Niall Lyons has five tips for the Open Championship 2023 at Royal Liverpool.
The Open Championship 2023
Thanks to the talent of Sam Harrop chimes of the McCartney penned Mull of Kintyre were in my head last Sunday as Bob was so nearly crowned Scottish Champion and what an hors d'ouevre the Renaissance served up ahead of this years final major in the hometown of the Beatles.
McIlroy outstayed his rivals in the final couple of furlongs to land an overdue victory and has quite rightly shortened in the market ahead of his Scouse defence of the title he won here back in 2014. I pointed out plenty of clues last week as your first point of call for deciphering this event with my Open trends piece.
Open Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
I didn't delve much into the course as that's best placed for this article and it looks like Hoylake could be a brute in terms of length. The final nine holes here combine for the longest back nine in Open history.
Length off the tee certainly isn't a prerequisite looking at Open Champions down the years but there is certainly an argument that it could play pivotal this week and we may have a bomber dominated leaderboard.
There is trouble on this course though, none more so evident than on the 3rd hole where the internal out of bounds will no doubt suck in plenty of balls across the four days.
Tommy Fleetwood sits around the 20/1 mark now and for my money that is extremely short. The Englishman has failed to deliver the goods down the back nine on the PGA Tour on numerous occasions now and although that's not a huge criticism to be aimed at him, it certainly remains up for debate that he should be so short for a major.
Rickie Fowler has lit up the tour once again in 2023 and looks a much better proposition at the same price than Fleetwood, but I remain unconvinced he should be this short in this type of test. Hatton arguably has better credentials here than those pair and the 25/1 out there about him may prove the best of the three.
Once again though, for some of the names around him in the market and the magnitude of the event I don't quite see him this short. Schauffele is interesting in that price range given his consistency but he is finding it difficult to turn these top 20s in Majors into winning chances and for that reason the reward doesn't seem big enough around the 25/1 mark.
Scottie Scheffler at 8/1 (Eight Places)
All this draws a conclusion for me that the value lies at the top of the market and that's how I'll play it despite knowing it will prove unpopular among some punters. McIlroy will prove hard to beat if he putts well throughout the week, but one who that statement can be equally attached to is Scottie Scheffler, and he's my top selection.
He blitzed the ball striking element of the game once again last week ranking 3rd off the tee and 4th on approach but once again it was his putting that was the issue ranking 63rd of the 77 that made the cut. That was still good enough for 3rd place and his 7th top five finish on the spin. The figures we are seeing off the tee and on approach is Tiger like and if he had shown any sort of form with the putter we'd be looking at some record breaking wins from the world number one.
You'd be making money off him backing each way in the majors, but maybe I count myself slightly lucky not to have backed him yet since his Masters win, and the laws of average may just go my way at the right time. Even average putting weeks see him mixing at the very top of the leaderboard and he'll be working extremely hard to unlock this final piece of the jigsaw.
Hoylake sets up perfectly for him and his distance and accuracy from the tee should be a huge advantage on the tougher holes. A win at Sawgrass looks good on the CV with this test presenting some really volatile holes. 2nd and 3rd in his last two Major Championships I don't think his tally will remain at one for much longer.
4pts each-way S.Scheffler 8/1 (8 Places)
Jon Rahm at 14/1 (Eight Places)
This may prove slightly unpopular among punters but I'm going with a two pronged attack towards the top of the market with a view that a little too much respect is being given to a handful in behind. Would I rather back Rahm at 12/1 or the likes of Fleetwood/Fowler around 22s? The answer is simple, I'll go for the guy who has landed two wins in his last nine major attempts.
Rahm entered the Masters slightly unpopular having withdrawn from the Players mid tournament and having an uncharacteristic early exit at the Match Play. Since his Masters win he has had a runner up finish in Mexico, a top 20 at the Memorial and 10th place at LACC in the US Open. His 16th placed effort at Muirfield Village could have been so much better had he not ranked near last in the putting statistics for the week having ranked 2nd with his irons.
The missed cut at the Travelers is of little concern as he has failed to break the top 20 there in four attempts. He has prepared for this Open by skipping a trip to Scotland and instead taking in some Irish Links at Ballybunnion and following the gruelling conditions at the Renaissance I'd argue Rahm's choice may be the better one. He has produced a ball striking clinic on the PGA Tour all season long resulting in four tournament wins in the highest quality fields.
His credentials here are well known having won twice on Irish links and a 3rd place finish at Royal St George's a couple of years ago. McIlroy and Woods both won here with excellent long games and with the driver and iron play of the top three in the market I find it difficult to see this title going elsewhere.
4pts each-way J.Rahm 14/1 (8 places) StarSports
Keegan Bradley at 110/1 (Eight Places)
One at bigger prices which looks a no brainer to get involved with is Keegan Bradley. Numerous golfers in the Autumn of their career have won this fine event and Bradley has enough experienced banked to make a go at this if the weather stays reasonably fine. In horrible weather in May of 2022 he came close to winning the Wells Fargo being edged out by Max Homa so even if rain does arrive I fancy he can cope.
Bradley has two PGA Tour victories in his last 21 starts with the latest of these coming just three weeks ago at the Travelers. Spieth and Molinari showed winning form heading into this before winning as well as numerous others down the years so there is certainly evidence to suggest Bradley is coming here under the radar of the bookmakers at triple figure prices.
His Open form is a slight concern but it's worth noting he has three top 20s in nine appearances, one being here at Hoylake back in 2014. That isn't a bad record for someone who wouldn't consider this his ideal test and he could join the likes of Molinari, Lowry, McIlroy, Mickelson, Els, Oosthuizen and Cink in winning the Open having missed the cut the previous year.
1pt each-way K.Bradley 110/1 (8 places) Skybet, Bet365, 888Sport
Corey Conners at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Another winner on the PGA Tour this season priced at triple figures who I'm happy to include in the staking plan is Corey Conners. Elite ball strikers notoriously do well at Open Championships and if the weather does get challenging on any particular day then Conners has the class to deal with it.
The Canadian managed a top 20 finish last week in Scotland, helped by a final round of 66 in the worst conditions of the week which was only beaten by the unlucky runner up Bob MacIntyre. Conners has recent experience in the heat of battle also in the final couple of groups over the weekend at the PGA in May. Add three top 10s at the Masters and we have someone who is well versed in playing well in Major Championships.
He has finished 28th and 15th in his last two Open Championships and arrives here having won his second Texas Open earlier in the year, an event notorious with windy conditions. He ranked 4th in SG approach at the Travelers and ranked 8th in SG off the tee last week in Scotland. Another who certainly has the ability to win an event of this magnitude and recent PGA Tour winners at triple figure prices must be closely watched.
1pt each-way C.Conners 100/1 (8 places) Skybet
Jordan Smith at 250/1 (Eight Places)
I'll have a small bet on Jordan Smith who continues to impress with his ball striking figures and at more than 10 times the price of Fleetwood and Hatton looks a much more value play with the place terms available. The Englishman won in Portugal last October in an event that is synonymous with good wind players.
A solid season has followed with some eye catching ball striking efforts, none more so than when ranking 3rd in strokes gained approach at the US Open in Los Angeles. His final round of 4 under par there was only beaten by three others and saw him finish in 20th spot. That adds to his 9th place at the PGA in 2017 which means he has one top 10 and one top 20 in seven major appearances.
Last week in Scotland he ranked 18th on approach once again highlighting how capable he is in stronger fields. There's no doubt the putter will need to improve if he wants another solid finish, but at the prices available it looks a bit of a bargain to risk.
0.75pt each-way J.Smith 250/1 (8 places) Bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill
