Niall Lyons has six selections for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, Surrey, England.
BMW PGA Championship
The BMW PGA Championship will, as usual, be held at Wentworth in Surrey, England.
Non Ryder Cup years inevitably mean that the field isn't quite as impressive as the previous year but that doesn't take away from the spectacle that this event is.
Last year we had the full European Ryder Cup team in appearance and it was a riveting event from start to finish. Kiwi Ryan Fox was the first two complete the jigsaw with Hatton blowing a big chance and Ludvig Aberg also spurning a big opportunity.
There isn't an awful lot of room off the tee here but driving accuracy has been one of the least important statistics in recent years.
Instead driving distance has come to the fore and you can rest assured the contenders will be high up the list in the tee to green statistic.
Horschel and Lowry both topped that stat when winning whilst Fox ranked 9th. A strong effort from the tee aligned with a solid approach game will see you score around here.
Ball striking is key but I'd certainly favour the longer hitters here at Wentworth nowadays.
Below is a look at the stats of some of the top performers in the past three editions of this tournament.
BMW PGA Championship Tips
- 3pts WIN S.Lowry 16/1 (Betfred)
- 1pt each-way L.Canter 60/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way B.Wiesberger 66/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
- 1pt each-way T.McKibbin 70/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way T.Detry 45/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 0.5pt each-way A.Otaegui 225/1 (1/4 5) Betfred
William Hill
- Solid in-play betting service
- Cash-in option to help increase profitability
- Excellent reputation within the UK betting-industry
Shane Lowry 16/1 (Win)
The last seven winners of this fine event had been ploughing their trade on the PGA Tour that season prior to winning here in Surrey.
The market reflects that with the large majority of the top 20 in the betting being PGA Tour members. The gulf in class still exists for the most part and I'm looking to have a few of these in my staking plan this week.
I found it difficult to exclude Tommy Fleetwood given he has already overcome Rory McIlroy in a battle this year but I can't help but feel with little between them lately that Shane Lowry is the better bet of the two.
Lowry won here in 2022 and has come close on numerous other occasions that slightly gives him the edge over the Englishman. McIlroy can easily overcome last weeks heartache but at the same price with a slightly tougher front end of the market he makes little appeal in the betting.
Lowry has finished in the top 6 here in five of fourteen appearances. A further six top 20 finishes makes him the course form specialist and should he continue to roll his ball nicely with the putter which he has for the last three events then he must have a huge chance.
He was around the 10/1 mark last week in the North of Ireland and following the 12th place there the drift doesn't seem warranted to my eyes, even with the inclusion of Fleetwood and Horschel.
Lowry has every bit as good form at Wentworth than what he does at links courses and he looks the value pick of the front five in the market.
Laurie Canter at 60/1 (Eight Places)
It didn't take long for Laurie Canter to feel the benefit of competing with some of the game's best on the LIV tour on upon his return to the DPWT he managed a victory in June at the European Open.
A runner up in Mauritius also has spelt a solid return to this tour and I doubt he would have gotten that victory had it not been for the experience on the LIV circuit.
He continues to play well lately with top 25 finishes coming at the Open, the British Masters and then last week at the Irish Open.
He is one of the better performers off the tee in terms of distance and accuracy and that has become important at Wentworth down the last few years.
His putting improved last week in Ireland and should that club behave in a similar fashion he has a huge chance of making up for that narrow defeat to Horschel three years ago.
Bernd Wiesberger at 66/1 (Seven Places)
Bernd Wiesberger must get a mention after a disappointing effort last week and the drift towards 50/1 and bigger certainly catches the eye.
Having gone off a general 25/1 shot last week I can't quite understand why there has been such a drift on him. The Austrian played reasonably well last week from tee to green only to be outdone by another cold week on the greens.
He has missed just one cut here in his last nine attempts and simply can't be ruled out given how neat his long game has been of late. The putter often catches him out but he has putted well on these greens in three of his last four outings.
If we was 40/1 I wouldn't go near him this week but I'm very surprised he has drifted to this mark and he just must be included at the odds.
1pt each-way B.Wiesberger 66/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
Thomas Detry at 45/1 (Eight Places)
Keen to get another PGA Tour member on board I'll have another crack at Thomas Detry around this layout.
There is no doubt he is expensive to follow but his record here speaks a lot having been outside the top 13 only once in his last eight rounds here.
That spans three tournaments with various hard luck stories. He was disqualified in 2021 following a scoring error which in this day and age is absolutely ludicrous.
Only the ill informed or ageing journalists who harp back to 'tradition' can agree with that draconian ruling.
The following year he lay 5th after 54 holes with the event reduced to three days due to the death of a member of the Royal Family.
Last year he was 3rd at halfway only to stall over the weekend. He has shown enough here down the years that this is a track where he can score upon and a long overdue success could finally arrive in one of the biggest of them all.
Adrian Otaegui at 225/1 (Five Places)
At triple figure prices Adrian Otaegui looks one of the more lively outsiders in the field. The Spaniard has been too easily forgotten by the bookmakers this week given he has two DPWT wins in the last two years.
The latest of those came in China in May where he edged out Migliozzi and Soderberg, both of whom are considerably shorter in the market here.
After a string of missed cuts he managed a top 20 last week at the Irish Open and it's worth pointing out that he hit the ball extremely well tee to green the week before at the British Masters. It was a horrid putting week that cost him at the Belfry and his 17th placed finish last week could have been a whole lot better had the putter been warm.
That's the weak point of his game right now but his long game certainly looks in good enough nick to have a good week in Virginia Water.
Tom McKibbin at 70/1 (Eight Places)
At just 21 years of age and after a disappointing first round in front of his home fans last week, Tom McKibbin displayed plenty of strength and maturity to battle back to make the cut and put himself on the fringes of contention with a round to go.
He will look back on it as a largely successful week as it looked very likely he'd miss the halfway cut. The experience of playing with McIlroy over the first couple of days with large crowds will have benefitted the young Irishman and he has the game to take apart Wentworth.
Off the tee is only one part of the equation here but it's becoming more important in recent years with long and straight driving being a huge advantage around here.
He has that in abundance and the only part of his game that could do with serious improvement to contend this week is his iron play.
He should find himself in prime position on plenty of these holes and his putting held up well last week in Newcastle.
Having already won the European Open McKibbin won't be afraid of taking down a tournament of this magnitude and the driver should prove a huge asset against this field.
