs Senegal Player Prop Bet

Recommended Bet: Julian Ryerson to commit 2+ fouls
Best Odds: 13/10 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
Advised Stake: 1pt

Julian Ryerson to commit at least two fouls is an appealing player prop, with Norway’s right-back set for a difficult defensive assignment against Mané.

Ryerson has committed two or more fouls in six of his previous seven competitive starts for Norway, reaching three or more on two occasions. That makes this a repeatable player trend rather than a one-off angle, especially in matches where Norway’s full-backs are asked to defend wide areas aggressively.

The match-up strengthens the selection further. Mané has been fouled three or more times in six of his previous seven competitive starts for Senegal, showing how consistently he draws contact when driving at defenders, receiving the ball in transition or protecting possession under pressure.

Ryerson is likely to be directly responsible for that battle down Norway’s right and Senegal’s left. If Norway push forward through Ødegaard, Nusa and Haaland, there should be space for Senegal to release Mané quickly on the counterattack. Those recovery situations can force Ryerson into tactical fouls, especially if Mané receives the ball facing goal.

At 13/10, the odds imply an approximate 43.5% chance of Ryerson committing two or more fouls. Given he has cleared this line in six of his previous seven competitive Norway starts, and now faces a player who consistently wins fouls for Senegal, the price looks worth a 1pt stake, provided Ryerson starts at right-back.

Norway vs Senegal Predicted Lineups

The predicted lineups point to Norway sticking with the core of the side that beat Iraq 4-1, with Erling Haaland leading the line and Martin Ødegaard providing the main creative support from midfield. Antonio Nusa is expected to start from the left, while Julian Ryerson should continue at right-back, creating the key flank battle against Sadio Mané.

Senegal are expected to line up with Nicolas Jackson through the middle, supported by Mané from the left and Ismaïla Sarr from the right. Krépin Diatta is projected at right-back, which would place him directly up against Nusa, while Kalidou Koulibaly and Moussa Niakhaté should anchor the defence.

Norway predicted XI:
Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe; Ødegaard, Berge, Aursnes; Sørloth, Haaland, Nusa.

Senegal predicted XI:
Mendy; Diouf, Koulibaly, Niakhaté, Diatta; Camara, Gueye, Gueye; Mané, Jackson, Sarr.

Norway vs Senegal Match Prediction

Norway announced their return to the World Cup stage in impressive fashion, beating Iraq 4-1 and immediately putting themselves in a strong position to qualify from Group I. With Haaland already off the mark and Ødegaard pulling the strings, Solbakken’s side have the attacking quality to trouble Senegal.

A draw would still leave Norway in a very strong position to reach the knockout rounds, but they may see this as an opportunity to take control of the group. Senegal, by contrast, are already under pressure after their 3-1 defeat to France and may need to take more risks than they would like.

Thiaw’s side competed well for long spells in their opener and caused France problems before eventually being punished. Their pace in transition through Mané and Sarr should give Norway something to think about, but leaving space for Haaland, Nusa and Ødegaard could prove costly.

This should be more competitive than Norway’s opening match, with Senegal capable of creating chances, but Norway’s sharper attacking structure and greater momentum make them narrow favourites.

Score Prediction: Norway 2-1 Senegal