Nick Taylor – 66/1 (Six Places) 1pt ew

Nick Taylor looks like he has an excellent chance to hit the ground running at Muirfield Village, with the Canadian arriving in some of the best form of his season and boasting a strong first round record.

Taylor ranks first in this field for first-round performance over his last six tournaments, opening with positions of 15th, 3rd, 4th, 27th, 10th and 5th.

That ability to post an early score has also translated well to Muirfield Village, where he was tied-fourth after the opening round last year, tied-12th after round one in 2024 and tied-fifth after the first day in 2021 (the last three times he played this tournament).

The five-time PGA Tour winner has been quietly putting together some impressive results recently, sitting second after 36 holes and fifth through 54 holes at the Cadillac Championship before finishing ninth, recording a career-best 14th-place finish at Quail Hollow in the Truist Championship (an event that has correlating form to this) and contending deep into the PGA Championship before eventually ending the week in 26th.

His game appears tailor-made for this test. Taylor combines excellent driving accuracy with strong approach play, while his short game remains one of the sharpest on Tour. With Muirfield Village's narrow, small greens and penal rough placing a greater emphasis on precision rather than power, the Canadian's strengths should once again come to the fore.

Last year's fourth-place finish here included rankings of second for Greens in Regulation and eighth for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, another showing like that can put himself in contention early once again.

Alex Smalley - 55/1 (Six Places) - 1pt ew

Alex Smalley has become one of the most reliable fast starters on the PGA Tour in recent weeks.

His recent Thursday form is impossible to ignore, having opened with positions of 7th, 1st, 2nd and 1st across four of his last five starts.

The American's overall form is equally compelling. Since April, he has finished 14th at the Valero Texas Open, runner-up at the Zurich Classic alongside Hayden Springer, seventh at the Cadillac Championship, 17th at the Truist Championship, second at the PGA Championship and third at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In fact, only Scottie Scheffler has produced better results than Smalley over the last two months.

From a statistical standpoint, his game looks perfectly suited to go again at Muirfield Village. Smalley ranks seventh in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last six tournaments and is one of the strongest iron players in attendance from long range, ranking among the top 20 for creating birdie opportunities within 15 feet from both 175-200 yards and beyond 200 yards over the past year. That's a valuable asset on a course where long-iron proficiency is regularly tested.

His accuracy off the tee is another major positive. Smalley's misses tend to be controlled rather than destructive, a trait that should prove particularly valuable around a venue where thick rough and water hazards severely punish wayward driving. Add in an improving short game and a strong record on demanding scoring courses, and there is little not to like.

While previous visits to Muirfield Village resulted in missed cuts, those came before the dramatic rise we've seen in 2026. Smalley has climbed from outside the world's top 100 to inside the top 40 in just a few months and arrives full of confidence after repeatedly contending alongside the game's elite.

Sungjae Im - 90/1 (Six Places) 0.75pts ew

At near triple-figure odds in the first-round leader market, Sungjae Im appeals as a player with both the course pedigree and all-round game to outperform his price.

His record at Muirfield Village is particularly encouraging, with finishes of 10th, 8th and 16th in three of the last four editions of this event. The Korean has consistently looked comfortable on one of the PGA Tour's toughest tests and arrives this week having posted two top-10 finishes in his last four starts.

The obvious concern is his approach play. Im's irons have been inconsistent throughout the season and a disappointing second round at Colonial, where he lost 5 strokes in approach, highlighted those struggles once again. However, there are signs that a return to Muirfield Village could help spark improvement. His fifth-place finish at the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow recently stands out, with that venue sharing several similarities to this week's test. Both courses place a premium on long-iron play, regularly demand approaches from beyond 175 yards and produce comparable greens-in-regulation numbers.

Encouragingly, Im gained strokes on approach during the opening two rounds at Quail Hollow and ranked 13th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach after round one. That's an important reminder that while his iron play has been erratic, he remains capable of producing elite ball-striking performances in isolation  - exactly what we need here.

His long-iron numbers also suggest there is more upside than recent results indicate. Despite the inconsistencies, Im ranks 11th in this field for creating scoring opportunities within 15 feet from beyond 200 yards over the last 12 months, a key statistic at a venue that repeatedly asks players to excel with longer approaches. He ranks among the top 15 in his field in most long iron statistics.

Elsewhere, the foundations are strong. Im ranks 14th in this field for Total Driving (a measure of distance and accuracy off the tee) over the last year, while his short game remains among the best on Tour. The putter has also shown signs of life, ranking seventh at the CJ Cup and 15th at the Truist Championship, while he has gained strokes on the greens in each of his last four appearances at Muirfield Village.

If the irons cooperate for just one day, Im has more than enough course form, long-game quality, and putting upside to contend for first-round leader honours.