Spain vs Argentina

The ds reaches its conclusion on Sunday as Spain and Argentina battle for football's biggest prize at MetLife Stadium. Spain are looking to become world champions for the first time since 2010, while Argentina are aiming to retain the trophy they lifted in Qatar four years ago.

Both nations have impressed throughout the tournament, but only one can leave New Jersey with the World Cup.

Who is the Betting Favourite to Win the World Cup 2026?

According to recent odds at Oddschecker, Spain are the betting favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, with La Roja having an implied win probability of around 59%, while Lionel Messi’s Argentina side sit at roughly 41% to lift the trophy.

Spain vs Argentina Predicted Lineups

Spain (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Fabián Ruiz; Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Álex Baena; Mikel Oyarzabal.

Argentina (4-4-2): Emiliano Martínez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Nicolás Tagliafico; Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister, Giuliano Simeone; Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez.

Spain vs Argentina Match Prediction

Spain have looked like the tournament's most complete side. Their midfield has controlled virtually every game, Rodri has dictated the tempo throughout the World Cup, and their high press overwhelmed France in a comprehensive 2-0 semi-final victory.

Argentina, however, possess the one player capable of changing any game on his own. Lionel Messi has enjoyed arguably his finest World Cup, producing eight goals and four assists while continuing to lead Argentina in both chance creation and shot volume.

The reigning champions have shown tremendous resilience in the knockout rounds, but Spain's ability to dominate possession and suffocate opponents without the ball gives them a slight edge.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Argentina.

Spain vs Argentina Bet Builder Tip

Our Bet Builder Tip for Spain vs Argentina includes the following legs:

  • Rodri Over 2.5 - Tackles
  • Cristian Romero Over 1.5 - Tackles
  • Lamine Yamal Over 1.5 - Fouls
  • Leandro Paredes Over 1.5 - Fouls

Best odds available of 7/1 at SpreadEx at the time of writing.

Rodri Over 2.5 Tackles

Rodri has cleared this line in three of his last five World Cup appearances, with tackle totals of 4, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2 and 1. Spain's midfield general is the heartbeat of their pressing system, stepping forward aggressively to win the ball back as soon as possession is lost.

With Argentina expected to look for quick transitions through Lionel Messi and Alexis Mac Allister, Rodri should have plenty of opportunities to get involved defensively. He has already registered 22 tackles at this World Cup, underlining just how influential he has been without the ball.

Cristian Romero Over 1.5 Tackles

Cristian Romero has consistently been one of Argentina's busiest defenders, recording tackle counts of 4, 2, 3, 2, 1 and 2 during the World Cup. He averages 2.33 tackles per 90 minutes in the tournament and is likely to be heavily involved once again against Spain's fluid attack.

With Mikel Oyarzabal constantly making runs in behind and Lamine Yamal drifting inside from the right, Romero will regularly be forced into stepping out of the defensive line to make challenges. Given Spain's ability to dominate possession, another game with at least two tackles looks well within reach.

Lamine Yamal Over 1.5 Fouls Committed

Lamine Yamal's attacking brilliance often overshadows the work he does without the ball. His foul counts at this World Cup read 3, 2, 5, 1 and 0, and he owns the highest fouls committed per 90 minutes of any player in Spain's squad. Luis de la Fuente demands an aggressive counter-press whenever Spain lose possession, with Yamal frequently chasing back and making tactical fouls to stop opposition counters before they develop.

He is also likely to spend much of the evening tracking Nicolás Tagliafico, who has won 3, 4, 1, 2, 2 and 1 fouls during the tournament. That direct battle on Spain's right flank should create plenty of situations where Yamal is forced into making challenges, making this an appealing selection.

Leandro Paredes Over 1.5 Fouls Committed

Spain's midfield trio of Rodri, Pedri and Fabián Ruiz are among the best in the world at drawing contact under pressure. Paredes has committed two or more fouls in each of his last two matches, and with Argentina expected to spend long spells chasing possession, another physical display from the midfielder looks probable.

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