Mark Stinchcombe provides his best bets for Saturday's busy World Cup schedule, including Kane & Messi both to bag.
Panama v England – 22:00See All Odds
Harry Kane to Score 2+ Goals
Advised stake: 1pt
Best odds: 12/5 (bet365)
England come into this level on points with Ghana on four, only above them by one extra goal on goal difference. Thomas Tuchel’s men know they must equal or better Ghana’s/Croatia’s result to finish top against an already eliminated Panama. Win the group and play a third place team or come second and play one of Colombia or Portugal. So there is big motivation to go out and win this, especially after the poor performance against Ghana.
So who’s the most likely to lead England to victory? Harry Kane of course. He’s got 79 goals in 114 caps with the next highest likely starter just seven in Declan Rice. Kane is already off the mark this tournament with a brace against Croatia and overall has seven goals in World Cup group stages, including a hat-trick against Panama in Russia in 2018. His super sub options are also great, Ollie Watkins has four goals in eight starts and three goals off the bench and Ivan Toney comes in off the back of a 41 goal season for Al Ahli.
Croatia v Ghana – 22:00See All Odds
Croatia to beat Ghana
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 5/6 (AK Bets)
Ghana are qualified with four points so it’s just a case of where they finish. Will they try and leapfrog England? It’s a difficult task given the results required and that’s before you factor in their ultra defensive style under manager Carlos Quieroz. They may even look to rest and rotate ahead of the knockouts as we’ve seen with some teams already. Second or third in the group will likely play one of Colombia or Portugal but with that group not being completed until after this match it’s unlikely either of these sides are aiming to finish in a specific spot.
Unless there’s tonnes of changes, I think we have to back this Croatia side to win at the prices given they are likely to play on the front foot whilst we’ve seen Ghana sit back in both of their games despite a huge difference in class of their opponents. Ghana have averaged just 29.6% possession – the second lowest in the tournament. Croatia have scored three goals so far, creating 2.35 xG, including five big chances and should get the chances needed to take all three points. Manager Zlatko Dalić has an excellent World Cup record having finished third and second at the two previous tournaments.
Colombia v Portugal – 00:30See All Odds
Over 2.5 Match Goals
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 1/1 (Various)
This mouthwatering clash will decide who wins Group K. Colombia have a 100% record and six points where as Portugal are two behind on four points so must win to overtake the South Americans whilst Colombia just need to avoid defeat. The winner of the group will play a third place team in the round of 32 and then a projected clash versus Switzerland but second place will play Ghana/Croatia and then most likely a daunting match versus Spain in the round of 16.
So there is a huge carrot for winning the group. Therefore it’s no surprise Portugal are best price Even money and Colombia 3/1. As a result of the permutations and Portugal’s clear motivation from the off, I think the best bet is to back Over 2.5 goals as the underdog at Evens. If Portugal can find the breakthrough, all of a sudden Colombia will have to come out and it could lead to an end-to-end game. There have been over 2.5 goals in seven of the last 10 competitive Portugal matches and in seven of the last 11 competitive Colombia games.
DR Congo v Uzbekistan – 00:30See All Odds
DR Congo to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 6/4 (Sky Bet)
With Uzbekistan all but eliminated (they need to win and make a big dent in their -7 goal difference as a third place team) this match is all about DR Congo. With them only on one point, all they need to do is win and are 4/5 to do so. They’ve been fantastic defensively, only conceding one each to Colombia and Portugal and an overall xG against tally of just 1.63. So with the foundation of their defence, it’s likely a low scoring victory will do the job.
Uzbekistan look ideal opponents having conceded eight goals already, with only Tunisia having conceded more. They’ve conceded 32 shots already and DR Congo should be able to apply enough pressure to break the deadlock. By backing Under 3.5 goals alongside DR Congo the odds increase from 4/5 to 6/4 and it’s the way to play it given DR Congo’s defensive solidity coupled with their attacking caution.
Algeria v Austria – 03:00See All Odds
BetTom
Algeria vs Austria - Draw
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 5/4 (Various)
A bizarre match set to take place at the end of the group stages. With both sides on three points having lost to Argentina and beaten Jordan, they know they cannot finish first or bottom and that a draw will guarantee they both go through. However, the team that finishes second will mostly likely play Spain in the next round.
With a draw, Austria would maintain second having beaten Jordan by more goals than Algeria. But if Austria try to lose, will Algeria take on the impetus and try to win knowing the fate is Spain rather than Switzerland? I think there will be an element of integrity here in-terms of not trying to lose, with a coach of Ralf Ragnick’s stature probably relishing a clash with Spain.
Therefore with a draw suiting both sides, I think it makes sense to back it at 13/10, knowing in these scenarios in somewhere like Italy’s Serie B, it would likely be odds-on.
Jordan v Argentina – 03:00See All Odds
Lionel Messi to Score 2+ Goals
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 11/4 (bet365)
With FIFA’s new first tie-breaker being head-to-head Argentina are guaranteed group winners and Jordan are guaranteed to finish bottom. So this is essentially a dead rubber, with Argentina focusing on the round of 32 and a clash against Uruguay/Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia. This match is being played at the AT&T stadium in Dallas which is one of four grounds with climate control meaning it should reduce the physical demands on the players compared to the other grounds.
There’s six days between this match and Argentina’s knockout tie so I’m not expecting wholesale changes in-order to maintain their rhythm. Lionel Scaloni is already managing the fitness of Julian Alvarez so surely he will give Lionel Messi the chance to increase his five goal haul and further extend his record breaking 18-goal World Cup total. With Messi, Mbappe, Haaland and Vinicius Jnr having all scored multiple braces already, the race for the golden boot is really hotting up and these superstars look to be spurring each other on for more.
