Niall Lyons has five selections for the John Deere Classic in Illinois.
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run is the latest in the 'birdie fest' swing before attention turns to Scotland and Liverpool over the next couple of weeks. This is a weakened field compared to what we've seen lately and quite possibly gives a chance to some bigger priced runners making the grade.
The course here is a shortish par 71 that doesn't tend to test the golfers off the tee much at all. Distance is preferred slightly over accuracy but must be said there is little in it and what you do off the tee shouldn't determine your fate. Instead that fate will be decided on approach or with the putter.
A hot putter is no doubt needed here to make the requisite scores to contend as low 60s rounds will be plentiful and there could easily be a flirtation with a round in the 50s. It's a true birdie fest where any momentum lost will be crucial.
John Deere Classic Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
We look to the previous two weeks at TPC River Highlands and Detroit for pointers as to who's scoring well as anyone not taking advantage of these easier layouts may be worth swerving. With a lot of wedges to play this week Sedgefield is another track we look to for any correlating form.
Nick Taylor at 45/1 (Eight Places)
Adam Hadwin came very close to adding to the Canadian wins on tour this season with a runner up finish last week and recent home Open winner Nick Taylor looks to have been slightly underestimated this time to add to his tally. Taylor has produced a sparkling campaign that culminated in his historic victory at Oakdale last month.
A missed cut at the US Open the week after was no surprise given the potential hangover from that home win and of course his lack of prowess off the tee which was always going to hurt a little around LA Country Club. Taylor has a poor record around here with three sub top 35 finishes and four missed cuts.
That is of little concern with last year's winner Poston not going any better than 64th in his four previous efforts at the course. Michael Kim was similar finishing 47-71 before winning and has since posted two missed cuts. Previous form is far from a pre requisite at this course and I'd prefer to concentrate on how good Taylor's game has been this season.
It caught the eye especially when finishing runner up to Scheffler at TPC Scottsdale and I was a little bit annoyed I wasn't livelier to his chances when he won in Canada. This time around in a much weakened field compared to what he has been competing in lately he should thrive and he is another with an excellent wedge game who can make it pay here when in the form of his career.
2pts each-way N.Taylor 45/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Cameron Young to Win at 20/1
Denny McCarthy is priced anywhere between 12-16/1 as I write, whilst the same applies to Russell Henley. These two players have obvious claims around a course that really suits their game. However, Cameron Young's top price is currently 20/1 and that looks too good to turn down in a field of this quality. Exactly this time three months ago, Young went off a well fancied 33/1 shot in the Masters whilst Henley and McCarthy both ranged from 125-150/1.
Young finished 7th that week and has since missed two cuts in his next seven appearances, with both of those being down to horrible weeks on the greens. Granted, the putter has been a big problem and although Young looks far from his best, and Deere Run would be far from the ideal course for him, the price dictates we just have to bet. His ball striking has still been in fair nick since that top 10 finish at Augusta but the main problems have come closer to the greens.
That being said, he is capable of extremely low rounds and I wouldn't be surprised should he go into the very low 60s a couple of times over the four days. Plenty have seemed to give up hope as his winless streak continues but this represents a massive chance and having been 33/1 in the Masters the 20/1 on offer here when the favourites are McCarthy and Henley mean we just have to weigh in.
3pts WIN C.Young 20/1
Lucas Glover managed his first top five finish since the St Jude last August and with all parts of his game firing looks one worth chancing at bigger odds this week in Illinois. Last week was his best four days with the irons since Colonial back in May of last year. Crucially it was his best week on the greens since the Honda back in early 2021.
That has been the club that has caused him all the problems and rounds of 64 and 65 over the weekend in Detroit should give him huge confidence for this week given his credentials with the wedge. His approach game gets better the closer he is to the green and he's one of the better players with the wedge ranking 23rd on tour this season for approaches from 50-125 yards.
His ball striking has always been his strength but ranking 5th on the greens last week is a huge boost to his chances and heading back to the scene of his latest victory in 2021 could provide all the ammunition he needs to go even better than last week.
1pt each-way L.Glover 90/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Joseph Bramlett at 66/1 (Eight Places)
Despite missing the cut last week I'm prepared to include Joseph Bramlett in the staking plan for my John Deere Classic tips at anything of 60/1 and above. The Californian suffered last week from a really poor putting performance but with the rest of his game in good nick he looks one to side with if he can get a bit of luck on the greens.
Things has been looking up in that department ranking 9th on the greens at the Byron Nelson then positive weeks with the same club at the Memorial and Travelers. His ball striking let him down at River Highlands and here we have a player who has missed his last two cuts but remains very potent given the gains he can make from tee to green.
He is another who excels with the wedge and from 50-150 yards can set himself apart from plenty of the field here. Top 20s at the Byron Nelson and Memorial in two of his last five appearances is an example of what he is capable of in much stronger fields. That bar is lowered this week and he can capitalise if the short stick behaves.
1pt each-way J.Bramlett 66/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Tyler Duncan at 175/1 (Eight Places)
One who appeals at 150/1+ is Tyler Duncan whose struggles with the putter continue. That is far from ideal for a course such as this but rounds of 70-68-66 had him a in fair position last week before slumping to a final round of 74 and eventually finishing in a tie for 47th.
The putter was the problem once again but it's worth noting that this was the 6th week on the trot that he had seen an improvement in those numbers and surely confidence with that club is beginning to grow. He finished 5th on the greens at the Honda in February for a top three finish so we can see when it comes together on the greens he can capitalise.
That doesn't look far away and last week he was 19th on approach, his best four days with the irons since the Byron Nelson 14 months ago, whilst 32nd off the tee was his best effort from the tee since the Players Championship back in March. A former winner of the RSM where wedge play is often extremely important, Duncan looks one to risk at really nice odds.
1pt each-way T.Duncan 175/1 (1/5 8) Bet 365 8 place market
