Our golf expert brings you his preview and predictions for this week's Major, the 2021 Open Championship.
Open Championship - Winner
Two years without an Open is a very long time but it is now upon us at the wonderful Royal St George's in Kent. It does genuinely feel like a different universe when Shane Lowry soaked up that walk on the 72nd to the rapturous Irish crowd at Portrush. One of the best scenes ever in the sport which was closely matched earlier in the year with Mickelson winning at Kiawah Island. Truth be told both venues suited each golfer and there is no doubt a trend towards more experienced types winning an Open Championship. Lowry, Molinari, Stenson and Zach Johnson in recent years certainly show a few miles on the clock is a distinct advantage when playing at these links tracks. St George's should test approach play the most with some interesting undulations on the greens and run offs. Fairways can meander in a way where even a decent tee shot can get the wrong slope and end up in some thick rough. Weather looks to be fair throughout with plenty of sunshine and a light breeze. The course isn't as firm as they would like but with this weeks weather it will surely get quicker as we head to the weekend.
Jon Rahm at 17/2
9/1 currently awaits Rahm backers on the exchange and it remains a big enough price for undoubtedly the best player in the game right now. Rahm triumphed at Torrey Pines with what looked a fair way from his best. A few weeks previous he had produced his best at the Memorial when having to withdraw with a six shot lead. It was no surprise that he contended at Torrey and he just pulled out that extra bit when asked at the death. Last week in Scotland he was far from his best again missing numerous short putts throughout the week and struggling to make the requisite birdies at the weekend. Nevertheless it looked perfect preparation for an Open Championship that should really suit given the weather forecast. He has a higher ball flight than I'd like for a single figure golfer to win an Open but the fine weather should mean his ball flight is an advantage this week. There is nothing wrong with his game whatsoever and a tougher test than last week should give him more of a chance to separate himself from the field. A links specialist now with two wins on Irish links and clearly the best golfer around right now and the 9/1 on offer looks a lot tastier than similar prices about other golfers who went through similar form in the past 5 to 10 years. Golf will probably not be dominated by any one golfer these days but for Rahm he looks better equipped than many before him to win more of these. Of McIlroy, Thomas and Dustin and others who have graced the top 5 down the years Rahm is by far the most consistent putter of them all. Spieth on his day is the best but even he is prone to long periods in the doldrums with the flat stick. Rahm is consistently good on the greens and this could result in more majors for him than what we have become accustomed to with the top handful in the world. Bryson needs a particular type of layout whilst Rahm is capable on almost every single one. There is a lot going for him to suggest he could comfortably be the most successful golfer of this generation in the majors. He didn't get the job done last week, but on a birdie fest it is tougher to separate yourself. In Kent this week Rahm looks set for quick double of majors.
4pts J.Rahm 17/2
Jordan Spieth at 20/1 (9 Places)
Jordan Spieth has had some dips in form during his career but one constant has remained, his performances at Augusta and Open Championships. Spieth has made 7 cuts from 7 at this event with two top tens outside his win in 2017. Open tracks which don't particularly test you length wise off the tee should suit Spieth and the nature of this course may just play exactly into his hands. His imagination is second to none which was on full display when winning in Texas earlier in the season. The slopes on the fairways and around the greens will suit the Texan who will surely not go the rest of his career without winning at least one more of these Open Championships. A top 20 at Torrey was a fine showing at a track that certainly doesn't suit him on the face of it. In fact he hasn't missed a cut ever since his weekend off at the Farmers at Torrey in late January. It has been a fine run since and if the putter remains warm this week he will be a contender for his fourth major.
3pts each-way J.Spieth 20/1 (1/5 9)
Paul Casey at 45/1 (8 Places)
Paul Casey is one who would have been suited by the major venues this year and he has somewhat capitalised. 4th at the PGA and 7th at the US Open are tremendous preparation for a week under the pressure of the home fans. Lowry brought home the trophy last time and it wouldn't surprise me should Casey to a similar job this week. He is worthy of a major and his best effort in this one came back in 2010 when he finished 3rd after being the only real threat to Oosthuizen early on that Sunday. Ever since he has had forgettable journeys to this event but I believe he has arrived with the best game he ever has had and possibly the best outlook to tournament golf also. He now realises how lucky he is to have had his career and has taken the pressure off himself in recent years. 4th and 7th at the last two majors have been achieved whilst losing strokes to the field on the greens. An upturn of fortune with the flat stick should give him a huge chance with a perfect game to plot his way around this track.
1.5pts each-way P.Casey 45/1 (1/5 8)
Marc Leishman at 70/1 (8 Places)
There is a danger of falling into a trap with Leishman and back him on almost every single major layout that suits simply because he looks like the prime candidate to break his major duck at some stage. I managed to detach myself from him at Torrey last time out but he certainly looks worth playing again at an event where he has scored three top 6 finishes. The Aussie drove it magnificently last time out at the Travelers which is an excellent sign as this is usually his downfall. He finished 3rd there and had room for improvement in his approach game. He is rolling the ball nicely too and favourable conditions could mean he contends another Open. There are a lot of signs that this should have been his year. Four very favourable venues for him at the majors and an improving game. It hasn't quite happened yet, but it could be special week in an event where Australians have a tremendous record.
1.25pt each-way M.Leishman 70/1 (1/5 8)
Branden Grace at 70/1 (8 Places)
Branden Grace ticks plenty of the boxes when you come to a major week like this but when you couple that with a great ability to go well on this type of test then you have a perfect recipe. He fired a third round 62 to break the scoring record in a major back at Birkdale in 2017 and has a Dunhill Links win to his name. A win in Qatar has always been a decent pointer to links form also. He has everything going for him in that regard. A win in Puerto Rico was emotional to say the least a month after his Dad had passed away. Similar resolve may be on the horizon this week with some excellent recent form. He was average last week in Scotland but sights will have been set on St George's and 7th at Torrey and 4th and Muirfield Village is some of the best form he has produced for years. His price is only fair, I'd have preferred bigger. He will be popular nonetheless and I'd say plenty could be celebrating should he manage to get his hands on the Claret Jug on Sunday.
1pt each-way B.Grace 70/1 (1/5 8)
Sergio Garcia at 70/1 (8 Places)
Morikawa is an interesting prospect given his price over 40 on the exchange. He certainly has the game to contend an Open here but the lack of experience on these tracks is probably enough just to put me off adding him to the staking plan. Fleetwood is a likely runner also but the price just doesn't quite capture me and he will be relegated to the subs bench also. Flying slightly under the radar and at a bigger price than the two I have just mentioned is Sergio Garcia. The Spaniard has been trotting along nicely of late posting top 20s at the Charles Schwab, US Open and BMW in Europe. The putter as always remains a big issue but it is used to performing on links greens where he has a great record. He has twice been a runner up in this event and has been too easily overlooked by the market.
1pt each-way S.Garcia 70/1 (1/5 8)
Lucas Herbert at 100/1 (8 Places)
Kevin Kisner can be a danger on any major track that demands accuracy from tee to green and doesn't overly test you length wise. He has been playing super stuff lately with two top 10s on the trot Stateside and could give a bold account this week. I'm unsure if he has the bottle to win it and for that reason I'll leave him on the bench. Lucas Herbert is in the throws of something special right now and can not be underestimated as he takes to his second Open Championship. He won impressively two weeks ago in Ireland beating a decent field by three shots. He finished one shot out of the playoff on Sunday in Scotland. Overall he arrives with some of the best form in Europe, and a links boost in Scotland last week. He would face great pressure should he be in the mix on Sunday but he has coped well with it so far. A win last year in the Desert is another positive sign towards Open form. He is an inexperienced sort to land this title but he is in fine form and may just ride the crest of a wave to another win this weekend.
1pt each-way L.Herbert 100/1 (1/5 8)
Chris Kirk at 250/1 (12 Places)
Finally I'll have a stab on Chris Kirk. Kirk has been playing some solid stuff this season with four top tens posted. He frustrated last time out at the Rocket Mortgage when we were on at 80/1. A disappointing finish there but he could take this Kent venue in decent conditions. He is a streaky sort with the putter but certainly has the long game to keep it tidy in a week like this. Kirk has only played two Opens, of which one was his best major finish to date finishing 19th at Royal Liverpool, another week of good conditions. Similar could play out here and should he manage to hole a few putts on these greens he could be a cracking bet around the 250s mark. Whatever happens it is simply delightful to have the best event in Golf back on our screens. Enjoy
1pt each-way C.Kirk 250/1 (1/6 12)
