Niall Lyons Four Betting Tips for the Nedbank Golf Challenge

Course - Gary Player CC, Sun City, South Africa.

Over the last few years this event had formed part of the run in to the DP World Tour Championship but now it has taken it's more traditional slot at the back end of the schedule.

Small greens here make approach play difficult so a solid putter will be needed to scramble well.

Despite it's yardage it doesn't play as long because of the altitude and recent winners such as Homa, Fleetwood and Grace is a sign that ball striking is extremely important. Fleetwood was 1st and 2nd from tee to green in his two recent victories here and that seems like the place to start. You won't get away with any part of the long game not firing around here and the longer and straighter you can hit it from the tee the better.

Kikuyu rough around the small surfaces usually means scrambling plays a part in the equation also but I'd certainly lean towards the elite golfers who have a solid tee to green game.

Previous Winners & Winning Score:

2024 - J.Veerman (-5)
2023 - M.Homa (-19)
2022 - T.Fleetwood (-11)
2019 - T.Fleetwood (-12)
2018 - L.Westwood (-15)
2017 - B.Grace (-11)

Previous Winners & Contenders Stats:

Tip 1: Marco Penge - 4pt Win

Best odds of 14/1 with Bet MGM and Virgin Bet when publishing.

Puig, Fitzpatrick, Rai, Fleetwood, Penge, MacIntyre, Kim and Noren are just a handful of the winners in the last number of months on the DPWT as the biggest names in the field continue to dominate these events.

Viktor Hovland and Marco Penge along with Tom McKibbin are the three biggest names in this field and I can't help but feel it's prudent to include one of them given the gulf in class between them and many in the field.

With the greatest respect to Garrick Higgo, who slots in as third favourite, Hovland and Penge must be licking their lips at the prospect of another victory. Hovland hasn't been seen in over six weeks and I'd much rather play Marco Penge who has continued to play solid golf since winning in Spain in October.

A top 10 in Abu Dhabi was followed by 22nd at the Earth Course in Dubai but having opened with a 74 was only one shot behind the playoff loser Rory McIlroy for the remaining three rounds. His lowest rounds in each of his last four events read 64-63-67-65. He looks to be able to go low at least one of the four days and that may be enough to get him into contention here at Sun City given scores rarely run away at this event.

From tee to green is where Penge will excel here and the golfer who has topped strokes gained off the tee has won this event on two of the last four occasions. Penge would be a worthy favourite to top that statistic this week and overall he has faced much tougher fields than this in the last few months.

Hovland may well arrive in good nick in which case he has a great chance, but the Englishman strips fitter for recent outings and looks a really decent price to land the big prize here.

Tip 2: Jesper Svensson - 1.5pts Each-Way

40/1 and five places widely available when publishing.

Next up is Jesper Svensson, who finished the season on the PGA Tour in 111th spot. Normally that would be enough to gain a full PGA Tour card but this year only the top 100 get that prize whilst 100-125 get conditional status.

Overall it wasn't too bad a year with five top 20 finishes which included 16th at the Open in Portrush. He is certainly capable of better though and a return to mostly DPWT company should provide the perfect tonic.

There are reasons to believe a big effort is on the horizon for the Swede. He was 15th at the Bank of Utah Championship at the end of October ranking 4th from tee to green that week. 14th at Bermuda was another fine effort whilst last time out at the RSM Classic he ranked 15th in the field from tee to green only to have a nightmare week with the putter. His long game looks to be in the best shape it has been since the Summer and having gotten a first look at this course last year could put himself back on the map. 

Tip 3: Oliver Lindell - 1.25pts Each-Way

50/1 and five places available with Sky Bet & Paddy Power when publishing.

I can't help but gave a swing at Oliver Lindell at anything bigger than 40/1 in a field where if he top couple don't fire it is anybody's to win.

The Finn was 42nd on the Race to Dubai on his debut season with a string of really impressive efforts throughout the year. The Autumn has seen Lindell produce some really eye catching efforts with the irons ranking 1st on approach in Ireland then 2nd in the same statistic at Wentworth.

He was 4th on approach in Abu Dhabi last month then 6th with the irons at the season ending DPWT Championship. The problem on those two recent outings has been with the putter and he'll need an upturn in that department if he is to contend here. Nevertheless, there is barely anyone in the field hitting the ball with his irons better than Lindell and given that it's his debut here we have to take the chance that he can deal with the greens. 

Tip 4: Antoine Rozner - 1.25pts Each-Way

60/1 with bet365's Each-Way Extra (8 Places) Advised.

I hadn't planned to have four in my staking plan but Antoine Rozner looks too big a price not to get involved with.

Unlike Svensson he failed to fire at all on the PGA Tour this year finishing 156th in the rankings. Back in DPWT company should grant him more opportunities and we can't ignore his last outing on the PGA Tour. 25th at the RSM Classic was a very fair effort with four rounds in the 60s including a second round of 62.

A repeat of that effort would see him in contention here at the weekend and as we know ignoring those who are dropping back down in class can prove very costly.