Four to consider in the first-round leader market for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Phoenix Open FRL
Seonghyeon Kim – 110/1 (Paddy Power) - 1pt ew (Five Places)
Kim didn’t quite deliver for us last week at 40/1 on the North Course at the Farmers, but he still posted a solid effort, sitting 23rd after round one. At 110/1 this week, he’s worth another look.
Experience at TPC Scottsdale counts, and Kim has played here before — which matters, as this course ranks as the fourth most predictive on the PGA Tour based on past performance. A T28 finish in 2024 is respectable, and his T8 position after round one that year only reinforces the idea he can be in contention early.
There’s also a trend worth noting: the first-round leaderboard has often been dominated by afternoon tee times over the last three editions of this tournament. Kim’s 12:11 pm tee time fits that pattern perfectly.
He’s been a fast starter recently too, with his last six opening rounds producing finishes of 2-2-56-2-3-3-23. The most recent three came on the PGA Tour, where he’s been firmly in contention at both the Sony Open and the American Express.
All told, Kim’s combination of course experience, proven fast starts, and favourable tee-time trends make him an appealing option in the first-round leader market this week.
Pierceson Coody – 66/1 (BetMGM) 1pt ew (Six Places)
Pierceson Coody is another player arriving in excellent form and one I want to be on despite an early tee time.
While this will be his first competitive start at this course, that lack of course form didn’t stop him last week, when he finished T2 at Torrey Pines after three missed cuts in prior years. He has opened the season with three straight finishes of T18 or better, and this layout looks an ideal fit for his skill set.
Coody is one of the best drivers of the ball on Tour, ranking first for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2025, which is a major asset on a course where driver is used around 90% of the time. He also ranks third in tee-to-green over the last six months and sits 20th for ball striking over the same period.
Those strengths translate directly into scoring. He ranks inside the top five in Going for the Green %, Birdie or Better %, and Bogey Avoidance, highlighting his ability to both apply pressure and limit mistakes. The tools are clearly there for a low round.
Fast starts have also been a feature. He led after round one at the American Express two weeks ago and ranks eighth in this field for round-one performance over the last six months. His last five opening-round finishes read 14-15-41-1-23.
With elite driving, strong all-round numbers, and a proven tendency to start quickly, Coody looks well placed to feature prominently in the first-round leader market.
BetMGM UK
Nick Taylor – 66/1 (BetMGM) - 1pt ew (Six Places)
Nick Taylor is known for starting seasons strongly, and he’s followed that familiar pattern again this year. A T13 finish while defending his title at the Sony Open was backed up by a solid T27 at the American Express, where he sat sixth heading into the weekend. That form builds on an excellent 2025 campaign, which included 10 top-25 finishes and victory at the Sony Open, and the momentum has clearly carried over.
Even with an early tee time, he’s difficult to overlook given how quickly he’s begun both tournaments this season and his clear affinity for this course. Taylor finished second to Scottie Scheffler here in 2023 before going one better in 2025, when he claimed victory and tied the course record with an opening-round 60 (-11). He also sat T2 after round one in 2024.
Fast starts have been a feature again this year. He finished round one tied for the lead at the Sony Open after an eight-under 62 and followed that up at the American Express by ending the opening day 20th overall, recording the sixth-lowest score on the La Quinta course.
His comfort in these conditions is reflected in the numbers. Taylor ranks third in this field for Strokes Gained: Total on desert courses over the last three years and has finished inside the top 27 in five of his last six starts in desert settings. He ranked 28th for Strokes Gained: Approach last season, and his ninth-place ranking in that category at the Sony Open further boosts confidence on a layout that places a clear emphasis on second-shot play.
Andrew Novak – 90/1 (BetMGM) - 1pt ew (Six Places)
Another we sided with in the first-round leader market last week who didn’t quite land, but there’s enough here to suggest he’s worth another chance. Novak started slowly at Torrey Pines, sitting T41 after round one, but once again showed his comfort on the course with rounds of 69 and 70 before closing with a superb final-round 66 - the second-lowest score of the day - to finish T7.
What really stood out in that performance was his iron play, as he ranked third in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the week.
He missed the cut here at the Phoenix Open last year, but his 2024 showing offers more encouragement. That week he finished T8, ranking eighth for approach and 17th for putting, and crucially sat T2 after round one. Even his other opening-round effort here in 2025 - a T27 after shooting two-under - is far from discouraging.
Recent opening-round form also stacks up well. His last four first-round finishes read 4-8-12-41, which places him inside the top 13 in this field for round-one performance over the last six months, improving to ninth when extending the sample to 12 months.
With positive course memories, a strong history of fast starts, and irons clearly trending in the right direction, Novak has the profile to make an impact on day one.
