After tipping both winners at the Italian Open and Wells Fargo last weekend, Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Byron Nelson.
Byron Nelson
The Byron Nelson has a long history and recently has hopped between venues but for the third year running we return to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas with Scottie Scheffler headlining. Scheffler is a beast as we know but it remains to be seen what these two golfers offer with the PGA Championship just around the corner.
Craig Ranch is one of the easiest tracks the pros will play all year and Korean KH Lee has won both renewals here at 25 and 26 under par. Fellow Korean Sung Kang won the event at Trinity Forest back in 2019 and it's worth noting that only five Americans have won this event in the last 15 stagings. That is probably due to the wind that often materialises in Texas with Internationals having a shade more experience growing up in those conditions.
Scott, Day and Bowditch have also won this event with Australians being well versed in playing in the wind. Ball striking is key around here, especially approach play. Four of the top five last year ranked inside the top 10 in approach play for the week whilst five of the top six made the top 10 in the same department back in 2021. It's a place where birdies are needed on almost every other hole so birdie or better percentages are also worth a glance.
Hideki Matsuyama at 22/1 (Eight Places)
Spieth is now a non runner and Scheffler is as short as 7/2 but I'll look further down the betting market and top billing goes the way of Hideki Matsuyama. Asians have had a hold on this event down the years and it'd be no surprise to see one of the most talented ever from that continent continue the great form here.
He finished 3rd here last year and for the most part has had solid form this calendar year improving since March with a top five at the Players Championship followed by 15th in Texas and 16th at the Masters. Matsuyama loves birdie fests and an event where approach play is key, as we've seen down the years with his form at Scottsdale.
He remains a very solid option when looking for the best iron players and having returned from Japan having got some neck treatment looked to be swinging it freely on a video posted to his social media channels. 22/1 looks like a very fair price, almost double the price of third favourite Tyrrell Hatton which doesn't quite look right to me.
2.5pts each-way H.Matsuyama 22/1 1/5 8 (bet365 each way extra, Paddypower)
Stephan Jaeger at 40/1 (10 Places)
Stephan Jaeger must be included in the staking plan having really got the bit between his teeth with his irons. 8th on approach at Riviera, 19th at PGA National, 30th at Sawgrass, 2nd in Mexico and 37th last week at Quail Hollow are a solid run of figures with the irons.
His game off the tee and around the greens has been sound also but has seen little in the way of rewards with a consistently poorly performing putter. His best result this season came in this state at the Houston Open back in November where he ranked 6th on the greens for the week. Towards the end of last year his game was inverted as to what it is now, putting well but ball striking was poor.
He looks to have reached a new level with his long game and he's only looking one good week on the greens to capitalise. He will be worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks but for now we can get involved around the 40/1 mark. On one of the easiest tracks of the season it is also worth noting that he holds the record for the lowest score in a PGA Tour sanctioned event when he shot 59 at the Ellie May Classic back in 2016.
1.25pts each-way S.Jaeger 40/1 1/5 10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Justin Suh at 80/1 (Eight Places)
It's a weak enough affair this and it'd be no surprise to see a rookie or maiden take some inspiration from Wyndham Clark's victory last weekend. At 80/1 it's hard to turn down the Korn Ferry Tour player of the year in 2022 Justin Suh. He had a baptism of fire in September missing his opening three cuts on this his first full season on tour.
Since then although the heroics have been few and far between he has made all 15 cuts and for a rookie that is an impressive run. 5th at the Honda and 6th at the Players Championship maybe suggests his game lends itself to the tougher golf courses, but in a field such as this with a handful with one eye on next week this represents a fair opportunity to get into the mix.
His iron play certainly has deteriorated since mid march but it's worth noting he has improved his approach play the last two weeks running. The putter has bailed him out on a few occasions but I fully expect this talented 25 year old to hit the ground running soon once again with his ball striking and a venue such as this may just open the door to a maiden victory.
1pt each-way J.Suh 80/1 1/5 8 (Bet365 each way extra, WilliamHill)
Davis Thompson at 125/1 (Eight Places)
Adam Hadwin missed the cut on the number at Quail Hollow last week but a second round of 68 was a fair indication that his game isn't in too bad a shape and is on the shortlist here. He has a great record at the desert courses in California and a birdie fest is right up his street. Strong iron play is needed here and there just hasn't been enough evidence that he will turn up here with a sufficient approach game to compete despite the improvement in round two at Quail.
Instead I'll opt for another rookie in the shape of Davis Thompson. Thompson started his rookie season in fine form finishing 9th at the Fortinet and 12th at the Shriners. It has been hit and miss since but a runner up finish to Jon Rahm in the Californian desert suggests he is capable of much better than what he has been showing recently.
12th at the Shriners was at 16 under par whilst his runner up at the American Express was at a total of 26 under par. Similar will be needed this week even with a par 5 converted to a par 4 but there is every reason to suggest one of the easier weeks of the year will play to his strengths once again.
1pt each-way D.Thompson 125/1 1/5 8 (Skybet, Paddy Power)
Jimmy Walker at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Finally I'll take the chance that Jimmy Walker makes the emotional trip back into the winners in his home state. Walker does have a win in Texas back in 2015 but is winless since his 2016 PGA victory. Health problems have plagued his last six years on tour but it finally looks like he is emerging from the darkness and makes plenty of appeal here this week at triple figure prices.
His last four strokeplay finishes read 14-15-25-22 and that represents consistency like we haven't seen from Walker in many years. Most notably he is hitting the ball long off the tee, almost as long as what he hit it when he won the PGA seven years ago. His approach play has improved over the past month to a level where he could easily compete and hot putter throughout April and May thus far means he could score heavily around Craig Ranch.
I expected a shorter price given he is back playing in Texas and this would make for one of the most welcoming and emotional stories on the tour in recent years.
1pt each-way J.Walker 100/1 1/5 8 (Bet365 each way extra, William Hill, Paddy Power)
