Niall Lyons has five tips for the Pebble Beach Pro Am in California.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
In the second of eight designated events on the schedule the top 50 from the previous years FedEx Cup rankings qualify with around 30 more places available through other qualifying criteria.
As a result we will have the strongest field assembled for this event and three of the top four in the world in the shape of Scheffler, Hovland and McIlroy have committed to teeing it up on one of the most famous venues on the planet.
In a change to the format this year we'll see just one round played on Spyglass Hill and the other three taking place on Pebble Beach. That means the Monterey Peninsula golf course is removed from the schedule and this is welcome from a punting point of view as the more stability we have and the more golf that is played on a venue we know plenty about, the better.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips:
- 2.5pts each-way J.Spieth 20/1 (1/5 6) Sky Bet, Unibet
- 2.5pts each-way M.Homa 20/1 (1/5 7) William Hill
- 1pt each-way B.An 60/1 (1/5 7) William Hill
- 1pt each-way JT Poston 60/1 (1/5 7) William Hill
- 0.75pt each-way L.Hodges 300/1 (1/5 10) Coral 10 place market
Profile of winners - First of all course form holds up very well here. Snedeker (twice), Mickelson (4 times), Dustin Johnson (twice), Davis Love (twice) are a handful of golfers with multiple wins at Pebble since the turn of the century. Numerous others have contended on a regular basis. Former Open winner Mark O'Meara won five times here at Pebble Beach.
Woods, Mickelson and Spieth have joined that party since in winning the Open and this and it stands to reason that form by the sea is often an advantage heading into this event. Justin Rose was the first European winner of this event dating all the way back to the 1930s and only him, Brett Ogle, Vijay Singh and Nick Taylor have wrestled it off the Americans in the last 60+ years.
Past Champions & Winning Score
- 2023 - Justin Rose (-18)
- 2022 - Tom Hoge (-19)
- 2021 - D.Berger (-18)
- 2020 - N.Taylor (-19)
- 2019 - P.Mickelson (-19)
Winners/Contenders Stats
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023
| Player | Position | OTT | APP | ATG | T2G | Putt | DD | DA | GIR | SCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose | 1 | 57 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 44 | 34 | 4 |
| Todd | 2 | 25 | 38 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 62 | 5 | 75 | 2 |
| Wu | 2 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 8 | 24 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 47 |
| Malnati | 4 | 64 | 5 | 60 | 26 | 7 | 43 | 74 | 15 | 19 |
| McCarthy | 4 | 24 | 26 | 42 | 25 | 2 | 57 | 44 | 54 | 2 |
| Mitchell | 4 | 7 | 30 | 22 | 12 | 28 | 15 | 10 | 28 | 6 |
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022
| Player | Position | OTT | APP | ATG | T2G | Putt | DD | DA | GIR | SCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoge | 1 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 35 | 7 | 8 |
| Spieth | 2 | 10 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 43 | 11 | 16 |
| Hossler | 3 | 26 | 17 | 48 | 27 | 5 | 13 | 63 | 30 | 17 |
| Cantlay | 4 | 11 | 59 | 7 | 39 | 25 | 17 | 35 | 52 | 8 |
| Merritt | 4 | 29 | 2 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 43 | 7 | 31 |
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2021
| Player | Position | OTT | APP | ATG | T2G | Putt | DD | DA | GIR | SCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berger | 1 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 1 |
| Mcnealy | 2 | 4 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Cantlay | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 15 |
| Spieth | 3 | 37 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 42 | 10 | 57 | 16 | 46 |
| Casey | 5 | 22 | 31 | 8 | 17 | 10 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 10 |
| Lashley | 5 | 12 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 36 | 17 |
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2020
| Player | Position | OTT | APP | ATG | T2G | Putt | DD | DA | GIR | SCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor | 1 | 54 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 2 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 30 |
| Streelman | 2 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 14 | 2 | 65 |
| Mickelson | 3 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 33 | 50 | 8 |
| Day | 4 | 17 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 15 |
| Berger | 5 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 3 | 31 | 7 |
| Jones | 5 | 22 | 31 | 21 | 25 | 14 | 55 | 51 | 31 | 26 |
| Mcnealy | 5 | 45 | 23 | 28 | 27 | 8 | 56 | 56 | 23 | 3 |
| Schwartzel | 5 | 23 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 11 | 63 | 50 | 8 |
Over the coming days it'll be useful to study the weather and just how much the cold or the wind will affect proceedings. That being said, the Americans flourish here and a glance to those who have form in the Open may prove beneficial. The strokes gained stats are from Pebble Beach only down the years and that's where we focus on.
From the tables above it's clear Greens In Regulation plays a huge part as Pebble has some of the smallest targets on tour. Approach play is important whilst what you do off the tee be it in terms of distance or accuracy doesn't look to matter an awful lot.
It's what you do after the tee shot that is of extreme importance here and with the inevitable missed greens we'll see scrambling play its part over the days at Pebble.
The wind, rain and the cold that looks set to batter Pebble Beach over the coming days won't suit the tournament favourites and it looks to be a week to take them on. Scheffler's swing doesn't quite look as grounded playing in wet conditions and his feet shuffling causes him to slip the odd time. There will be better weeks to play the world number one and he is easily passed over.
McIlroy won't be overly suited either and it remains to be seen if there any ill effects from Hovland's change of coach in recent times. I don't consider a missed cut to be all that important at a tough Torrey Pines last week, and Morikawa out to 22/1 looks very backable as a result. He has only made the trip to Pebble once before and like many before him may not have fancied the format.
Overall though it's a much more serious tournament this week and with less celebrities making the headlines this week it'll be easier for the likes of Morikawa. On his day I believe him to be the premier approach player in the world and around Pebble this is of extreme importance. Laser like approach shots are needed and he is the man to deal with it.
He was the best iron player in the field at the Sentry and he's rarely too far away from the top end of this statistic. Schauffele looks another who could land an overdue victory but I slightly favour course form over everything here and their lack of experience here could tell compared to others around them in the market.
Jordan Spieth at 20/1 (Six Places)
This leaves me with Jordan Spieth being the best bet of the week around the 20/1 mark. He has been outside the top 25 just twice in 11 appearances here and having skipped the battle at Torrey Pines he looks set to capture his second title here. His sole win here came back in 2017 and he has gone close since on a couple of occasions to adding to that tally.
He was the best putter in the field at the Sentry at the start of the month and a slightly better performance with the irons would have had him winning there. It bodes well for him though as we know when he starts to putt well he is a hard man to beat.
Scheffler, McIlroy, Hovland and Schauffele only have five appearances here between them so their lack of tournament golf could prove crucial. It opens the door for the others and Spieth can take full advantage and land another victory at a place he loves.
2.5pts each-way J.Spieth 20/1 (1/5 6) Sky Bet, Unibet
Max Homa at 20/1 (Seven Places)
Morikawa was tough to leave off the list this week as I believe Pebble is perfect for him. However, with Cantlay and Homa having a few good finishes here they just slightly edged it. Cantlay failed to fire after an opening 65 last week eventually finishing 56th and for that reason Max Homa is preferred.
The Farmers, The Genesis and the Fortinet (twice) make up four of his wins in California and winning at Pebble Beach will be next on his list as it's not beyond the realms the possibility he completes victories in all Californian events in his career.
I wouldn't necessarily put Coastal golf as his strongpoint but with wet conditions here throughout the week it's worth looking back to his victory at Potomac back in 2022 where he beat the likes of Young, Fitzpatrick and Bradley when overcoming tough, rainy conditions.
Homa is winning at a fair lick and with three top 15 finishes from his last three efforts here must be strongly considered to tick off another California victory. Schauffele, Cantlay, Spieth, Morikawa and Homa all look backable this week given how conditions may not suit the three market leaders but Spieth and Homa just shade it both at 20/1.
2.5pts each-way M.Homa 20/1 (1/5 7) William Hill
Byeong Hun An at 60/1 (Seven Places)
Byeong Hun An has become very vocal on Twitter of late but it's his golf that's doing the real talking with a big improvement in the last number of months.
An has become one of the longest hitters on tour now and from someone who hit it more or less average off the tee distance wise just two or three years ago it is a big transformation.
That improvement in distance was inevitably going to translate to better results and we've seen that since July last year. He now has four top 4 finishes in his last seven events with three of those coming by the Coast. 3rd in the Scottish Open in July was backed up the following week with this best finish in an Open Championship in nine tries finishing 23rd. Runner up at the Wyndham in August then kicking off this season with 4th at Kapalua and 2nd at Waialae means he is one of the form players in the field.
He has plenty of ability in these conditions and the slower greens should help someone who has had struggles with the putter before, even though he looks to be overcoming that. He was 37th on debut here last year and should benefit from three rounds at Pebble this year.
1pt each-way B.An 60/1 (1/5 7) William Hill
J.T Poston at 60/1 (Seven Places)
Someone who doesn't keep up with the Ben An's of this world off the tee is JT Poston but Pebble is one of the shortest courses on tour and instead focus must turn to approach play and scrambling. JT Poston is putting together a tremendous run of figures dating back six months and Pebble Beach comes at the perfect time despite not having played here since 2018.
Poston's two victories have come at Sedgefield and Deere Run, two tracks where the shorter hitters prevail and where wedge play is key. Small greens suit Poston and this is where he can really separate himself from the rest. He has only twice been outside the top 25 in his last twelve events with seven top 10s posted during that period.
All departments of his game are in fine working order and with another three top 10s posted at Harbour Town he has the perfect profile for this event. He is a much improved golfer since 2018 and warrants plenty of respect in the market this week.
1pt each-way JT Poston 60/1 (1/5 7) William Hill
Lee Hodges at 300/1 (Ten Places)
It seems foolish not have a huge number on the staking plan these days with the way the last few weeks have gone and I'm happy to take a flyer on Lee Hodges, one of the outsiders in the entire field.
Hodges has shown plenty in a short career to date to suggest he could make the frame here and he goes under the radar having made a run at the cut late last week at Torrey.
An opening 68 at the North course was all undone when he dropped four shots in the space of three holes on his opening nine on the South. However needing to go four under his final four holes he nearly managed it making birdies at the 6th, 7th, 8th then missing an 11 footer on the 9th to make the weekend.
A winner last July by seven shots at Twin Cities was a hugely impressive effort, whilst 12th in the Scottish Open and 14th at the Honda suggest he is fine with any wind that comes his way this week. It may be beyond him to win in a field of this magnitude, but if there's anything to be learned from the last few weeks is that none of these golfers can be underestimated.
0.75pt each-way L.Hodges 300/1 (1/5 10) Coral 10 place market
