After a 50/1 winner last week, Harry Paterson picks out four to follow in the first round of the Bank of Utah Championship.
Benjamin James at 35/1 (Four Places) - 1.5pts EW
Despite the short price, I can't get away from Ben James here. Having turned professional this year, his start to life on the PGA Tour has been exceptional, with three top-four finishes already, two of which have come in his last two starts: a third at the Wyndham Championship at the start of August and a second last week at the Biltmore Championship.
That performance at the Biltmore saw him rank second in approach and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranked the same in the Wyndham Championship, so he heads here in undoubtedly some of the hottest form in the field.
I wouldn't talk you out of backing him outright this week, but his FRL profile looks good too. He has recorded four top-10 first-round finishes across his last eight starts.
In each of his last eight PGA Tour appearances, he has either shot the lowest or second-lowest score of the day in at least one round, with the exception of one event:
- Biltmore Championship: 61 in the final round – second-lowest score of the day
- Wyndham Championship: 62 in round one – second-lowest score of the day; 61 in the final round – lowest score of the day
- Rocket Classic: second-lowest score in round three
- Corales Puntacana: tied-lowest score in round two
- ISCO Championship: second-lowest score in round one
- Travelers Championship: lowest score in round two
- U.S. Open: second-lowest score in round four
He has the highest percentage of rounds gaining four or more strokes over the last six months and ranks second for first-round Strokes Gained over the same period. With his current form and clear ability to produce seriously low rounds, James looks difficult to ignore in the FRL market.
Jackson Suber at 40/1 (Five Places) - 1pt ew
Jackson Suber has already proven he can handle the test here at Black Desert, having finished tied 15th last year, and he arrives in excellent form. He comes into the event off the back of a tied-22nd finish at the Wyndham Championship and a tied-15th at last week's Biltmore Championship.
His performance at the Biltmore is particularly noteworthy, as he ranked first in the field for approach play and fifth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
His ball striking has been excellent all season. He ranks 15th on the PGA Tour for approach play this season and sixth in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 16 rounds. Another performance like last week's with his irons and he has every chance of going low.
His first-round form reads 3-37-13-26-1, and he ranks 10th in the field for first-round performance over the last six months.
That first-round victory came in impressive fashion, as he shot a 65 at The Open Championship, where he went on to lead for the first three rounds.
Over the last six months, he has the second-highest percentage of rounds in which he has gained four or more strokes. Of particular note:
- John Deere Classic: second-lowest score in Round 2 (64)
- Wyndham Championship: third-lowest score in Round 2
- Biltmore Championship: third-lowest opening-round score
Ben Kohles at 70/1 (Four Places) - 1pt ew
Ben Kohles has been one of the most consistent Round 1 performers in this field, ranking fifth for first-round Strokes Gained over the last six months and I think it could pay to keep following him.
He also has the third-highest percentage of rounds in which he has gained four or more strokes over the same period.
His recent PGA Tour form reads 3-15-9-26-29-15. He finished 15th last week at the Biltmore Championship after sitting tied third following the opening round and shooting the second-lowest score of the day in round two (63). He headed into the final round in second place, just one shot off the lead, but a 73 saw him slip down the leaderboard. He will arrive here eager to make up for that disappointing finish.
He ranked 16th in approach and 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last week, which is encouraging heading to a course where ball striking should separate the field. He also ranks first in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 36 rounds.
It is also encouraging to see his record in low-scoring events. Last week at Walnut Cove was yet more evidence that Kohles thrives when the scoring is low.
Kohles' performances in recent low-scoring events:
- Biltmore Championship Asheville (winner -26) – T15
- Rocket Classic (winner -18) – T26
- 3M Open (winner -25) – 9th
- ISCO Championship (winner -16) – T15
- John Deere Classic (winner -20) – T3
His best PGA Tour finish also came in a birdie-fest, when he finished tied second at 22-under at the 2024 RSM Classic.
He finished tied 20th here last year and sat tied 12th after the opening round.
He has also recorded three top-six first-round finishes across his last six PGA Tour appearances. That includes a first round lead by two strokes in the 3M Open when shooting a 9 under 62.
Michael Brennan at 40/1 - 1.5pt WIN
I was willing to leave Brennan out this week given that he is one of the market favourites, but the 40/1 available with AK Bets makes it worth a go.
Brennan arrives at the Bank of Utah Championship defending his title, having picked up his maiden PGA Tour win here last year. This time, he arrives just three weeks removed from his second PGA Tour victory, having secured the Wyndham Championship. He also finished 10th last time out at the BMW PGA Championship.
He looks primed to give this title defence a real go. A player like Brennan arriving in form on a course tailor-made for him is hard to ignore.
We all know what he can do off the tee. He is one of the longest hitters in the field and has gained more strokes off the tee than anyone in the field other than Neal Shipley over the last six months. On a course with the highest driving accuracy percentage on Tour and at altitude, he can overpower it with ease. He did exactly that when winning here last year, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee while ranking second for distance.
What will be most worrying for those hoping to see his title defence falter, however, is that his all-round game is clicking too. He ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 36 rounds and has finished inside the top 11 for approach play in three of his last five tournaments.
His putting has seriously impressed too. He is red-hot with the flat stick at the moment, ranking first in this field for putting over the last 16 rounds. He has ranked 23rd, third, second, 21st and 18th for putting across his last five starts.
Hopefully, he can follow in Michael Kim's footsteps last week and get his title defence off to a quick start with an FRL. There is plenty to suggest he can.
He has three top-10 FRL finishes in his last eight appearances and ranks third in this field for total first-round Strokes Gained over the last six months.
He shot rounds of 67, 65, 64 and 66 here last year, with the 65 the second-lowest score in round two and the 64 the fourth-lowest in round three.
There is also plenty of evidence from his last five performances that he can go low again:
- BMW PGA Championship: third-lowest score in round two (65)
- Wyndham Championship: third-lowest scores in rounds two and four; second-lowest in round three
- Rocket Classic: 65 in round one to sit T6; 64 in round three, the third-lowest score of the day
- 3M Open: 65 in round one to sit T5; 63 in round three, the second-lowest score of the day
He also has the third-highest percentage of rounds in which he has gained four or more strokes over the last six months in this field.
