First Round Leader

The weather as always plays a huge part in what part of the draw we concentrate on for First Round Leader in these Major Championship. We usually have confidence in what side of the draw gets the advantage on Thursdays but this time around it's not far off 50-50. 

Perfect weather looks set to hold for Day 1 at the 2025 US Open with very little in the way of wind across the day. Temperatures will rise significantly throughout the day which usually means better scoring conditions with the ball going that bit further as the day progresses. 

The one counter to that is that the greens will become firmer as the day goes on so it's whether you consider warmer temperatures or more receptive greens to have the advantage. 

I'm not quite sure myself and I my bets will be based more upon logic and price rather than their tee time. You can remind yourself of my outright selections for the event here.

US Open First Round Leader Tips

Hideki Matsuyama @ 60/1 (Seven Places)

More often than not in the Majors it's a big name that leads after day one and my first selection in the morning wave is Hideki Matsuyama. Matsuyama drove the ball really well a few weeks ago at Colonial and although he didn't quite perform as well last time out at Muirfield there are reasons to think he could go well here on day one. 

His putter is hot right now and there's little doubt that will be an important club this week, especially so when talking about the first 18 holes. We know his ability to hit the ball close with the irons so a lot will depend on how he hits the ball off the tee. 

He has proven time and time again in this event that he likes the toughest of tests and his record is a shade under the radar this week. Matsuyama has only missed one of 12 cuts at the US Open with two top 6 finishes coming in his last three appearances. He has all the tools to compete this week and if injury free could be a danger.

0.75pt each-way H.Matsuyama FRL 60/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, BetMGM

Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 90/1 (Seven Places)

Like Matsuyama, Matthew Fitzpatrick has only missed one cut at this event in 10 appearances and being a former US Amateur Champion has given him a solid base to continually perform at this event down the years. 

Injuries have set the 2022 Champion back a little in the last two years but there have been positive signs of late. A return to form with a top 25 at Philly Cricket Club was followed by a top 10 in the PGA Championship and it'll be interesting to see if he can kick on from here. 

His driving isn't quite the force it was when he won this event three years ago but he did hit it straight at Muirfield and for someone who was renowned for hitting fairways earlier on in his career a return to that could see him score well around Oakmont. 

He is paired with two former Champions in Clark and Woodland and it would not surprise me should one of these three make a bold bid for the first round lead.

0.75pt each-way M.Fitzpatrick 90/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM, Livescorebet

Ryan Fox @ 90/1 (Seven Places)

I'll go for two from each draw and my first pick in the afternoon is Ryan Fox. With two victories in his last four events the Kiwi will be full of confidence heading to Oakmont and I see no reason why he can't go well here on day one. 

His driving will more than likely not hold up for four days around here but should he continue like he did in Canada then he has a chance of going well on day one. I was particularly impressed by how he drove the ball on the final number of holes, and playoff holes on Sunday. 

A great drive on 15 set up a birdie to give himself the chance getting into a playoff and two great drives the demanding 16th and 17th were particularly impressive given how tough those holes were playing. 

Three excellent clips of the driver on four of the playoff holes gave him every chance and confidence looked to be sky high with that club during the final few hours at TPC Toronto. If that continues on day one here then look out because his approach play is absolutely on fire.

0.75pt each-way R.Fox 90/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM, Livescorebet

Collin Morikawa @ 40/1 (Seven Places)

I couldn't select Collin Morikawa for the win this week because it feels like a lifetime since he last landed a victory. I don't believe a US Open victory is on the horizon but I can't help but feel he could go well here as his accuracy off the tee should be a huge advantage. 

It's difficult to see his putter performing for four days around these greens but his driving and approach play is enough to warrant support in this market given how he has gone lately. 

2nd and 3rd after the first 18 holes in two of his last three events backs up my summary of his chances here on day one and across the week and he's one I wouldn't mind getting on in some side markets.

0.75pt each-way C.Morikawa  40/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM, Livescorebet