Waste Management Phoenix Open Tips, Preview, Betting Odds & Tee Times

Scheffler, Koepka and Matsuyama have shared six of the last nine renewals of this event. With Simpson winning in 2020 that makes eight of the last nine winners here having won a major either before or after their victory at Phoenix.

The previous nine renewals tell somewhat of a different story in that regard, but maybe the increased intensity here with the escalation of the atmosphere at the 16th and around the course it takes a different type of character to win around here now.

TPC Scottsdale is second only to Augusta National in terms of how course history impacts future results, therefore looking to past form on this track often helps to narrow the field.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Tips:

• 2.5pts each-way J.Spieth  16/1  (1/5 8) Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill
• 2pts each-way M.Fitzpatrick  33/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power
• 1.5pts each-way S.Theegala  33/1  (1/5 8) Sky Bet, Wlliam Hill
• 1pt each-way S.Lowry  70/1  (1/5 8)  888sport
• 0.75pt each-way G.Murray  300/1  (1/5 8)  Sky Bet, Paddy Power

Scheffler finished 7th before winning here two years on the spin. Koepka was 3rd the year after winning. Fowler had two runner ups here before winning in 2019. As ever when playing in the desert a nod to form at similar events such as the American Express or Shriners is wise. 

Winners/Contenders Stats

Only one player has made the top 5 here in the last two years having finished outside the top 25 in strokes gained off the tee for the week. The winners in the table above have ranked 26th, 8th, 6th and 44th in driving distance so although not necessary it surely helps to hit the ball far at Scottsdale.

There is no doubting the key part of the game here though and that's approach play and greens in regulation. Scheffler ranked 1st and 3rd in those departments when winning last year whilst the year before although he ranked 55th on approach, he still finished 11th in GIR. His sub standard approach play was fixed with the putter ranking 2nd in the field that week.

Koepka ranked 2nd and 1st in approach/GIR, whilst Simpson ranked 1st and 6th. It's a ball strikers golf course and the putting surfaces are as smooth and blemish free as they come. 

Jordan Spieth at 16/1 (Eight Places)

I may be glutton for punishment in selecting Jordan Spieth once again but here we are. Now into his 30s Spieth will be hoping for similar as to what happened whenever he entered his early 20s. He continues to have plenty of near misses but his ball striking remains in remarkable shape and once again it was the putter that hindered him at Pebble Beach.

One of the worst putters in the field it was another desperate watch but it's worth noting that plenty of his good efforts here at this course have been whilst performing around average on the greens. He was around average both times when finishing inside the top ten in 2015 and 2017.

In 2021 when finishing 4th he putted much better but last year he ranked 51st on the greens when finishing 6th. It's another sign of what he is capable of if he manages a good week with the putter.

His iron here down the years has been exceptional and it's a course that really suits his eye and style. These greens here are impeccable usually and this is surely the week where he manages to hole a number of putts and end the 18 month win drought.

2.5pts each-way J.Spieth  16/1  (1/5 8) Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill

Matt Fitzpatrick at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Taylor Moore finished 14th on debut here last year and could go well at a big price, although if Scheffler fires here there will not be many who are able to beat him. I'll opt for one who'd have a small chance if that scenario plays out in the shape of Matt Fitzpatrick. The Englishman sits at 33/1 across the board for the US Open in just four months time and you won't find many places bigger than 40/1 for any of the big four.

The players missing from those fields this week include Rahm, McIlroy, Hovland, Koepka, Cantlay, Schauffele, Morikawa, Smith and Aberg yet we see 33/1 dangled about the 2022 US Open Champion. On his debut here he shot 70-68-67-67 to finish 10th then finished with a 65 last year to finish 29th after an ordinary start.

That's four from 8 rounds here between 65 and 68 so he certainly has the ability to score here. He was in good position lying 10th at halfway last week at Pebble before misfiring in round 3 shooting a 76. Nevertheless, Fitzpatrick is one of the elite players in the game and 33/1 is a fair price for him to land his third victory in the space of ten months. 

2pts each-way M.Fitzpatrick  33/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power

Sahith Theegala at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Sungjae Im could certainly make his presence on the leaderboard but his winless run dates back to October 2021 on the main tours and we never quite get a big enough price to get involved. Sahith Theegala at a bigger price is much more interesting and in my opinion has a much higher ceiling than the aforementioned Im.

Theegala fits the bill here being an excellent ball striker and he has the added bonus of regularly being hot with the putter. He started the year off in fine style with a runner up in Hawaii being a shade unlucky to bump into an unbelievable effort by Chris Kirk. A top 20 at Pebble last week was another fair week but TPC Scottsdale suits much better.

We know prior form is a big indicator to future performance here and Theegala went very close to winning here on debut finishing 3rd in 2022. A recent winner on tour at the Fortinet in September renders his higher price much more backable than a couple in front of him in the market.

1.5pts each-way S.Theegala  33/1  (1/5 8) Sky Bet, Wlliam Hill

Shane Lowry at 70/1 (Eight Places)

Tom Kim is certainly someone who could win a Major soon and join the likes of Koepka, Matsuyama and Simpson like I mentioned above, and his desert form suggests he could be a big runner here also. His putter is causing him problems this year to date and although it did improve a little at Pebble last week we unfortunately haven't seen too much of a drift in his price after these down the field efforts, and for that reason he is passed over.

Bhatia is another who could have the perfect game for here but course experience is preferred and this is his first trip around the track. Shane Lowry on the other hand has four previous efforts here with his best being 6th on debut back in 2016 and he is one who has the class with his approach play to make the requisite scores to contend.

He led here after day one in 2016 and the following year he managed a top 20. His putter misbehaved at the American Express in mid January but things were a shade better at Torrey Pines whilst posting a 25th placed finish.

The Irishman can really hit form with his irons and they were in good nick in San Diego so a good putting week could really tip things in his favour and anything around 66/1 or better for the 2019 Open Champion looks worth the risk.

1pt each-way S.Lowry  70/1  (1/5 8)  888sport

Grayson Murray at 300/1 (Eight Places)

I can't help being tempted by the 300/1+ available for recent winner on tour Grayson Murray. Murray has had plenty of struggles during his career both on and off the golf course but 2023 was a turning point re-dedicating himself to the game and as a result winning twice on the Korn Ferry Tour.

On his reappearance in 2024 he won first time out with a hugely impressive victory at the Sony Open overcoming Keegan Bradley and Ben An in a playoff. His record here isn't much to write home about but he has made five from five cuts at Scottsdale and he arrives here a much improved golfer than those years having last played here in 2021.

Murray is an aggressive golfer who can take advantage of the par 5s and the driveable par 4s here. For someone with a PGA Tour victory and two KFT wins in the last 9 months the price is interesting to say the least, especially for someone who attended college nearby. 

0.75pt each-way G.Murray  300/1  (1/5 8)  Sky Bet, Paddy Power