First round leader tips for the Baycurrent Classic 2026.
Stephan Jaeger at 55/1 (Five Places) 1pt ew
Jaeger has a habit of following up strong first rounds with another the following week. He followed up his first-round leader finish at the PGA Championship with a fourth-place finish in round one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson the next week. Not long after that, he followed a third-place finish after round one of the John Deere Classic with another first-round lead the following week at the ISCO Championship.
His second-place finish after round one of last week's Bank of Utah Championship therefore bodes well for this week, where I fancy Jaeger to go low again.
He has finished inside the top six after round one in six of his last 12 tournaments and has all the tools to produce another low score here.
We're looking for a wedge and approach specialist who can keep it out of the trees and sink some putts here. Jaeger ranked ninth in approach last week at the Bank of Utah Championship and ranks among the best in the field for approach proximity with his wedges. He also ranked third around the greens last week and, over the last six months, has the ninth-highest percentage of rounds gaining two or more strokes with the putter, showing he can spike with the flat stick when it matters.
His accuracy off the tee is a slight concern, but if he can keep it out of the trees, his length off the tee can give him plenty of opportunities to capitalise on his strong short game. The majority of players near the top of the leaderboard in 2025 ranked above average for driving distance.
He ranks second in the field for percentage of rounds gaining five or more strokes over the last six months, so he clearly knows how to go low.
Matt McCarty at 60/1 (Five Places) - 1pt ew
Matt McCarty finished T14 here last year and shot both a 65 and a 60 in the process, with the latter two strokes clear of the next-best score in round two and the lowest round of the week.
He doesn't arrive here in red-hot form, but after a run of five missed cuts in seven tournaments following the Truist Championship in mid-May, he has come out the other side having made his last five cuts.
There has been plenty of promise from an FRL perspective, too. He shot a 66 in the Rocket Classic, which was among the lowest scores of round two, followed by two 66s at the Wyndham Championship, a 67 in round two of the BMW Championship and two more rounds of 66 last week at the Bank of Utah Championship. He hasn't quite broken into the round-leading scores yet, but at a course where he has already proven he can excel, he might be able to do so here.
His ball striking has been letting him down recently, but last week he hit his irons well in rounds one and three, ranking 24th and 14th respectively for approach in those rounds. His putter let him down, which is an anomaly for a man who ranks fifth in this field for putting over the last six months and had ranked inside the top 10 for putting in the three tournaments prior.
We only need his ball striking to come together for one round here, and if his putting returns to the level he has been operating at recently, a low score could follow.
Ben Kohles at 50/1 (WIN) - 1pt
At risk of following Ben Kohles off the cliff in the FRL market, I think he is worth another go here. Last week's opening-round 66, which left him tied 26th, was a solid start on his way to a tied-13th finish. It was also his third top-25 finish in his last four tournaments.
He has three top-six first-round finishes across his last seven PGA Tour appearances, including a first-round lead by two strokes at the 3M Open when he shot a 9-under 62.
He ranks fifth in this field for first-round performance over the last six months and has the eighth-highest percentage of rounds gaining four or more strokes over the same period.
He ranks third in approach when comparing each player in the field's last five rounds, while his wedge play is among the best in the field. He is also straight as an arrow off the tee. He isn't the longest, but his all-round game makes up for that.
Kevin Roy at 55/1 (Five Places) - 0.75pt ew
I think Kevin Roy could go well here and is worth a bet in the first-round leader market. He opened last week's Bank of Utah Championship with back-to-back 63s, sitting tied second after round one and in solo second at the halfway point.
He opened the Biltmore Championship the week before with a solid 67 to sit tied 17th, and not long before that, he opened the 3M Open with a 65 to sit tied fifth.
There is plenty of evidence that he can go low. Alongside the two 63s last week, Roy has shot a 64 in round four of the Biltmore Championship, a 66 in round two of the Wyndham Championship, a 66 in round two of the Rocket Classic, a 65 in round one of the 3M Open and a 65 in round three of the Scottish Open. He also has the 10th-highest percentage of rounds gaining four or more strokes over the last six months in this field.
He needs his irons to return to form after a poor showing last week. He ranked 13th and 15th in approach in the two tournaments before that, though, so hopefully last week's performance was just a blip. His round-two showing at the Bank of Utah, where he gained 2.3 strokes on approach, also suggests he has what it takes to put together at least one strong iron-playing round here.
