3M Open 2026 Tips: Best Bets at TPC Twin Cities from 50/1 to 80/1

The PGA TOUR trades the fescue and firmness of links golf for something altogether different at TPC Twin Cities this week, a flat, water-logged Arnold Palmer design in Blaine, Minnesota that plays more like a Florida resort course than anything you'd expect in the upper Midwest. With water threatening tee shots and approaches on the majority of holes, this is a track built for birdies and blow-ups in equal measure.

TPC Twin Cities is one of the most birdie-friendly venues on TOUR, but it also chews up more balls in the water than anywhere else on the schedule. Scoring averages sit comfortably under par most years, yet winning totals in the high teens or low 20s under have coexisted with some brutal individual rounds.

The past champions' roll call - Kitayama, Vegas, Finau, Champ, Wolff - is evidence of one of the most important factors here, total driving. But don't overweight bombers alone. The fairways are wider than TOUR average, yet the smart play is often to challenge the edges for a better angle, so accuracy off the tee matters just as much as distance.

Where the tournament is won, though, is with the irons, particularly from 175-225 yards, given how many approaches here come from beyond 175. The par 5s look reachable on the yardage sheet but demand serious precision on the second shot, and the long par 3s are as tough a set as players will face all year. 

3M Open 2026 Tips

• Ben Kohles at 70/1 (Eight Places) - 1pt EW
• Johnny Keefer at 50/1 (Eight Places) - 1pt EW
• William Mouw at 60/1 (Eight Places) - 1pt EW
• Emiliano Grillo at 80/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW

Ben Kohles at 70/1 (Eight Places) - 1pt EW

Ben Kohles arrives in excellent form, recording finishes of 23rd-3rd-15th in his last three PGA Tour starts, and he is also just under two months removed from a victory on the Korn Ferry Tour, the win of his career.

He has shown that he thrives in low-scoring events, in his last two outings he has posted 11-under to finish tied 15th at the ISCO Championship after firing 18-under for a tied-third finish at the John Deere Classic. His best PGA Tour finish also came in a birdie-fest, finishing tied second at 22-under at the 2024 RSM Classic. With another low-scoring week expected, the conditions should suit his game.

If you pay attention to trends, it is also encouraging that three of the last six winners have recorded a top-20 finish at the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run the same season. Finishing third there and competing in the final group on Sunday so recently, Kohles will have gained valuable experience should he find himself in contention again this week.

Finishes of tied 24th and tied 20th in the last two editions of this event are further evidence that he is comfortable with the test. At 7,431 yards, the course is the 10th longest on the PGA Tour schedule and, while length off the tee is certainly an advantage, past champions have shown it is far from essential. Kohles is not among the biggest hitters, but his combination of elite driving accuracy and outstanding iron play gives him the perfect platform to compensate.

He ranks first in this field for average distance from the edge of the fairway over the last six months, underlining how consistently he finds position off the tee, while he also ranks sixth for approach play. This is undoubtedly a stronger field than those he has been competing against in recent weeks, but his tied-23rd finish at the U.S. Open showed he has the game to compete with the very best.

Johnny Keefer at 50/1 (Eight Places) - 1pt EW

This looks like an excellent opportunity for the 2025 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year to add to the two KFT victories he secured last season.

The 25-year-old ticks plenty of boxes for this test. He is powerful off the tee, elite with his irons and arrives in solid form. He ranks seventh in this field for driving distance, eighth for approach play over the last six months and seventh for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

There is a slight concern around his accuracy, ranking 59th in the field for average distance from the edge of the fairway. With 27 water hazards across the course and several pinched landing zones, finding the right positions off the tee will be crucial. However, if he does find himself in trouble, he has the firepower to make up for mistakes, ranking 10th in this field for birdie-or-better percentage on easier-scoring courses over the last 12 months.

Keefer arrives after a respectable tied-59th finish on his Open Championship debut, where he sat tied 25th heading into the weekend, showing he can handle the pressure and demands of elite competition. Prior to that, he produced an impressive tied-third finish at the Scottish Open, mixing it with the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Robert MacIntyre, Min Woo Lee and Rory McIlroy near the top of the leaderboard.

He has also added two further top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season, finishing third at the Houston Open in March and ninth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in late May. With his combination of power, elite iron play and recent high-level performances, Keefer has the tools to make an impact.

William Mouw at 60/1 (Eight Places) - 1pt EW

The big-hitting 25-year-old William Mouw has already proven he can thrive at this time of year, securing his maiden PGA Tour victory at the 2025 ISCO Championship before returning 12 months later to finish tied 10th in the same event. He carried that momentum into the 3M Open last year, finishing tied seventh on debut just a week after his breakthrough win. If that late-July purple patch is anything to go by, Mouw could be primed for another strong showing at TPC Twin Cities this week.

His irons were the standout feature of his most recent performance, ranking third in the field for approach at the ISCO Championship. Before that, he ranked 10th in approach play when finishing tied 26th at the John Deere Classic. If he can bring that level of iron play to TPC Twin Cities, he should have plenty of opportunities to attack, particularly on a course that ranks among the easiest on Tour for gaining strokes with approach shots.

Mouw is longer than average off the tee and very accurate - he ranks 20th in this field for average distance from the edge of the fairway. Looking deeper, he ranks 14th over the last 12 months for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on courses with high penalties for missed fairways, suggesting he can combine power with enough control when accuracy is rewarded.

The main question mark is his putting, but there are reasons for optimism. He ranked fifth on these greens at last year's event and he actually lost strokes putting in each of the four tournaments leading into his 2025 ISCO Championship victory, showing he is capable of producing a spike week with the flat stick.

Previous winners such as Cam Champ, Tony Finau and Jhonattan Vegas have all arrived at this event with poor putting form before excelling on these greens. With oversized putting surfaces that lack the complexity of many Tour venues, TPC Twin Cities can provide an opportunity for weaker putters to spike, so Mouw's putting numbers do not pose a major concern.

Emiliano Grillo at 80/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW

Emiliano Grillo's course form immediately stands out here. Finishes of 3-CUT-2-10-24-20 suggest he is something of a TPC Twin Cities specialist, and he arrives arguably in his best form of the season. He comes into this event with finishes of 20th, 23rd and 26th in his last three starts, including an impressive tied-23rd finish at the U.S. Open, where he sat tied sixth heading into the final round. Aside from a tied-seventh finish at the Valspar Championship in March, those are his three best results of the season.

As a genuine horses-for-courses type of player who appears to be finding form at the right time, Grillo makes plenty of appeal here.

There is some risk attached, however, with his iron play not quite firing at the level we would ideally want. His recent results have been heavily aided by excellent putting performances, ranking 33rd, sixth and third in Strokes Gained: Putting across his last three starts. That said, there have been encouraging signs with his approach play. He ranked 32nd for approach at the U.S. Open, producing his fourth-best approach performance of the season, and he ranked 22nd for approach five starts ago at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Realistically, he will likely need a season-best or near season-best iron performance to win here. However, we know Grillo is capable of taking on difficult pin positions when his game is in sync, and a return to a course where he has consistently performed could be enough to spark that improvement. If the putter continues to run as hot as it has in recent weeks, he is worth taking the chance on.

Another positive is his accuracy off the tee. Grillo ranks 12th in this field for driving accuracy this season, and with plenty of danger waiting for errant shots at TPC Twin Cities, his ability to consistently find fairways should keep him away from trouble and give him a chance to hit these big greens.