Masters Odds 2024: Tips, Betting Trends & Likeliest First Time Winner

It's only a few weeks to go until Augusta takes centre stage and as ever there are already pointers as to who may be the next Champion and slip on the world's most coveted Blazer. 

In the article below I'll try my best to figure out what's important to have in the locker before heading to the first Major of the year and I'll carve through previous results and trends to find out who may be the next first time Major winner at the Masters.

Record of former Masters winners

First of all a glance at previous winners is worthwhile. Previous form at the Masters is a proven trend over time, however winning form tells a different story. 

Past winners of this event down the last decade have struggled to make an impact thereafter and it could be a reason to oppose last year’s winner Jon Rahm. 

The Spaniard will have a lot to deal with in terms of the media obligations and the Champions dinner, and history isn't on his side. Only two of the last 10 winners have managed a top 10 the year after.

If you take out Jordan Spieth who has a great record here, the last 10 winners have only managed two top fives between them after their win in 43 tries. The list of previous champions may prove fruitful to steer clear from given this trend.

Major 'Base Camping'

From the last 15 Majors we can see from the table below that only two had not posted a previous top five in one of the big four. One of those was Morikawa who was competing in only his second Major when winning the 2020 PGA. 

It seems being in contention in a Major Championship is a pre-requisite if you want to win one. Eight of the last 15 Major winners also posted a top 10 in the previous Major.

Attention turns to the golfers who have yet to win a Major and whether they have done enough previously to hit the trends highlighted above. 

With the world rankings slightly askew now and questionable as to their merit, I've listed below the top 20 Non Major winners in order of their rankings on Data Golf. 

Masters Tips: Who's the likeliest first time Major winner at the Masters?

A few outsiders stand out in the table above. Russell Henley could kick on from his 4th place last year and has enough experience in the bank to get over the line in a Major. 

Harris English is another in the same bracket whilst Ludvig Aberg could finally be the man to put an end to the recent debutant record at Augusta. 

Remember eight of the last 15 Major winners posted a top 10 in the Major directly prior, while only two hadn't managed a previous top five. Of the non-major winners who finished in the top 10 at Royal Liverpool, only two have managed a top five in Majors - Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young. 

The important thing to mention here is that both are still looking for their first PGA Tour victory. Young was the trends pick last year and finished 7th so we have to favour Fleetwood who has managed a victory this year in Dubai, more importantly overcoming Rory McIlroy in the process. 

That was something Young couldn't do when leading heading into the final day of the Dubai Desert Classic in January with Rory overcoming a four shot deficit there on the final day. Fleetwood has 'base camped' with two runner ups in Majors before, and with this previous top 20 at Augusta and 10th place at Royal Liverpool, he looks the most likely first time winner of the 2024 Masters.