The 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches its climax on Sunday as Spain and Argentina collide at MetLife Stadium with football’s biggest prize on the line. Spain are chasing their first title since 2010, while Argentina aim to become back-to-back world champions by defending the trophy they won in Qatar four years ago.

Both finalists have been among the tournament’s standout sides, but their paths could not be more different. Luis de la Fuente’s Spain have overwhelmed opponents with relentless pressing, trademark possession and youthful exuberance, exemplified in a 2-0 semi-final win over France where Rodri dictated play and La Roja did not allow a single shot on target. Argentina, under Lionel Scaloni, have instead relied on experience, composure and Lionel Messi’s continued brilliance to navigate a tough knockout run.

Who is the Betting Favourite in Spain vs Argentina?

According to latest odds, Spain are clear favourites to beat Argentina, with La Roja having around a 34% implied win probability to lift the trophy and Lionel Messi’s side priced at roughly a 28% chance of securing back-to-back World Cup titles.

Spain vs Argentina Best Betting Tip

Recommended Bet: Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime Goalscorer
Best Odds: 19/10 (AK Bets)
Advised Stake: 1pt

Mikel Oyarzabal has found the net in six of his last 10 appearances for Spain and arrives into the World Cup final in outstanding goalscoring form. The Spain striker has scored nine goals in his last 10 starts for his country and an impressive 12 goals in his last 14, underlining just how clinical he has become as Luis de la Fuente's first-choice centre-forward.

He has carried that form into the World Cup, where his five goals make him Spain's leading scorer heading into the final. The underlying numbers are just as encouraging. Oyarzabal's shot count at the tournament reads 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 5, 5, with only Lamine Yamal attempting more shots for Spain. His willingness to shoot from both inside and outside the penalty area ensures he is constantly involved whenever Spain enter the final third.

Perhaps most importantly for an anytime goalscorer selection, Oyarzabal has consistently tested opposition goalkeepers. He has registered at least one shot on target in every World Cup match except the group-stage meeting with Uruguay, demonstrating both his accuracy and his ability to get into dangerous scoring positions. Add in the fact that he is also Spain's designated penalty taker, and he has multiple routes to finding the net in what promises to be a closely contested World Cup final.

Spain vs Argentina Bet Builder Tip

Our Spain vs Argentina Bet Builder Tip includes:

  • Lionel Messi Over 1.5 - Shots On Target
  • Lamine Yamal Over 1.5 - Shots On Target
  • Rodri Over 2.5 - Tackles
  • Enzo Fernandez Over 1.5 - Fouls

Best odds of 11/1 at bet365 at the time of writing.

Lionel Messi – Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Lionel Messi remains Argentina's biggest attacking threat and looks well placed to register at least two shots on target in the World Cup final. His shots on target returns at the tournament read 0, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, meaning he has cleared this line in four of his last five appearances. Although he failed to hit the target against Switzerland, Messi responded with two outstanding displays against England and in the quarter-finals, constantly testing the goalkeeper. With responsibility for penalties, direct free-kicks and the majority of Argentina's attacking play, the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner should once again be heavily involved whenever his side create chances.

Lamine Yamal – Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Lamine Yamal has established himself as Spain's most dangerous attacking outlet throughout the tournament. His shots on target returns in World Cup starts read 0, 2, 2, 4 and 0, while his last nine appearances for Spain have produced 0, 2, 2, 4, 0, 1, 3, 2 and 2 shots on target. The underlying shot volume is equally encouraging, with his World Cup shot totals of 0, 6, 3, 6 and 1 highlighting just how frequently he looks to test opposition goalkeepers. Whether cutting inside onto his stronger left foot or shooting from distance, Yamal is never afraid to pull the trigger, making two or more efforts on target a realistic expectation.

Rodri – Over 2.5 Tackles

Rodri heads into the final after another dominant midfield performance against France, where he completely controlled the game both in and out of possession. His World Cup tackle numbers of 4, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2 and 1 show just how consistently he contributes defensively, clearing this line in four of his seven tournament appearances. Against Argentina's talented midfield and Lionel Messi dropping into central areas, Rodri is expected to be heavily involved in breaking up attacks. With the World Cup on the line, another industrious display featuring at least three tackles looks well within reach.

Enzo Fernández – Over 1.5 Fouls Committed

Enzo Fernández has committed 3, 0, 2, 1 and 2 fouls across his last five appearances, clearing this line in three of those matches. Spain's midfield trio of Rodri, Pedri and Fabián Ruiz thrive on long spells of possession and are excellent at drawing contact when opponents attempt to disrupt their rhythm. That style of play could force Enzo into several tactical fouls as Argentina look to prevent Spain from dominating the ball. He was also fortunate to avoid a booking against England in the semi-final after a series of robust challenges, and in what promises to be a fiercely contested final, another physical display from the Chelsea midfielder would come as little surprise.

Spain vs Argentina Player Betting Tip

Recommended Bet: Enzo Fernandez Over 1.5 Shots
Best Odds: 8/5 (Virgin Bet)
Advised Stake: 1pt

Enzo Fernández has quietly become Argentina's second-most active shooter behind Lionel Messi, making this an appealing selection for the World Cup final. The Chelsea midfielder has exceeded 1.5 shots in three of Argentina's four knockout matches, with his World Cup shot totals reading 4, 0, 2, 4, 2 and 0. Looking at a broader sample, his last 10 appearances for Argentina have produced 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0, 1, 2, 3 and 0 shots, with only Messi attempting more efforts during that period.

Enzo is encouraged to arrive late on the edge of the penalty area and isn't afraid to shoot from distance whenever space opens up. Against a Spain side expected to dominate possession, Argentina will likely look to transition quickly, with Enzo often the player arriving in support outside the box. His willingness to strike from range, coupled with his increased attacking involvement throughout the knockout stages, gives him multiple opportunities to clear this line.