Niall Lyons previews the 2025 Spanish Open, and gives us his four best betting tips, ranging from 20/1 to 250/1.
Open de Espana 2025 Betting Odds
This is the 6th year on the trot that Club de Campo takes up hosting duties and it once again gets a very strong field with a handful of the LIV golfers taking their place at the starting post.
Jon Rahm has won this in three of the last six years at 5/2, 3/1 and 4/1. In 10 of the last 15 stagings of this event a Spaniard has either won or finished second so it pays to concentrate on the home crop of players.
This is a relatively short course that can be taken apart by the players and if you want to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon any score less than 20 under par probably won't cut it. That wasn't the case last year however as Hidalgo and Rahm fought it out in a playoff at 14 under par.
Neither length nor accuracy is overly favoured but I'd prefer the latter if anything and it's really what you do from then on which will decide your fate.
Hidalgo and Rahm were 6th and 1st respectively in strokes gained approach last year. Pavon was only 27th in approach player the year before and instead made his score on and around the greens ranking 1st in each of those categories. For Rahm the year before that it was a similar tail, whilst it was Cabrera Bello's tee to green game that stole the show back in 2021.
Course form holds up reasonably well with Rahm being a double winner whilst Cabrera Bello and Pavon both won these events having been runner up the previous year.
Open De Espana Previous Winners / Winning Score:
2024 - A.Hidalgo (-14)
2023 - M.Pavon (-23)
2022 - J.Rahm (-25)
2021 - R.Cabrera-Bello (-19)
2019 - J.Rahm (-22)
2018 - J.Rahm (-20)*
*Held at Centra Nacional de Golf
Previous Winners / Contenders Stats:
Open De Espana 2025 Betting Tips
Odds correct of 16:00 BST - Monday October 6th
Shane Lowry - 3.5pts Each-Way - 20/1 (1/5 6 Places) - Sky Bet & Paddy Power
Jayden Schaper - 1pt Each-Way - 70/1 (1/5 6 Places) - SpreadEx & Sporting Index
Grant Forrest - 1pt Each-Way - 75/1 (1/5 6 Places) - Sky Bet & Paddy Power
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia - 1pt Each-Way - 250/1 (1/5 8 Places) - bet365 Each-Way Extra market
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Tip 1: Shane Lowry - 3.5pts each-way - 6 Places
I must admit to being a little bit excited about the prospects of betting Shane Lowry this week. The Irishman skipped the Dunhill Links following a monumental party in New York and coming here a little fresher should be of benefit.
Lowry's iron game has been excellent for a while now ranking 10th for strokes gained approach in the Tour Championship, 4th in Ireland and 12th at Wentworth. This course should suit in the fact that length doesn't dominate proceedings so from the second shot onwards Lowry can be extremely dangerous.
Puig is shorter in the market than Lowry whilst the likes of Neergaard Petersen, McKibbin and Retain are either alongside or only a couple of points bigger. I don't quite believe that is right and we can look to the betting at the BMW PGA a few weeks ago as a pointer. Lowry was a general 28/1 shot there at Wentworth, a field which included McIlroy, Fleetwood, Aberg, Hatton, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, MacIntyre, Hall and Rai amongst others. None of those names go down to post in Madrid and it's worth nothing that Marco Penge was a bigger price than Lowry in that same event a few weeks ago.
I have to believe Lowry should be joint 3rd favourite this week alongside Puig if not shorter. Rahm is a strong opponent around here but it's worth noting after Lowry's opening 75 here last year (his first look at the course) Rahm only managed to beat him by one shot over the final three rounds with the Irishman finishing in a tie for 13th with a pretty bad week on the greens.
The course suits and I'm having a strong bet.
Tip 2: Jayden Schaper - 1pt each-way - 70/1 - 6 Places
Just like Shane Lowry, Jayden Schaper opened up here on debut with a 75 last year but over the final three days beat the eventual winner by three shots and Jon Rahm by two. That bodes well for another trip here and a faster start could see him in the mix again at the weekend.
He closed with a final round of 65 in Paris a couple of weeks ago to finish 9th and that statistically was his best week tee to green of the year. Heading to the Dunhill Links probably wasn't ideal after that effort and hopefully those three really good rounds in France haven't been blown away by the blustery conditions we seen in Scotland.
Schaper is a winner in the making no doubt and with four top 5 finishes this season he is getting closer and closer. This looks like a perfect setup for him in Madrid where length off the tee isn't a prerequisite so if he can pick up where he left off in France he has a big chance of upsetting the favs here.
Tip 3: Grant Forrest - 1pt each-way - 75/1 - 6 Places
Course form holds up extremely well here and having bounced back to some form last week at the Dunhill Links I'm happy to take a punt on Grant Forrest.
The Scot is clearly suited to links golf given he won in Aberdeen in August then after four missed cuts on the spin turns in a top 15 finish last week.
There's a chance that is a false sign of form but with two top 3 finishes here in the last four years I'm prepared to include him here.
Forrest has putted remarkably well here down the years ranking 3rd on the greens last year, 2nd in 2023 and 4th in 2021.
He hasn't hit his irons overly well here at Club de Campo over the last three years but he excels on the greens. Should he marry some better approach play and putt like he usually does here he has recent winning experience in the bag and go a long way to upsetting the odds here.
Tip 4: Alfredo Garcia-Heredia - 1pt each-way - 250/1 - 8 Places
I have to have a small one on Alfredo Garcia-Heredia at big prices.
The Spaniard was the darling of the K Club a few weeks ago when he partnered Rory McIlroy for both rounds over the weekend and more than held his own for a lot of the way home. He ended up in a tie for 12th place in Ireland but it was a tremendous performance under the spotlight all weekend.
It hasn't quite happened for him since but his two missed cuts at Wentworth and Saint Nom La Breteche can all be put down to really poor weeks on the greens, something that is not the norm over the last few months. His iron play was in decent shape at Wentworth and we can maybe expect a little better in Madrid.
He loves this place finishing 10th, 9th and 6th the last three years and at the prices he looks like a no brainer each way bet.
