Farmers Insurance Open 2024

The action heats up now on the PGA Tour as we head to some iconic venues in the next month or two with the first of them being in San Diego for the Farmers. Jon Rahm has brought this place to its knees in recent years, as well as himself when proposing to his future wife back in 2018.

His presence here will be missed in terms of his love for the place, but for golf fans it's all about the action and if there's a packed leaderboard on Sunday afternoon then Rahm's absence will be quickly forgotten.

The North course is played once during the first two rounds with the remaining three rounds taking place on the much tougher South Course. Luke List finally won on the PGA tour here back in 2022 but bar a couple of others we have a fine calibre of winner here and you normally need to look to a player who has won before in fields of this quality. 

Farmers Insurance Open Tips:

  • 2.5pts each-way T.Finau  25/1  (1/5 8) Sky Bet
  • 2.5pts each-way J.Day  28/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power
  • 1.25pts each-way S.Lowry  66/1  (1/5 8) Sky Bet
  • 1pt each-way B.Horschel  90/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power
  • 0.75pt each-way N.Hardy  225/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power

 

The South Course is a brute at nearly 7800 yards long and clearly length off the tee helps in trying to tame the course, but the stats down the years tell us it is certainly not a pre requisite. Below I have listed the stats of the top five and ties each of the last three years.

Farmers 2023
Player Pos OTT APP ATG T2G PUTT DD DA GIR SCR
Homa 1 31 1 24 1 9 55 9 3 14
Bradley 2 32 10 10 6 1 48 16 32 3
Morikawa 3 3 3 48 2 27 56 1 2 51
Im 4 53 2 16 5 6 58 32 7 35
Ryder 4 26 12 36 11 23 50 9 1 6
Theegala 4 48 4 14 4 35 28 32 13 25

 

Farmers 2022
Player Pos OTT APP ATG T2G PUTT DD DA GIR SCR
List 1 21 4 32 5 8 12 44 11 6
Zalatoris 2 8 1 17 1 64 30 62 2 1
Day 3 24 38 31 29 7 28 37 21 25
Rahm 3 2 19 71 22 14 3 29 2 78
Tringale 3 48 33 7 18 25 74 23 21 17

 

Farmers 2021
Player Pos OTT APP ATG T2G PUTT DD DA GIR SCR
Reed 1 31 39 1 12 10 51 9 63 6
Finau 2 43 18 12 13 36 21 71 21 20
Hovland 2 16 5 50 7 15 15 5 6 71
Norlander 2 3 16 5 2 56 40 7 6 8
Palmer 2 29 24 73 33 2 20 25 17 1
Schauffele 2 30 7 42 11 8 11 34 32 2

 

Of the six who made the frame last year only one broke into the top 30 in Driving Distance for the week. In 2022 List ranked 12th in that department but rankings of 30,28 and 74 made up three of the other top five. Reed won the previous year ranking 51st in driving distance so it is certainly no necessity to be one of the longest in the field.

We can clearly see though that a solid tee to green game is needed mostly made of up approach play and work around the greens. There are a few ways to skin this feline though and it's difficult to rule out many simply by analysing their stats. In Reed's win for instance a poor enough week with the irons was saved by a tremendous short game. A West Coast trait is often Poa Annua greens and they feature once again at Torrey Pines.

This often gives Californian's an advantage having grown up on these surfaces and the odd time it'll lend itself to those who struggle on the greens as it's a shade more volatile than Bermuda. None more so was this evident than when Luke List  in won in 2022 having struggled all his career with the putter then producing one of his best efforts on the greens in many years. 

Tony Finau at 25/1 (Eight Places)

With Rahm and Scheffler missing as well as a handful of others this represents a huge chance for the market leaders to get off the mark this term.

There is no doubting the quality of champion here down the years and although this is a shade weaker than previous renewals which will increase the chances of an outsider taking home the spoils, I still expect the winner to be an experienced sort who has won on a Major type course in a strong field. Homa and Schauffele appeal a fair bit more than Cantlay this week but at x2.5 the price of the favourites there a couple who shade it, starting with Tony Finau.

He undoubtedly had his head turned by the other tour but chose to stay where he was and he can reap the rewards on a course that he has fared very well on previously. He has only missed one cut here in nine appearances and although it's taking a lot for him to get over the line here, he could overcome that just like he did his winless streak after Puerto Rico.

Four top 6 finishes is an impressive result and rounds of 68-67-67-67 last week looks great preparation for a tougher test. Approach play is key around here and he is one of the most consistent performers in that department down the years. Finau has had numerous close calls in this state and has shown on many occasions he can handle the Poa Annua putting surfaces.

He shook off some rust in Hawaii then improved a fair deal in the desert last week, and I'd be surprised should he not find another solid effort here on a course he's very comfortable on.

Tony Finau - 2.5pts e/w @ 25/1

Jason Day at 28/1 (Eight Places)

Hovland and Scheffler skipping this with a busy few weeks ahead means the course specialists can capitalise and I'm happy to take the three jollies on once again with another in the same price bracket in the shape of Jason Day. Like Finau, Day has a great record here and some of his best career efforts have arrived at this venue.

Two victories as well as another five top 10s here mean he has had much more success than my first pick here, and he too has warmed up in fair fashion. He played well through the bag at Kapalua finishing 10th there then rounds of 68-66-68-68 last week meaning he trudged along in mid pack for the most part, but certainly not disgraced.

I would have expected the Aussie to turn up here at the same price had either Scheffler, Hovland or both of them turned up this week so I'd comfortably have him slotted in as 5th fav. I'm a huge fan of the Swede, but Aberg's lack of experience around this layout could tell, and he hasn't exactly kicked off 2024 in the same form than what he did late in 2023. Overall it makes Day and Finau very backable from the top end of the market.

Jason Day - 2.5pts e/w @ 28/1

Shane Lowry at 66/1 (Eight Places)

Min Woo Lee has quite rightfully taken a much more prominent place in the market these days and it'd be no surprise to see him win on the PGA Tour soon. As I mentioned there is more than one way to win around here, but I'd be sceptical until we see a consistent run with his iron play. It's the only missing piece of the jigsaw and shoud it come together he'll be a tough one to beat.

At double his odds though I prefer Shane Lowry who shot 12 under last week through three rounds to miss the cut on the number and an extra day preparation here may prove beneficial. Lowry finished 7th here in 2015 and 13th the following year but hasn't turned up since his missed cut back in 2018. That somewhat surprises me but he looks a little underestimated in the market.  

When Reed won around here it was his short game that did the talking and on his day Lowry is as good as anyone around the greens. What he has over Reed is his ability to go on great runs with his iron play and generally what tips the scales either way is whether or not his putter behaves. 66/1 looks too big for Lowry to capitalise and he's in that bracket having won events of higher quality than this with a Major and a WGC. 

Shane Lowry - 1.25pts e/w @ 66/1

Billy Horschel at 90/1 (Eight Places)

Billy Horschel was another who missed the cut last week, one shot further back than Lowry but with a second round of 68 and a third round of 65 looked to have overcome a lacklustre opening day. Prior to that a top 20 at Waialae was a fair start to the year playing reasonably well in all departments, especially with the putter. Horschel has made the top 20 in six of his last nine events and with three top 11 finishes here down the years looks worth chancing at 80/1 or bigger.

Amongst his victories are the Memorial, a WGC, the BMW PGA and the Tour Championship. It's a strong CV and the winners here historically have similar under their belt. Having visibly struggled with his game throughout the first half of 2023 he really did get it together and I'm surprised the likes of Jaeger, Fox and Mitchell are priced shorter than Horschel. He may lack a little power off the tee for the South Course, but he can certainly make up for it in other areas.

Billy Horschel - 1pt e/w @ 90/1

Nick Hardy at 225/1 (Eight Places)

Nick Hardy looks one of those at triple figures worth chancing at triple figures having started the year quite strongly with his long game. His ball striking was tremendous at Kapalua only to be let down by a mis firing short game. That changed the following week at Waialae gaining shots in all departments of the game throughout the week and shooting four rounds in the 60s.

He already has a win bagged on tour at the Zurich teams event alongside Davis Riley but I see the tougher assignments suiting him more. Two top 20s in the US Open suggests he can cope with the longer championship golf courses and with one of those top 20s being at LA Country Club he can take confidence from that after a solid but under the radar run at the Sony.

Nick Hardy - 0.75pts e/w @ 225/1