How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

TIP 1: Matheus Cunha - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 12/5 at AK Bets while publishing.

Odds Implied: 29% | AI Probability: 40% | Expected Value: 36%

Matheus Cunha has been one of Brazil's standout performers in the tournament, scoring in each of his last two World Cup appearances to take his tally to three goals. His movement inside the penalty area has been exceptional, consistently finding space between defenders, while his confidence in front of goal continues to grow. With Vinicius Jr also among the tournament's leading scorers, Cunha has extra motivation to keep pace in the Golden Boot race. Against a Japan side that likes to play on the front foot, Brazil should create opportunities, and Cunha is likely to be at the centre of them.

Santos Matheus Cunha
Brazil v Japan [Anytime Goalscorer]
5/2

Tip 2: Bruno Guimaraes - To Score Or Assist - 1pt

Best odds of 11/4 at Unibet while publishing.

Odds Implied: 27% | AI Probability: 34% | Expected Value: 28%

Bruno Guimarães has registered a goal contribution in three of his last five matches, highlighting his growing influence in Brazil's attacking play. Operating as the link between midfield and attack, he regularly arrives in dangerous positions while also creating chances through his passing range.

Guimarães remains one of Brazil's primary set-piece takers, increasing his assist potential from corners and free kicks, and he is never hesitant to test goalkeepers from distance. Casemiro and Gabriel, who are some of the best headers of the ball present in the Brazilian side, only increases his chances of grabbing an assist.

If Brazil dominate possession as expected, the Newcastle midfielder should once again be heavily involved in the final third.

Moura Bruno Guimaraes
Brazil v Japan [To Score Or Assist]
11/4

TIP 3: Jamal Musiala - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 2/1 at AK Bets while publishing.

Odds Implied: 33% | AI Probability: 36% | Expected Value: 7%

Jamal Musiala has found the net twice in his last five appearances and remains Germany's biggest attacking weapon despite not yet reaching his highest level this tournament. His ability to glide past defenders, attack space between the lines and produce moments of individual brilliance makes him a constant threat in knockout football. Germany will expect to control large spells against Paraguay, and Musiala's freedom in advanced areas should give him multiple opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

Jamal Musiala
Germany v Paraguay [Anytime Goalscorer]
21/10

TIP 4: Brahim Diaz - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 15/13 at Unibet while publishing.

Odds Implied: 47% | AI Probability: 53% | Expected Value: 14%

Brahim Diaz has recorded at least one shot on target in eight of his last ten starts for Morocco, underlining his consistency as their primary attacking outlet. Whether cutting inside onto his stronger foot or finding space around the edge of the area, Diaz regularly forces goalkeepers into action. Even against a disciplined Dutch defence, Morocco's counter-attacking style is likely to create chances for their star playmaker, making at least one effort on target a realistic expectation.

Brahim Diaz Over 0.5
Netherlands v Morocco [Player Shots On Target]
15/13

TIP 5: Netherlands - Win Market - 1pt

Best odds of 11/8 at QuinnBet while publishing.

This promises to be one of the standout ties of the Round of 32. Morocco reached the semi-finals four years ago and have once again shown resilience throughout the group stage, but the Netherlands arrive with greater momentum after topping their group and scoring freely. Cody Gakpo has been in outstanding form, while the Dutch have looked balanced in both attack and defence. Morocco are capable of making life difficult, but over 90 minutes the Netherlands appear to have the greater quality and should have enough to progress.

Netherlands
Netherlands v Morocco
7/5