Niall Lyons has picked out three selections in this week's DP World Tour Championship, ranging from 25/1 to 50/1,
DP World Tour Championship
Course - Jumeirah Golf Estates, Earth Course, Dubai.
Just seven players, Hojgaard, McIlroy, Rahm, Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, Willett and Stenson have shared the last 12 renewals of this fine event so clearly if you don't have a Major Championship already bagged, or an extremely bright future ahead of you, you need not apply to lifting this trophy on Sunday.
Runner ups down the years since 2011 include Paul Lawrie, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry and Patrick Reed so the quality it takes to contend here can not be underestimated.
A glance further down the betting board may provide the odd bit of value, but the results themselves spell out that class sets itself apart in this event and we'll more than likely have a winner from one of the game's elite.
Stenson (twice), McIlroy (three times), Fitzpatrick (twice) and Rahm (three times) makes previous winners of this event much more likely to perform again.
Not one particular statistic leaps off the page when looking at contenders here but you'll need pinpoint iron play to give yourself the best chances and a hot putter if you want to be fighting this out on Sunday evening.
Previous Winners / Winning Score
2024 - R.McIlroy (-15)
2023 - N.Hojgaard (-21)
2022 - J.Rahm (-20)
2021 - C.Morikawa (-17)
2020 - M.Fitzpatrick (-15)
2019 - J.Rahm (-19)
Winners / Contenders Stats:
Last year presented itself with a fine opportunity with McIlroy available at 11/2.
Hovland and Rahm were on top of their game but missing from that renewal so the favourite was a really great bet.
This time around we see 4/1 for the man who, along with the Gallagher brothers, have lit up 2025. It doesn't quite feel like a similar opportunity simply because there is one man clearly in better form over the last couple of months.
He didn't face that same test than what he'll face with Fleetwood this time around so it's probably best to leave the newest Grand Slam Champion unbacked.
Fleetwood will be a tough nut to crack this week there's no doubt and it crossed my mind to go all in on the Englishman.
Having backed him to win the Tour Championship I'm a little annoyed myself I didn't ride that wave further as it was clear there was nobody playing better golf.
It's maybe a lesson that you can't get bogged down not backing the shorter prices.
This week is tempting, however distance off the tee counts for plenty this week and although Fleetwood has a couple of runner up finishes he lacks a little in that department and this time I'll favour a few others.
DP World Tour Championship Betting Tips
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen - 2pts Each-Way.
Angel Ayora - 1.5pts Each-Way.
BetMGM UK
Tip 1: Marco Penge - 3pts Each-Way
25/1 and five places at 1/4 place terms advised with Betfred.
One question here is whether you're willing to pay the premium on Nicolai Hojgaard after last week.
30/1 was available in Abu Dhabi and that now makes way for 20/1. He has the perfect game for this place with a victory and a top 5 in two attempts and he'll be on everyone's shortlist.
He hasn't managed a victory since this event two years ago so I've made the decision to pass him up in favour of Marco Penge. I shared some thoughts with Ben Coley last week that maybe I have underestimated Marco a little bit and asked the question whether he could be Aberg material. We don't know yet of course but I'm beginning to think he may prove to be a lot better than what people are anticipating.
This week he has nothing to lose having gained a PGA Tour card and after a monumental season should really enjoy these four days in Dubai.
A poor week for the most part with the irons in Abu Dhabi cost him but he flew home with a 9 under par 63 on Sunday for a top ten finish. A sign of class many say is when you're not at your best to still manage a decent finish.
This year he had bad weeks with the irons in Turkey, Germany and Scotland only to bounce back the following week with great approach play figures. That bodes well for the Earth Course, a course that rewards those who gain plenty off the tee and if he can manage a good week on approach then he could be in business.
It is his debut here so it's a tall order but he looks to be an extremely quick learner and having missed out on a trio of victories I may start going with a gut instinct that Penge may just be a superstar.
Tip 2: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen - 2pts Each-Way
50/1 and six places best price available when publishing. 40/1 and five places widely available.
A look back to the Hainan Classic in late April and I was very keen on the chances of Rasmus Neergaard Petersen who was priced up at 14/1.
Much stronger fields have presented themselves since and yet the talented Dane hovered between 14s and 20s for the most of the season and opportunities didn't present themselves to bet. In that same event in Hainan Marco Penge was a 40/1 shot and now we see the Dane drift out towards that number this week.
I'm an advocate of backing him at bigger prices in stronger fields simply because he is good enough, but as I say chances have been thin on the ground.
The Earth course should provide a really good chance for him despite him being another debutant. He continues to hit a really strong ball off the tee with any problems coming thereafter.
His irons haven't been great over the last month or so but there was an upward curve last week ranking 15th in approach play at Yas Links.
Should there be any improvement in that department it will be down to the putter, a club that has deserted him at times this year.
The approach play was the missing piece of the jigsaw and having shows enough in that department last week now is the time to strike with a very fair price.
Tip 3: Angel Ayora - 1.5pts Each-Way
50/1 and six places best price available when publishing. 45/1 and five places widely available.
As I mentioned in the introduction only Major winners/contenders or young stars with very bright futures need apply here if you want to win this event. I've opted this year much more on the side of potential and I'll finish with another in the shape of Angel Ayora.
The Spaniard was highly tipped to hit the ground running on the DPWT but he possibly hasn't hit the heights we were expecting. He's only just turned 21 years of age though and there are many big days ahead for this lad.
Lately he looks to be playing some of the best golf of his short career to date with a string of top 5/10 finishes with the latest coming in Abu Dhabi last week. A trip around Yas Links on Sunday with Alex Noren and Patrick Reed will have done him no harm whatsoever, neither will shooting 63 in their presence beating the former Masters champion by ten shots.
His ball striking is trending in the right direction which bodes well for a trip to the Earth Course and should his putter heat up a little he may find himself in the dizzy heights of the final few groups here on Sunday.
