Niall Lyons has picked out five betting tips for this week's Alfred Dunhill Championship.
Alfred Dunhill Championship
The usual home for this Leopard Creek takes a break for a year and we head to the Royal Johannesburg Golf Club, home of the Joburg Open between 2007-2017. The course is at altitude so plays nowhere near the yardage on the card and with water dotted throughout is more of a placement type of golf course.
Winners here such as Richard Sterne, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Andy Sullivan and Darren Fichardt definitely lean in towards that narrative also. What is abundantly clear though is that the home contingent dominate this event and it'll take some performance to wrestle it off them.
Of the 11 editions of the Joburg Open held here right of them have gone to South Africans. 9 of the 11 featured a South African runner up also so it should pay to concentrate on the local players as they have a much better feel for the kikuyu grass.
Tip 1: Jayden Schaper - 4pt Win
Best odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes / Coral when publishing.
Last week was a tough watch having backed Jayden Schaper a couple of times in the last number of weeks and although he didn't manage the victory I think he made a huge step towards one.
He has been playing really super golf for a couple of months now and in time we could see his effort of pushing Kristoffer Reitan all the way a fair bit ahead of the handicapper. Extremely accurate from the tee the South African doesn't appear to have any weaknesses, maybe just a little length off the tee. That won't matter this week and his strengths should go down really well around this track.
I was hugely impressed by how he ran down Reitan last week from a seven shot deficit to a chance of a playoff had he holed a 25 footer on the final hole. It took great resolve and he never flinched once. His game remained really impressive under the heat of a raucous home crowd and you have to think it was a huge stepping stone in his journey to becoming a tour winner.
I don't think this week is too soon and to be fair I expected him to be joint favourite alongside Bezuidenhout. There's no way I'd have Ayora shorter than him on his home turf. It looks like he has timed his form perfectly for an event such as this and if the home dominance is to continue at this course I make the young Schaper favourite to oblige.
Tip 2: Thriston Lawrence - 3pt Win
Best odds of 28/1 with BetMGM & VirginBet when publishing.
Thriston Lawrence finished 33rd last week at the Nedbank but hit the ball quite well off the tee and if he does so again there should be improvements to come in other areas of his game.
The South African has twice won on a fiddly golf course at altitude when winning the Omega European Masters at Crans in 2022 and then again in late August of this year. Royal Johannesburg should really suit him and the last time we saw him here was back in 2015 which is pretty much irrelevant to the golfer we see now.
Since that win in the Swiss Mountains he has been slightly out of sorts but did manage a 3rd placed finish in India finishing alongside Lowry and ahead of Viktor Hovland. He went off a general 66/1 shot in the end of season Tour Championship in Dubai and given that field included McIlroy, Fleetwood, Aberg, MacIntyre and Fitzpatrick among many more of Europe's best the 28/1 on offer this week with Bezuidenhout as favourite looks really fair.
Tip 3: Richard Sterne - 1.5pts Each-Way
45/1 and five places available with Ladbrokes & Coral when publishing.
Richard Sterne won here back in 2008 and followed it up with a second victory five years later and must come into consideration here. The likes of Oosthuizen, Grace and Schwartzel maybe aren't quite the dominant forces they once were and this gives the likes of Sterne a huge chance to make progress.
Betfair Sportsbook
- Very strong sign up offer
- Flush and fast app available on both iOS and Android
- Extensive betting content site via betting.betfair
Definitely not the longest hitter, Sterne will be suited by the altitude here and his accurate long game should translate well once again to this Royal Johannesburg track. The South African's form since the Autumn began has been really eye catching with top 20s in the Irish and French Opens followed by a 3rd placed finish in the Dunhill Links. 14th at the Genesis and 12th in Abu Dhabi meant Sterne was just a handful of places outside the top 50 requirement to make the DP World Tour Championship finale in Dubai.
He should be licking his lips at the chance of another victory given his form these last few months and given the record of the home players here he looks a value play to put his best foot forward.
Tip 4: Zander Lombard - 1.25pts Each-Way
70/1 and five places with Ladbrokes & Coral when publishing.
Some silly prices were about for Zander Lombard early on Monday but I still think what's left could be worth taking.
Back in late September, he finished 3rd in a Sunshine tour event before heading to the Dunhill Links and finishing a very respectable 21st in that field. After that nothing much happened and he was forced to head to the DP World Tour Qualifying Final Stage to obtain his tour card. He did it in ridiculous fashion. Rounds of 64-69-67-64-64-63 saw him win the event at a total of 37 under par a remarkable 13 shots clear of second place. Given the field statistically that was his best event in over two years.
A missed cut followed in his homeland then he finished 7th in another Sunshine event. He hasn't exactly lit it up since that victory in Spain but a return to Royal Johannesburg where he finished runner up in 2016 should be the perfect tonic.
Tip 5: Jens Dantorp - 0.75pts Each-Way
Best odds of 250/1 and six places with SpreadEx and Sporting Index.
Jens Dantorp hasn't been seen since the Genesis Championship in late October where he missed the cut but previous efforts suggest he may be worth a small bet here at a massive price.
This type of fiddly track where a good deal of accuracy is needed with the long game should suit Dantorp and he is another who will like the altitude.
Only five starts ago he was 14th in France, a field that included the likes of Michael Kim, Brooks Koepka and Min Woo Lee. 30th in Spain was a fair effort then another top 20 arrived in India, a field that included McIlroy, Fleetwood and Lowry amongst others. His long game has been in decent nick throughout that period and I'm more than happy to get involved at 150/1 or bigger.
