Scottish Open

The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland. This is one of the easier links tracks you'll see on the DPWT. Even in 2020 when the wind and rain blew an absolute hooley over the weekend Aaron Rai and Tommy Fleetwood still managed 11 under par to fight it out in the playoff.

In 2019 nineteen players finished 17 under par or better. In 2021 34 players made double figures under par. Last year 33 players shot 10 under or better across the week and for the week before the Open you can't help but think the players would benefit from a slightly tougher test.

Unless the weather plays a part this week scores will head towards the 20 under mark to compete. Those at the top of the tee to green stats for the week have dominated leaderboards here down the years with MacIntyre ranking 4th in that stat last year the previous two winners McIlroy and Schauffele have topped that statistic for the week.

The ball striking part of that equation is most important and only if the weather gets poor should we see scrambling come to the fore.

There is little doubt the big names have dominated here and the last five winners have all won on the PGA Tour either before or after their win in Scotland.

Mickelson, Fowler and Rose are another three to have triumphed at this event in the last eleven years so ignore the big names at your peril.

Below is a look at the stats of the top performers in the last four years of this tournament.

 

Scottish Open Tips

 

 

Xander Schauffele at 25/1 (Six Places)

I have been seduced into backing Xander Schauffele a couple of times this year and although I will not be selecting him next week in Portrush it looks like it makes sense to give him a go this week. Granted, last time out wasn't great finishing 61st in the Travelers but he's only once been outside the top 30 in his last eight starts.

8th at the Masters, 28th at the PGA and 12th at the US Open suggests Schauffele can't be too far away from contending one of these events again soon.

Why not this week on a course where he won back in 2022 and having since won an Open there aren't many more in the field better equipped for this. Perfect weather should help Xander also but it is his price that is the most enticing aspect of this.

A general 20/1 shot for the Open next week doesn't look like rising too much whilst you can get the same price this week on a course he has won on before and the task is infinitely easier than next week's.

Rahm, Lowry and Hatton are 3 strong contenders next week missing from this week's list so it makes sense to play the former champion here at the same price.

2pts each-way X.Schauffele  25/1  (1/5 6) Unibet, Bet MGM

Matt Fitzpatrick at 45/1 (Six Places)

Matt Fitzpatrick turned up here last year at 33/1 and this time we see as much as 12pts bigger and although this time around he has Scheffler to deal with I don't see many reasons why he should be any bigger than last year.

The Englishman is in much better form this time around having finished 8th at the PGA, 17th at the Travelers then 8th again last time out at the ill suited Rocket Classic.

Most importantly distance off the tee is now an asset of his once again, one of the main clubs that brought him huge success a couple of years ago.

Runner up here at the Renaissance on debut in 2021 was followed by 6th place the following year and now having won the Dunhill Links has enough in the locker to suggest a tame weathered Scottish Open is well within his capabilities.

His putter can be a big asset on weeks like this where plenty of birdies are needed and he's certainly trending in the right direction.

1.75pts each-way M/Fitzpatrick  45/1  (1/5 6) Paddypower, Skybet

Sam Burns at 30/1 (10 Places)

Calm conditions look set to dominate proceedings in North Berwick and that often plays into the hands of the Americans who have a much better chance at this type of golf whenever the weather is fair.

One who catches the eye is Sam Burns who bounced back after his US Open disappointment with a fine top 20 at the Travelers.

Burns was entitled to feel somewhat aggrieved after an unfair ruling at a crucial point of the US Open on Sunday costs him a couple of shots when he was forced to hit the ball lying in casual water.

He took it on the chin though despite some initial anger and I was very impressed by the way he handled that.

His putter is a big weapon in a contest like this and despite 31st being his best Open Championship finish to date it is worth noting he has putted extremely well on links greens to date considering they're an awful lot slower than what he is used to.

 

18th here at the Renaissance on his debut here in 2021 was a fine effort after an opening 72 finishing with rounds of 68-67-66.

Another top 20 last year is enough to make me think he is capable of better arriving here in much better shape than usual.

1.75pts each-way S.Burns  30/1  (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes

Neergaard Petersen at 80/1 (Eight Places)

If Patrick Reed was playing this week you'd probably see him around the 28/1 mark. Last week we went in on both him and Neergaard Petersen with the Dane just four points bigger than Reed.

Reed missed the cut whilst Rasmus finished 14th. Now it's not an exact science of course and this is a much tougher task for him to get off the mark in a field of this quality, but I am licking my chops about getting 80/1+ about this mega talent.

He had 3 weeks off after his 12th placed finish at the US Open so maybe after a run last week he will strip fitter for Scotland.

It's worth remembering that this is his full first season on tour and he has runner up finishes on both the main tours as well as a top 15 only his second Major outing.

The future is very bright and I remain convinced beating a field even of this magnitude is far from beyond him at this stage. 90/1....ooft!

1pt each-way R.Neergaard Petersen  80/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Matteo Manassero at 175/1

Matteo Manassero's chances here are difficult to ignore and in an event littered with triple figure contenders down the years I'm happy to play a few outsiders this week.

The Italian has had a month off from action and returning to links golf could come at the perfect time. Manassero ran Hojgaard and McIlroy very close at Royal County Down last year and back in his heyday (He's still only 32!) he twice finished inside the top 5 here at the Scottish Open.

 

Last year he was 3rd at halfway before finishing 15th. Last time out in Toronto he finished 6th but importantly ranked 2nd in stroked gained approach for the week, his best week statistically with the irons in his career.

A bit more luck on the greens there could have seen him land his maiden PGA Tour victory. Had he done that we'd be looking at closer to half this price for the Scottish so he looks an ounce of value.

1pt each-way M.Manassero 175/1  (1/5 6) (Paddy Power, Sky)

Aaron Cockerill at 800/1 (Eight Places)

Alex Fitzpatrick and Ryo Hisatsune are two interesting outsiders who could outplay their odds, as is Thorbjorn Olesen who could benefit from a return to links golf.

I'll sign off with another hail mary in the shape of Aaron Cockerill. The Canadian has gone well lately on the DPWT making four of his last five cuts including a 13th place in Austria and 10th at the Italian Open.

His long game has been in good nick lately ranking 7th and 14th in SG Approach in the last couple of weeks.

He managed a top 10 finish in esteemed company at Royal County Down last Autumn and with links golf being a great leveller the 1000/1 is tempting that he continues his good form here in Scotland.

0.5pt each-way A.Cockerill 800/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market