Niall Lyons has a big bet on one of the favourites for the 2025 Open Championship - one of his six outright selections.
The Open Championship
The first thing that strikes you when you walk the links at Portrush is the amount of raised greens with sharp drop offs either front or back or left and right. It's why scrambling played such a huge part of the equation back in 2019 and I expect the same to play out once again.
Favourable weather in the past week or so looks to be coming to an end and more unsettled conditions await the players for the 2025 Open Championship.
Great for viewers at home, not so much for spectators who will have to prepare for four seasons in one hole, never mind one day.
Fairways here are relatively generous and although there are plenty of out of bounds areas dotted throughout the course you need to make a serious error of judgement to fall foul of them (take note Rory).
It becomes much more of a second shot golf course but with the steep slopes around the greens it's a links course that simply can not be played along the ground.
Two or three holes lend itself to run ups with approach shots if you so wish, but most players will play every single approach shot through the air here. As a result wind form in the states comes into play.
The PGA National that hosts the recently renamed Cognizant Classic (formerly Honda) is renowned for Open winners and contenders playing well there. I won't go through the many, many champions of both events, but notably Shane Lowry has a solid record around there including a runner up finish back in 2022. 2019 Open runner up Tommy Fleetwood also had a guilt edged chance to win there.
I'd be surprised should a few recent winners or contenders from PGA National not pop up in the final few groups on Sunday at Portrush.
The Open Championship Tips
*Advised at 3pm on Monday 14th July.
- 4pts WIN J.Rahm 13/1 AK Bets
- 2.5pts each-way T.Hatton 28/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
- 2.5pts each-way T.Fleetwood 28/1 (1/5 6) Paddypower
- 2pts WIN L.Aberg 28/1 General
- 1pt each-way C.Smith 125/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM. Virginbet
- 0.5pt each-way J.Parry 450/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
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Jon Rahm at 13/1 (WIN)
An ex Irish links champion can follow in Shane Lowry's pitch marks this week by winning an Open Championship and thus being one event away from winning a grand slam.
Jon Rahm has a very nice history in this part of the world with a win at the neighbouring Portstewart golf club back in 2017. Two years later he captured another Irish Open victory at Lahinch and his credentials for this type of test are second to none.
The Scottish Open may look like the ideal preparation but a jaunt around Valderrama is certainly not an easy test and I expect Rahm to be perfectly prepared for what is a huge chance to lift the Claret Jug.
It certainly is difficult to get a hold of his form giving that is nearing a year since he last won on the LIV circuit. However Major performances this year of 14th, 8th and 7th suggest he is in the throws of some special golf in the big ones and Portrush should be the test that suits him the most in 2025.
He ranked 4th in SG Approach last week in Spain and ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation. Hitting greens comes easy to Rahm and it should be a big feather in his cap when it comes to scoring around Portrush.
Should he keep a level head all week and cope with the conditions I see him being a major player over the weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton at 28/1 (Eight Places)
Tyrrell Hatton didn't have to wait long before an attempt at putting right the awful bad luck he had on the 71st hole at Oakmont and he's surely well equipped to give this a good shot.
Around similar odds to the US Open runner up Bob MacIntyre, Hatton has bags more experience including a much more decorated CV. Twice a winner of the Dunhill Links, Hatton has tucked away the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bayhill as well as the coveted BMW PGA at Wentworth.
With the greatest respect to the Scot, I can't help but feel these two players at around the same odds isn't quite right.
Hatton doesn't really have a weakness but he should be more suited to a layout that won't entirely suit bombers off the tee and his relentless accuracy in that department should give him plenty of opportunities to fire darts at these flags.
It's not surprising he has a top 5 finish at PGA National in only two appearances there and if he is to break his major duck this looks like the occasion where all the stars have aligned.
Tommy Fleetwood at 28/1 (Six Places)
Tommy Fleetwood will be popular among punters this week given his close call here in 2019 and he's quite an easy, guilt free addition to the staking plan.
Slightly down the field in Scotland is not a worry as the winners of this in recent years have not contested the final stages of the Scottish Open.
Renaissance suited the bombers last week and the intricacies around Portrush should be much more palatable to Tommy.
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Runner up at the Travelers was a major disappointment for the englishman with putting woes once again dominating proceedings over the final 18 holes. Slower greens help his cause in that department and there's little doubt that this Major is the one that suits the most.
Fleetwood ranks 17th on tour this season in strokes gained around the green and 9th in strokes gained approach which is the perfect combination for around Portrush.
DataGolf now have Fleetwood ranked 5th in the world, the highest position they've ever held for him.
There's no doubt he has got the odd demon to banish to win an event of this magnitude, but he looks likely to put his best foot forward again and I'd be surprised were he not in the final number of groups over the weekend.
Ludvig Aberg at 28/1 (WIN)
I've been weighing up Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg's chances over recent days and I've come down on the side of the young Swede and I'll add a win only bet on him.
Outside of Augusta Aberg has a somewhat sketchy record with 12th at Pinehurst being his only other made cut. 2nd and 7th at the Masters were fine efforts, and he can be forgiven for thinking he blew a massive chance there just a few months ago before collapsing in the final few holes.
He has had his difficulties this year despite a victory at Torrey Pines but an 8th place at the Renaissance last week looks like good preparation.
There are rumblings that Aberg still has something to prove on the big stage which is an absolute nonsense in my opinion. He certainly makes mistakes, silly ones at times just like he did in Scotland, but he is still a little raw and can not be hammered for that.
Like Hovland, his expertise certainly doesn't lie around the greens which is why I mentally grappled with these two over recent days. However, what he does lack in that department he makes up for in star talent and the rest of his game can blow anybody's apart on any given week.
Make no mistake, Ludvig Aberg is a superstar and superstars don't stay winless in Majors for a long time. I expect him to break his duck relatively soon and it could just be a little bit from nowhere given he hasn't had the best few months.
He talked at the weekend of how happy he was with how he was hitting the ball so a continuation of that should see him go well here.
Cameron Smith at 125/1 (Seven Places)
Sepp Straka looks another strong candidate as he heads to Portrush in search of a better Major finish than those recent. Americans may have dominated this event in the last few years but the stars and stripes contingent doesn't look as strong as previous years (outside of the jolly).
Straka has had a hugely successful year first of all winning in the Californian desert then going onto win again at the Truist.
That makes it three PGA Tour wins in the space of two years to add to his other victory at the aforementioned PGA National. Straka is more than equipped in windy conditions and although it shouldn't be the most unsettled Open ever he has great credentials for this type of test.
Three missed cuts this year in Majors is a big negative though and his work around the greens leaves a lot to be desired.
It's for those reasons he is removed from the staking plan last minute, with plenty of trepidation that this is indeed an error on my part.
MacIntyre is left off the list partly because of the price and partly because I think it's easy to get a little carried away after one great Major performance.
He has a solid record in this event of course but I can't help but feel it's a little fanciful he's ready to win an Open Championship.
We backed Sam Burns at 30/1 this week and we see upwards of 70/1 the week after. That looks a little big for someone playing so well but a lack of good Open finishes is hard to get past.
A former Open Champion turning up here at triple figure prices is eye catching and I can't leave Cameron Smith off the list this week.
I do worry a little about how erratic he can be off the tee, and sometimes with his irons but if he can manage a middling week in those departments he could go really well.
So much of the test here is around the greens and it's just hard to describe how good Smith is in that department.
His short game as a whole I'd argue is the best in the world and should really translate to this track.
13th at a really tough track in Dallas three weeks ago then 7th at Valderrama looks like solid preparation to me given these places really are no pushover.
It's a tall order to win another Open of course but this looks like one of the likelier venues and I don't quite buy that gap in prices between Smith and other LIV contenders given his recent form.
1pt each-way C.Smith 125/1 (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM. Virginbet
John Parry at 4501/1 (Eight Places)
It's always nice to include one massive priced runner in the Open and this time it will be John Parry. The Englishman is a two time winner on the DPWT and 3 time Challenge Tour winner.
His latest win last December came on the coast in Mauritius, a venue which has often thrown up some windy conditions.
He went well in esteemed company in Australia last November finishing 8th there alongside the likes of Jason Day and recent PGA Tour winner Aldrich Potgieter.
He sits 7th in the Race to Dubai rankings this season and it's worth noting he has made the cut in three of four Major appearances.
With friends in living nearby he has practiced plenty at Portrush in recent months and with the pressure off could enjoy a really nice week.
