There is just one player that hits all of Niall’s key trends for PGA Championship glory.
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As usual there will be plenty of trends to pour over when it comes to a Major but one of the most prominent for the PGA Championship is the previous Major result.
Many use a solid effort in contention at a Major Championship as a stepping stone to something greater, and for some of the more experienced sorts it's a sign of a return to their best before going on to win another Major.
Since 2019 and the switch for the PGA schedule, the Masters winner has somewhat struggled with the best being Scottie Scheffler (5/1 joint favourite on Betfred with Rory McIlroy) last year who followed up his victory with a top 10 finish.
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Prior to that, Hideki Matsuyama was next best who followed up his Augusta victory with a 23rd place finish at the PGA.
What is more telling though is that the PGA winners have all had a good Masters with Phil Mickelson (2021 PGA Winner) having the worst Masters result finishing 21st. Brooks Koepka won the PGA in 2019 and 2023 having finished runner up at the Masters on both occasions prior.
Justin Thomas won the PGA in 2022 after having finished 8th at the Masters. Last year's winner Xander Schauffele had showed up well at the Masters finishing 8th. This has become a really strong trend since the change in schedule as you can see below.
With the PGA winner coming from the Masters top 10 four out of the last five years let's have a look at this year's top 10 at Augusta and how they measure up against these key trends:
- Three top 10s during the season (11 of the last 12)
- 8th or better in the PGA Championship (nine of the last 12)
- Aged 31 or younger (nine of the last 12)
- Driving distance average 305+ (nine of the last 12)
Scheffler comes close to hitting all the trends but is knocked out (maybe harshly so) with an average driving distance a couple of yards less than required.
Bryson DeChambeau (best price 12/1 with multiple firms) is the only one that hits everything we are looking for and arrives here off the back of a hugely impressive victory at LIV Korea.
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He has made his last nine cuts across the PGA and US Open Championships which often throw up similar conditions. Only the brave golf betting tipsters will fade Bryson next week at Quail Hollow.
