Niall Lyons is 80+ points up this season, he has three selections to follow in the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.
Waste Management Phoenix Open
The Waste Management Phoenix Open is held at TPC Scottsdale, Arizona.
Scheffler, Koepka and Matsuyama have shared six of the last eleven renewals of this event. With Simpson winning in 2020 that makes eight of the last eleven winners here having won a major either before or after their victory at Phoenix.
The previous nine renewals tell somewhat of a different story in that regard, but maybe the increased intensity here with the escalation of the atmosphere at the 16th and around the course it takes a different type of character to win around here now.
TPC Scottsdale is second only to Augusta National in terms of how course history impacts future results, therefore looking to past form on this track often helps to narrow the field. Taylor finished runner up in 2023 prior to going one better the following year.
Scheffler finished 7th before winning here two years on the spin. Koepka was 3rd the year after winning. Fowler had two runner ups here before winning in 2019. As ever when playing in the desert a nod to form at similar events such as the American Express or Shriners is wise.
Only one player have made the top 5 here in the last four years having finished outside the top 20 in strokes gained tee to green for the week. The winners in recent years have ranked 36th,26th, 8th, 6th and 44th in driving distance so although not necessary it surely helps to hit the ball far at Scottsdale.
There is no doubting the key part of the game here though and that's approach play and greens in regulation. Detry ranked 1st in both those categories last year whilst Taylor ranked 9th and 2nd in those statistics in 2024 when winning.
Scheffler ranked 1st and 3rd in those stats when winning in 2023 whilst the year before although he ranked 55th on approach, he still finished 11th in GIR.
His sub standard approach play was fixed with the putter ranking 2nd in the field that week.
Koepka ranked 2nd and 1st in approach/GIR, whilst Simpson ranked 1st and 6th. It's a ball strikers golf course and the putting surfaces are as smooth and blemish free as they come.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Past Winners
Waste Management Phoenix Open Tips
2.5pts each-way X.Schauffele 18/1 (1/5 10) Ladbrokes, Coral
1.25pts each-way M.Fitzpatrick 45/1 (1/5 6) Bet MGM, VirginBet
1.25pts each-way B.Koepka 50/1 (1/5 8) Betfred
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Xander Schauffele at 16/1 (10 Places)
Xander Schauffele was a failure for us last week at the Farmers but a second round of 69 on the North course to miss the cut on the number is far from a disaster and I can't help but feel this course dog has a big chance of bouncing back from that effort.
Schauffele wasn't on many punters' lists following a two month break before landing the Baycurrent Classic in Japan and he wasn't exactly lighting it up beforehand. I believe Schauffele will prove himself to be a top operator once again following a slight lull after his two Major victories.
His prowess off the tee is a big advantage around here and although his accuracy with the driver has declined a little he should have plenty in the tank for a good fist at TPC Scottsdale.
In six appearances here he has finished 10-3-2-16-10-17 and this is one course that we certainly can not ignore the course form. It's a more straightforward affair than last week and in hindsight his first round of the season on the South Course at Torrey Pines was far from ideal.
Brooks Koepka at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Chris Gotterup could continue his fine run of form this week although his price doesn't quite appeal. In what is somewhat of an uninspiring market this week my final bet will be on Brooks Koepka.
56th doesn't tell the full picture from last week as he ranked 11th from tee to green but last in the field on the greens. Poa greens may not be the ideal start to the year for him and back to a venue on which he has gained strokes on the green on the field on every occasion he has played he should be better off.
He will need a slight improvement off the tee than last week but his long game was certainly in decent enough shape ranking 20th in strokes gained approach.
Whether Brooks will contend or even win another Major is up for debate but I'll nail my colours to the mast and say there will be more PGA Tour victories to come at the very least. I don't think it will take him long to get back into the groove of things and a trip to Scottsdale where he has won twice has come at the ideal time.
The calibre of golfer winning this event down the last decade or so is really high and a trio of Major winners looks the way forward.
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Matt Fitzpatrick at 45/1 (Six Places)
Matt Fitzpatrick finished off 2025 in really spectacular fashion by making a late run for the Ryder Cup team then capping off a wonderful Autumn by winning the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.
There was a fair decline in distance off the tee for the Englishman throughout 2024 and he actually fell below tour average in early 2025. He found some length off the tee once again though in the latter half of last year and there's no doubt that contributed to a run of better results.
He shook off some rust by making the cut but finishing down the field in the American Express and that desert golf should prove fruitful as he heads to Scottsdale.
CUT-15-29-10 have been his four finishes here so he knows how to get around the course, in particular off the tee where he has gained plenty on the field on each occasion.
Any rise in his approach play should give him a good opportunity to contend for his second PGA Tour victory.
1.25pts each-way M.Fitzpatrick 45/1 (1/5 6) Bet MGM, VirginBet
