Niall Lyons has five selections for the Scottish Open in North Berwick.
Scottish Open - Winner
The Renaissance club in Berwick is the scene once again for the 5th year on the trot and rates one of the easier Links tracks we'll see on these Isles. Even in 2020 when the wind and rain blew an absolute hooley over the weekend Aaron Rai and Tommy Fleetwood still managed 11 under par to fight it out in the playoff. In 2019 nineteen players finished 17 under par or better. In 2021 34 players made double figures under par. Unless the weather plays a part this week scores will head towards the 20 under mark to compete.
Those at the top of the tee-to-green stats for the week have dominated leaderboards here down the years but with some nastier conditions forecast over the weekend the work the players do around the greens certainly contributes more than usual to those tee-to-green numbers.
That was evident in 2020 when conditions were poor over the weekend and the two fought out the playoff ranked 1st and 8th in the ATG category. There will be little room for error in any department if you want to win this, despite the possibility of low scores.
Scottish Open Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
There is no disputing the fact I've lucked out with Wyndham Clark having landed him twice this year already but I can't help but feel his game is still underestimated a little by the masses. His stats are among some of the best in the world this year and there is certainly an argument that he should be shorter in the betting.
After a long deliberation, I'm easing him off my list for others simply because of the weather forecast and the lack of evidence of him being able to cope in those conditions. I'm uneasy about the decision, however.
Tyrrell Hatton at 22/1 (Eight Places)
It's difficult to separate many at the top but my pick in the top handful goes to Tyrrell Hatton. The Englishman has produced an eye-catching display all year in the States with six top six finishes in some of the most high-profile events. He hasn't quite managed to get over the line but he has continually performed well in fields as strong as this and often stronger this season so we can expect a lot of him here. His last fifteen trips to either the Scottish Open, Open or Dunhill Links have yielded two wins, and a further 11 top 20 finishes only twice finishing outside the top 20 in those fifteen tries.
That's an incredible record to possess on links and he arrives with every bit as consistent form as Rory McIlroy. The 8/1 for Rory versus the 22/1 for Hatton doesn't quite stack up for me when you look at this year's performances and their history on links. Hatton is exemplary and must hold every chance of landing that overdue victory in 2023. He is putting the lights out which is a major bonus coming to slower greens that many will struggle to figure out. The Ryder Cup is in the bag for Hatton, but this is a big two weeks, and I fully expect him to figure in either of the two, and maybe both.
Alex Noren at 80/1 (12 Places)
Someone with a sneaky good record on these tracks who must be backed this week is Alex Noren. The one negative lately is that he hasn't driven the ball particularly well but that really shouldn't determine your fate around the Renaissance. Instead, it's worth concentrating on his latest two efforts in Detroit and Los Angeles where he produced two excellent tee-to-green displays.
His putter let him down in LA on route to a missed cut but with was a much better Detroit where he produced his best display with the irons since November last year and hit form once again with the flat stick. Since 2016 Noren has played ten times in either Opens, Scottish Opens or Dunhill Links and only twice been out of the top 20 during that time, with landing the victory here in Scotland seven years ago. That's a very impressive record for someone looking to put themselves back into the Ryder Cup conversation and this holds a huge chance to put himself back on the map.
1.5pt each-way A.Noren 80/1 (1/6 12) Coral
Cameron Davis at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Australians have long since been fine links exponents and one of the most promising youngsters from that part of the world worth siding with this week is Cameron Davis. Davis has struggled somewhat since his tremendous final-round performance at the USPGA that saw him earn a top-five finish. A combination of poor driving and poor irons have plagued him since but recent evidence suggests he may be coming out of that slump. His driving improved at the Travelers only to be let down by the putter whilst his irons last time out at the Rocket Mortgage was his best display on approach since the Arnold Palmer back in 2021.
His only jaunt to the Open back in 2018 saw him land a top-40 finish and having not yet qualified will be trying his best to get into those three spots left at the Renaissance this week. Plenty to play for and a powerful hitter who can show his credentials on links similar to many of his fellow countrymen who have gone before.
1pt each-way C.Davis 100/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, Paddypower, WilliamHill
Eddie Pepperell at 400/1 (Eight Places)
Himmerland was far from a straightforward test last week and despite a poor effort there and now stepping up in grade tremendously I believe Eddie Pepperell is worth chancing at 400/1. 9th here back in 2020, Pepperell often puts his best foot forward on links tests and I believe the Renaissance is a better fit than Himmerland as there is even less of a reliance on length off the tee here.
Pepperell struggles in that department being one of the shortest on tour but often makes up for it with a stellar approach game. That was missing last week but it certainly wasn't the week previous and I think we can often take Pepperell's judgement on his game with a pinch of salt. It can turn at any given moment and conditions last week certainly weren't the easiest on the opening couple of days. This more linksy test should suit the Englishman and although winning is a pipedream in a field of this quality, his record on these courses even in strong fields is fairly decent.
0.75pt each-way E.Pepperell 400/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill
Jordan Smith (Eight Places)
I'll chance another fancied runner from last week in the shape of Jordan Smith whose iron play went missing last week but very rarely throws in two weeks on the trot with those kinds of numbers. Smith has a top five finish in the Dunhill Links to his name back in 2019 and despite some other poor results on similar tests it pays to look deeper. He has gained stacks on the field off the tee and on approach in these links tests and continually has failed to deliver on the greens.
We gamble here this week that he manages to hole some putts, but rarely do we get Smith at these kinds of odds so now it appears worth the risk. Hitting greens here alone doesn't usually separate yourself from the field, but with some poor weather forecast at the weekend his ability to hit the right parts of the greens could result in him making more gains than usual with the irons. It's a tall order in this field, but he's certainly capable should he have one good week with the putter.
0.75pt each-way J.Smith 140/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
